The counterfeit season has just started: 92% of tokens have risen, and the total market value has returned to 1 trillion.

Original ｜Odaily Star Daily (@OdailyChina)

Altcoin season has truly arrived this time.

With BTC strongly breaking through $80,000, it has driven a widespread increase in altcoins. According to Quantifycrypto data, out of the top 200 tokens by market capitalization, 184 altcoins have been on the rise over the past week, accounting for 92%, with only 16 tokens still experiencing declines; among them, ETH rose over 31%, BNB rose over 18%, HYPE rose over 34%, DOGE rose over 31%, and SOL also broke through $100, rising over 33%.

Weekly price fluctuations of the top 200 tokens

Within the top 100 altcoins by market cap, the five altcoins with the highest increases over the past week are STX (133%), ENA (85%), TRUMP (75%), PUMP (72%), and PENGU (68%).

STX (Stacks): Weekly increase of 133%, Bitcoin surge stimulates STX staking demand

STX (Stacks) is the altcoin that rebounded the most over the past week, with the rebound starting on August 19, rising over 133%, and the current price is temporarily reported at $0.28.

Stacks is one of the few Bitcoin L2s still operating. As a Bitcoin ecological project, the rise of Bitcoin directly benefits STX. In addition, on the fundamental side, Stacks has shown remarkable development over the past few months. In June, Stacks' active accounts reached an all-time high, attracting over 134,000 active users. At the same time, Stacks is the only Bitcoin L2 with native Bitcoin rewards, where users earn Bitcoin rewards by staking STX. As Bitcoin rises, user enthusiasm for staking increases, boosting demand for STX tokens and driving up the price.

However, the current price of STX is still about 92.7% below its historical high.

ENA (Ethena): Weekly increase of 85%, Arthur Hayes anticipates again

ENA (Ethena) rose over 85% in the past week, with the rebound starting on August 19, and the current price is temporarily reported at $0.15.

The first to predict ENA's rebound this time was Arthur Hayes, who stated in early August that ENA could achieve a 5 to 10 times increase in the coming months, with the catalysts being the rise in Bitcoin and large-scale short covering, which would drive up the basis return rate and lead to substantial capital inflow into USDe, thereby re-establishing a positive feedback loop for Ethena's yield-driven mechanism. (Related reading:Arthur Hayes’ new article: betting on the appreciation of the yen, ENA could rise 5 to 10 times in the coming months)

Secondly, FalconX announced a $1 billion secured loan financing mechanism with Ethena, which is also one of the catalysts. This financing mechanism will connect Ethena's on-chain liquid assets with FalconX's institutional borrowing needs, promoting on-chain capital into the traditional credit market.

However, the current price of ENA is still about 90% below its historical high.

TRUMP: Weekly increase of 75%, rumors of Trump launching new coin become the largest catalyst

TRUMP rose over 75% in the past week, with the rebound starting on August 19, and the current price is temporarily reported at $2.42.

The rebound of TRUMP is quite dramatic. Aside from market-driven factors, last weekend's rumor that "Trump will launch a new coin on the Robinhood chain" was the main reason for TRUMP's rise, initially pushing the price above $3.6. The official TRUMP team also took advantage of the situation to sell millions of tokens, cashing out over $9.15 million. (Related reading:Trump’s “pump and dump” guide: rumor-driven rally, massive sell-off, son’s clarification)

However, the current price of TRUMP is still about 97% below its historical high.

PUMP (Pump.fun): Weekly increase of 72%, Meme ecology revival as the largest catalyst

PUMP (Pump.fun) rose over 72% in the past week, with a significant single-day rebound starting on August 20, and the current price is temporarily reported at $0.0048.

Although PUMP experienced most of its single-day rebound starting August 20 due to favorable market conditions, the actual structure of PUMP’s rise began foundation building in early July, with a 46% increase in July, and a staggering 134% increase in August as the overall market improved. From the perspective of monthly increase, PUMP is the top-performing altcoin in the top 100 this month, yielding the highest returns.

Thus, the driving factors for PUMP's rise come more from Pump.fun's fundamentals. Pump.fun is one of the few projects in the market that continues to be profitable and uses its revenue to repurchase tokens. Pump.fun remains the leading meme coin launch platform on Solana and has directly benefited from the revival of the Solana Meme ecosystem. Pump.fun automatically uses 50% of its net income to repurchase PUMP on the open market, allowing PUMP to effectively capture protocol value and drive the price of the token up.

However, the current price of PUMP is still about 46% below its historical high.

PENGU (Pudgy Penguins): Weekly increase of 68%, community speculates project is about to go public

PENGU (Pudgy Penguins) rose over 68% in the past week, with the rebound starting on August 19, and the current price is temporarily reported at $0.01.

It is somewhat surprising that Pudgy Penguins, as the "forgotten gem" in the NFT space, could rise to the top five in this round of rebounds, something most investors may not have even noticed. Besides the market-driven factors, the biggest catalyst for PENGU’s rise was a post by founder Luca Netz on X platform.

On August 23, Luca Netz posted on X platform with content like the above image, featuring a pair of eyes, a penguin, and a building followed by an arrow saying "SOON". The community interpreted this building as a stock exchange, making the message clear: "Look, the penguin is about to go public soon."

In addition to the news front, from a fundamental perspective, Pudgy Penguins is also performing quite well. Pudgy Penguins is continuously expanding its offline sales channels, and retail has become a core favorable factor for Pudgy Penguins. Now, Pudgy Penguins plush toys and collectible figures can be purchased at Walmart stores across North America. On August 24, Luca Netz also announced that Pudgy Penguins dolls are now available at Target stores. In terms of revenue data, Pudgy Penguins' annual sales are expected to be around $50 million, with most coming from toys rather than token-related activities.

Pudgy Penguins is becoming the "Labubu" in the Web3 field, but the current price of PENGU is still about 86% below its historical high.

The altcoin season is still in its early stages

The clear recovery of the altcoin market has become a consensus in the market. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's statistics, from August 19 to 22, the total market capitalization of altcoins increased by about $215 billion, with a rise of over 24% in just three days, pushing the total market capitalization of altcoins to break through $1 trillion once again.

From Binance platform data, the signals of the altcoin market recovery are further strengthening. Since last November, about 80% to 85% of altcoins have been below the 200-day moving average (200-DMA), while currently, 56% of the altcoins listed on Binance have regained this key technical indicator, indicating that the market may be entering a new cycle phase.

Some investors are still worried that this altcoin rebound has lasted nearly a week, and whether there will be sufficient upward momentum in the future? Or will it, like the past, see the liquidity of altcoins return only for a short time? In this regard, Glassnode analyzes from the perspective of altcoin funding rates and believes that the altcoin trend may continue for several weeks during this period, stating that the altcoin market has entered an optimistic sentiment phase, with 85% of altcoin funding rates currently above their respective average levels, marking the highest level for this indicator since BTC was at its historical highs.

Of course, objectively speaking, the past market phenomenon of "Bitcoin rising leads to broad increases among all altcoins" may no longer exist. Even if the altcoin season arrives, it may only benefit a few tokens, and market funds will concentrate on the leading projects, with the trading volume of leading altcoins making up an increasingly large proportion of overall altcoin trading volume.

As analyzed above, the top five altcoins in terms of increase will increasingly depend on their own fundamentals, application scenarios, and independent capital inflows to drive up, which is also one of the significant features of this cycle of the cryptocurrency market.

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