TL;DR

• Goldman Sachs believes that the fundamental buying of gold is resonating with option funds, and dealers' hedging could become a short-term amplifier after a gold price breakout.
• Goldman Sachs maintains its gold price forecast of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, but this target does not yet account for a surge in macro policy hedging demand, indicating there is further upside potential.
• The Goldman Sachs trading desk observed that China and Western macro funds have synchronized in increasing their positions, with clients betting on gold rising to between $4,800 and $5,500 through options and spot trading.
• There has been demand for three-month digital options with a strike price of $90 in the silver market, but this represents client betting and not Goldman Sachs' official target price.
• Options positions can amplify gains but may also exacerbate pullbacks; if inflation rises again and raises interest rate expectations, dealer liquidations could create additional selling pressure.

Over the past 48 hours, gold has once again become the focus of global macro trading.

After breaking through a resistance range that lasted about half a year, the gold price further rose above the 200-day moving average, accumulating an approximate 15% increase from the mid-July low, at one point nearing $4,600 per ounce. The driving forces behind this rally have begun to shift from central bank and physical buying to include ETFs, macro funds and the options market.

Gold broke through previous resistance and regained the 200-day moving average, with the price nearing $4,600 per ounce.

According to ZeroHedge, citing Goldman Sachs strategists and trading desk reports, demand for gold call options has recently increased significantly. In addition to central bank purchases, Chinese imports, and ETF fund inflows, options trading is adding a new price amplification mechanism to the gold market.

This means that the future movement of gold may no longer be entirely determined by traditional supply and demand. As prices approach a dense cluster of option strike prices, dealers' passive hedging could further push up the gold price; conversely, if the trend reverses, the same mechanism could amplify potential declines.

Call Options Heat Up, Gold Price May Break $4,900

Goldman Sachs has observed that investors are once again hedging global macro and policy risks through gold call options.

The difference between open interest in gold call options and put options has risen sharply, indicating a significant increase in demand for gold call options. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Call option sellers typically need to dynamically adjust their risk exposure based on changes in gold prices. When the gold price approaches a critical strike price, sellers of options may need to buy more gold or gold futures to maintain hedging. Such buying is not based on new fundamental judgments but could create additional demand during price increases, accelerating the price's approach to the next strike range.

Goldman Sachs refers to this as a "mechanical price amplifier." If ETF funds continue to flow in and call option positions remain high, rising gold prices will prompt dealers to increase hedging purchases, which in turn could push prices higher, creating short-term positive feedback.

However, this mechanism is two-sided. When gold prices decline, dealers will unwind previously established hedges, thereby increasing market selling pressure. Hence, the more concentrated the option positions are, the more volatile gold may be near critical price levels.

Goldman Sachs' current fair value forecast for gold at the end of 2026 remains at $4,900 per ounce. This forecast is primarily based on two assumptions: that global central banks continue to have strong gold demand, and that as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, Western private investors will increase allocation to gold ETFs.

The report notes that the Federal Reserve held rates steady in July, combined with weakening U.S. employment and CPI data, which has cooled expectations for further rate hikes. The major macro resistance that previously suppressed gold has therefore weakened, leading to a restoration of COMEX net speculative positions and demand for interest rate-sensitive ETFs.

As Federal Reserve rate hike expectations cool, gold ETF holdings and COMEX net speculative positions have started to recover, resonating with the rebound in gold prices.

It is worth noting that the $4,900 forecast does not take into account the impact of rising demand for gold call options. Goldman Sachs gold analyst Lina Thomas therefore believes that the current target price faces "significant upside risks." If Western investment demand continues to recover and resonates with central bank buying and macro policy hedging demand, dealers' hedging behavior near critical strike prices could push gold prices significantly above $4,900.

The fund flows observed by Goldman Sachs' trading desk are also becoming more aggressive. Client trading has increased significantly this week, including digital options with expirations of three to six months as well as direct purchases of gold, with target ranges concentrated between $4,800 and $5,500. The trading desk currently maintains a moderately high long exposure while also betting on volatility, skew, and directional risk.

It's important to differentiate: $4,900 is the year-end fair value forecast from Goldman Sachs' research team; the $4,800 to $5,500 range reflects client trading targets observed by the trading desk and should not be considered an official target price adjustment by Goldman Sachs.

China, Central Banks, and ETF Purchases Together Provide Support

Before the influx of option funds, the bottom support for gold mainly came from China, central banks, and ETF investors.

The Goldman Sachs trading desk stated that this week, both Chinese funds and Western macro funds have continued to buy gold, accelerating further after the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond buybacks. Some investors believe that the U.S. Treasury's more proactive intervention in long-term bond supply and demand may have more long-term impacts reflected in the dollar and gold rather than U.S. Treasury yields themselves.

The trading activity in the Chinese market is particularly notable. The Shanghai market recently recorded two days of price increases ranking among the top five in the past five years, but the total gold holdings in China are still about 25% below historical highs, leading Goldman Sachs to conclude that current positions have not reached extreme crowded levels.

Physical imports also remain elevated. Data shows that China's gold imports in July were 135 tons, down from 173 tons in June and slightly below the average monthly level of 144 tons in the first half of 2026. However, the decrease mainly resulted from reduced imports into bonded zones, while customs-cleared imports remain basically stable.

Since the beginning of this year, China's total gold imports have increased by 444 tons year-on-year, an increase of about 80%. Goldman Sachs believes this additional demand is sufficient to offset the impacts of the announced slowdowns in central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows. CTA funds are also shifting, with Goldman Sachs' model indicating that trend-following strategies have covered gold shorts and begun to increase long positions, with momentum indicators remaining somewhat positive.

During 2026, cumulative non-monetary gold imports in China have significantly outpaced the same period in 2025, continuing to support gold prices.

Central bank demand remains an important pillar of Goldman Sachs' long-term logic for gold, but official data is generally disclosed slowly, making it difficult to reflect actual purchasing conditions in real-time.

Goldman Sachs uses Britain's export of gold to China as a proxy indicator for observing official demand from China. In the second quarter of 2026, Britain's average gold exports to China reached 37 tons per month, significantly higher than the monthly level of 15 tons in 2025.

Other reserve management institutions are also resuming purchases. Turkey is gradually buying back gold it sold during the early conflicts, with its positions adjusted post-swap at about 809 tons, close to the historical high of approximately 822 tons. Among the 55 reserve management institutions tracked by Goldman Sachs, only Russia is currently in a net reduction state.

These figures cannot be equated to real-time net purchases by various central banks, but they at least indicate that the official sector's allocation trend towards gold has not experienced a significant reversal.

Gold is Too Expensive, Funds Begin to Bet on Silver Upside

The rapid rise in gold prices has also shifted some speculative demand towards silver.

Goldman Sachs trader Adam Gillard pointed out that when gold prices reach higher levels, retail investors often turn to silver, which has a lower unit price. This substitution effect may be one reason for the recent increase in silver options trading.

This week, there has been a demand for three-month digital silver options with a strike price of $90 per ounce. Digital options are products that pay fixed returns if the price reaches a specified level at expiration and are typically used to bet on low-probability but high-elasticity market movements.

Thus, "silver at $90" more accurately means that some large clients are buying short-term options triggered at $90, and it does not represent Goldman Sachs predicting silver will reach $90 within three months. The lower implied volatility and higher option skew make such tail bets attractive to certain clients.

Compared to gold, silver lacks the structural demand from central banks, and China is also a net exporter of silver. Therefore, the logic behind silver's rise relies more on the spillover effect from gold, retail fund switching, and the expansion of speculative positions, making its price movements more elastic and less certain.

The current bullish logic for gold is based on several factors: continued central bank purchases, strong Chinese imports, recovery of Western ETF demand, cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and the amplification of upward trends through options hedging. A reversal in any of these factors could weaken the trend.

The greatest macro risk remains a resurgence of inflation. If inflation rebounds and prompts the market to reprice Federal Reserve rate hikes, real interest rates and the dollar may rise, leading ETFs and speculative funds to withdraw from gold. Meanwhile, a drop in gold prices away from critical strike zones would encourage dealers to unwind hedges, turning the options mechanism that originally drove prices upward into additional selling pressure, causing a more severe correction than usual.

The current changes in gold are due to both long-term allocation demand and short-term trading funds pointing upwards simultaneously. The target price of $4,900 corresponds to the fundamental scenario of a recovery in central bank and ETF demand, while client trading in the range of $4,800 to $5,500 and the $90 digital options in silver reflect that funds are betting on more elastic tail events.

What truly needs to be observed next is whether ETF inflows can sustain, whether gold can approach dense strike zones, and whether Chinese and central bank buying can continue to support high prices. Options can accelerate market movements but cannot replace the real funding needs that support market trends.

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