This week, the market went crazy.

Bitcoin surged from $63,000 all the way to $80,000, gaining 23% in a single week — its biggest weekly increase in nearly three years. Short sellers were crushed, with total crypto short liquidations reaching as much as $7.2 billion over the past week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.92 billion in weekly inflows, the highest level in 10 months.

Gold wasn’t sitting still either. International gold prices climbed above $4,700 per ounce, hitting a three-month high. Since August, gold has gained more than 13%.

Bitcoin and gold taking off at the same time, within the same window, is not a coincidence.

The story starts with the U.S. Treasury.

On August 19, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced what initially appeared to be an insignificant move: the Treasury would at least double its buyback size for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds, increasing each operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Shortly afterward, reports emerged that the Treasury could potentially deploy as much as $950 billion in cash from its fiscal account to support long-term Treasury buybacks.

The market immediately understood what was happening: this wasn’t an ordinary buyback. It was essentially the Treasury’s version of yield-curve control — in plain English, the government itself was stepping in to push down long-term interest rates.

But where would the money to buy back long-term bonds come from?

The answer: issue short-term debt.

Bessent has described the operation as a “Treasury version of an Operation Twist.” The Treasury raises money by issuing short-term debt with its left hand, while using that money to buy back long-term debt and push down long-term yields with its right hand.

In other words, it is effectively borrowing short to reduce the cost of borrowing long.

But once those short-term Treasury bills are issued, someone has to buy them.

And that brings us to the second act of the story: stablecoins.

The GENIUS Act, passed last year, requires U.S. dollar stablecoins to be backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries and other highly liquid assets as reserves. In other words, every additional dollar of stablecoins issued corresponds to additional purchases of short-term Treasury securities.

That is exactly where Bessent’s strategy comes in.

The global stablecoin market currently has a total market capitalization of around $300 billion. But the U.S. Treasury forecasts that the market could eventually grow to nearly $4 trillion.

To put that into perspective, Citi Research has calculated that if the stablecoin market reaches $4 trillion by 2030, it could absorb roughly one-quarter of total U.S. Treasury issuance.

The contrast is even more striking: for every $1 of assets held by a traditional bank, only around $0.08 is allocated to U.S. Treasuries. For stablecoins, nearly $0.80 of every $1 must be backed by Treasury securities.

Stablecoins are therefore naturally positioned to become “super buyers” of U.S. government debt.

Last week, the White House specifically invited executives from the crypto industry to a meeting in the Roosevelt Room, where Trump pressed Congress to move quickly on the CLARITY Act.

On the surface, this is about supporting the crypto industry. But there is another layer underneath: the clearer the regulatory framework for crypto becomes, the larger the stablecoin market can grow — and the greater the pool of buyers available for short-term Treasury debt.

The regulatory tailwinds for crypto and the Treasury’s financing needs are perfectly aligned on this issue.

The market understood the story.

Bitcoin and gold then surged together.

The logic seems straightforward:

Long-term yields are pushed lower → the dollar weakens → scarce, fixed-supply assets become relatively more valuable.

Bitcoin and gold are essentially trading the same narrative: “The dollar is going to depreciate.”

Deutsche Bank came out directly in favor of buying gold. A strategist at MKS PAMP put it even more bluntly:

“The debasement trade is back. The only way out is monetary dilution.”

But there is a problem with this story.

Stablecoins have not yet actually filled the gap left by retreating foreign buyers in the short-term Treasury market.

Foreign investors sold a combined $72.5 billion of short-term Treasury bills in May and June, marking two consecutive months of selling.

Meanwhile, the Treasury holdings of stablecoin issuers have not increased significantly. In fact, the overall stablecoin market capitalization has even declined slightly over the past 30 days.

In other words, the grand narrative of “stablecoins stepping in to absorb U.S. Treasury debt” is, for now, still largely a story about expectations rather than something that has actually happened at scale.

More importantly, there is the issue of timing.

The Brookings Institution has made a fairly direct assessment: it would take much longer than President Trump’s current term for stablecoins to grow large enough to have a significant impact on the U.S. government’s financing costs.

The Wall Street Journal has expressed similar doubts.

But markets never wait for the fundamentals to fully materialize.

Expectations move first. Prices move first. The fundamentals catch up later — if they do.

What happened over the past week is essentially a signal.

With total U.S. government debt surpassing $40 trillion, and debt-servicing costs already consuming more than 60% of monthly tax revenues, the Treasury has chosen to intervene directly as long-term yields come under pressure.

That decision itself is sending a message to the market:

The credibility of the dollar is coming under increasing pressure from an ever-growing debt burden.

Bitcoin surged above $81,000 USDT, while spot gold briefly moved toward the $4,700-per-ounce level.

These two things happened within the same week, driven by essentially the same underlying narrative.

How far can this rally go?

It depends on how strongly the market continues to believe in the “debasement trade.”

And the ending of that story is ultimately written in the interest bill attached to $40 trillion of U.S. government debt.

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