Let's briefly discuss the recent market situation, providing ideas rather than directions; this round started on August 17, impacting high positions from the low of 62723 to the high of 79555, facing a weekend to Monday in a range digestion phase. Lao Cui returned to the market also on the previous day, August 16, starting to publish posts, and the previous thoughts were centered around the technical aspect of the 62000 position, always believing that a breakthrough must first wash out positions. The result is that both rounds of adjustment are above 62000, with the lowest point touching 62200. Lao Cui also feels that the cleaning action is insufficient, using a conservative method, which is to short the contract while participating in the spot market, and so far there has been no change in direction. A major reason is that there are too many spot users currently in a profitable state, without any special plans for opening positions. Especially in the face of the current trend, Lao Cui feels powerless to cope with short-term fluctuations, and the layout has already been a preemptive involvement for the spot market.

The thoughts had previously been discussed in depth with everyone, many friends saw below 60K or even in the range of 45K-50K, based on the information at that time and the technical analysis, indeed, there were opportunities for even lower levels. Lao Cui's answer was conservative, telling everyone that anything below 70K is worth buying, and buying at 60K would already be profitable, clearly many lack confidence. In the last two days, many users communicating with Lao Cui are in a flat position or even in a loss position. Why has this happened? The problem is very clear; everyone wants absolute lower points, which naturally leads to missing out on intermediate gains. For users with losing short positions, if they have already locked in their positions, there is no need to worry too much; the probability of an interest rate cut in September is still low; as long as this rise can be endured, a pullback will appear in September, with at least a deep decline of around ten thousand points. Why didn’t I urge everyone to chase this wave of trends? It’s due to Lao Cui's lack of confidence in the current stablecoin legislation; news of this kind impacting mid-line beneficial news, although a rise of ten thousand points is clear, a rise of twenty thousand points is also very normal, but it ultimately still needs to be attributed to the funding support from interest rate cuts; as long as there are no interest rate cuts, there is always the possibility of a market crash.

Lao Cui summarizes: Regarding the mid-line bullish strategy, Lao Cui's advice is to give up; the support at the technical level is also very simple: the previous round's drop point at 92000 has become the pressure point for this impact; I believe many friends have seen other analysts' analyses on the 92000 position, which is correct, but the results may vary; combined with the ETH/BTC ratio forming a golden crossover where the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average, rising about 25% from the low on June 6. The possibility of continued growth is also significant; in Lao Cui's estimation, this growth may not be as rapid, and it is highly probable that such an achievement cannot be reached. Observing the actions of whales, the selling power is also very strong, with sell-offs led by MicroStrategy continuously intensifying, and this round of impact is highly likely to end by the end of August. Today's revealed probability of an interest rate cut is also very clear, with a 59.0% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in September; if this news is confirmed, the market is very likely to reverse; coupled with the booming other industries, the follow-up funding connections in the cryptocurrency circle have certain risks, and everyone should be cautious when chasing long positions, as it may just return to around 70K, and falling below is just a matter of time. There is no need to rush with locked positions; during this period of growth, try to pull the average price of short positions up to around 73000 and wait for the decline! 92000 is a trend pressure point, not a short-term pressure point, so do not misinterpret it; it is more like a dividing line between bulls and bears!

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