Yesterday, the market showed a brief correction, with insufficient deep affirmation, seemingly indicating that there will be breakthroughs in the future; combined with what Old Cui said, the Clear Bill is indeed grand enough, but everyone’s expectations regarding the timing may still have some deviation. The difference between the Clear Bill and the Genius Bill lies in the vested interests; the issuance and income of the stablecoin bill will involve a share for the SEC, while the larger vested beneficiaries of the Clear Bill will be American politicians who stand to gain more. This can be seen from the newly added presidential ethics clause, which clearly stipulates that the president cannot issue currency; strategies in this form cannot be realized in the short term. Whether it is the partisan struggle or the regulatory power of the SEC, it all requires time for negotiation. One point favoring the stablecoin bill is that there is not much disagreement; overall, wanting to issue stablecoins still cannot bypass the endorsement of the dollar, which is the supervision of the Federal Reserve, making it easier to pass.

From recent voting, both the Federal Reserve and other parties, even members of Trump's cabinet, still have opposing views, and Old Cui can only say that there is a long way to go. Looking at it politically, the United States is currently clearly not prioritizing the advancement of the cryptocurrency sector, with more attention focused on the pricing in the crude oil energy sector, with suppressing domestic inflation being the primary goal. Instead of anticipating the passage of the bill, it would be better to await a rate cut from the U.S.; the probability of a rate cut this year is likely greater than the probability of the bill passing. The ability to pass the stablecoin bill this time is basically aimed at the mid-term elections, and everyone should not expect this impact to maintain a bullish trend. Old Cui's personal estimate suggests that after passage, there may not be a new low, and the intensity of this impact is unlikely to touch around 90,000 at high positions. Currently, the capital support is only sufficient to maintain the operation between 80,000 and 90,000, and if it is confirmed later that there will be no rate cuts this year, then the price will likely drop further.

Old Cui summarizes: Observing the capital can reveal some things. Since the last round of probing sales, MicroStrategy has sold over 6,000 bitcoins starting from June 30, realizing more than $400 million; in yesterday's statistics, an unknown giant whale sold 7,700 BTC in three days, worth $576.6 million, but there was no deep correction in the price. This indirectly indicates the firmness of the upward trend; the performance of whales makes Old Cui unable to be optimistic. Coupled with the rebound in the gold market, the accumulation of tokens like SanDisk, and the stability of the U.S. stock market, it is not positive news for the cryptocurrency space. This time, Old Cui can only regard the market as a rebound; if anyone has a need to realize their spot holdings, they may consider selling before the Federal Reserve meeting. The news of a rate cut is subject to different interpretations; if there is only one rate cut this year, it is most likely to occur between November and December, with the timeline being too long before then, making it hard for prices to be sustained. Old Cui's personal opinion is that there will still be a wave of correction in the 90,000-110,000 range; only after this ends will be the time for everyone to enter. Before that, especially for the users in Old Cui's hands, holding onto Bitcoin at around 60,000 is the best choice, and the exit timing will be announced. In the short term, do not chase the highs; wait for the signals on Monday before making a decision!

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