Did you all collude?

CN
6 hours ago

1.

Sun Ge is one of the top three people playing with traffic on Earth, first is Chuanzi, second is Musk, and third is Sun Ge.

This article by Brother Sun clearly uses vocabulary that ordinary people can understand, and mainly consists of short sentences, which can enhance the spread of information.

Do you think Brother Sun lost 30 million? Brother Sun just spent 30 million to buy the hottest trending topic on the internet, isn’t that more cost-effective than spending 6 million dollars on a banana last year? Isn’t that more cost-effective than having a meal with that old guy Buffett? Just so you know, Brother Sun can cancel on Buffett four or five times to have a meal.

2.

Wash's speech at the global central bank annual meeting today really boils down to one sentence: controlling inflation is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, with a hawkish attitude.

I feel that Wash is actually saying one thing: the Federal Reserve will still maintain the independence of its policy, it’s not a private asset of the Chuan family.

The market's response has been very direct: the probability of a rate hike in September has increased by 15% to 55%.

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Now the reaction of U.S. Treasuries is the most interesting, with the 30-year yield falling, the 10-year being volatile, and the 2-year rising.

This indicates that while the rate hikes are being priced in, the long-term bonds have shown support by rising. Previously, Wall Street representative Druckenmiller spoke out to express this view.

This means that as Besant said before, wanting to double the long bond repurchase scale, the bullet hasn’t even been fired yet and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has already come down, which means the market has verified that true rate hikes will not trigger a bond market collapse, allowing for bold hikes in September.

This also indirectly proves that Besant and Wash are playing a tacit game, the dollar is the most important commodity in the U.S. and even the world, and neither the Federal Reserve nor the Treasury can just watch the dollar's credit be destroyed in their hands.

So when specifically will they raise interest rates? The Federal Reserve generally raises rates when the market's expected probability of a rate hike reaches 70%. Right now it’s at 55%, leaving 20% of space.

Next there are: September 4: August Non-Farm; September 10: August PPI; September 11: August CPI; September 15-16: FOMC.

Just keep an eye on these time points, normally the probability of a rate hike will gradually increase, and when it reaches 70%, it will be implemented.

So if long-term bond yields peak, assets like gold and bitcoin will definitely be negatively affected, which presents a big opportunity here.

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