Crypto Circle Daily | Latest News
Core Drivers
On August 20, favorable policies related to Trump triggered a major rebound in cryptocurrency, with BTC surging over 11% in one day, breaking through $70,000, ETH rising over 19%, and SOL climbing over 13%, followed by a high pullback in the next two days.
In just three days, the same whale sold 7,770 BTC (approximately $577 million), creating heavy selling pressure at the $80,000 mark.
The market maker Wintermute transferred a total of 3,834 BTC (approximately $257 million) to Binance this week; today, it transferred another 129,500 SOL (approximately $12.42 million) and 169.5 BTC to Binance, along with another 407.47 BTC to Coinbase, raising concerns about selling pressure.
Macro and Geopolitics
An additional peace agreement in Iran pushed risk assets higher and oil prices lower, with BTC momentarily lifting to $77,800.
The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5.273%, the highest since 2007, as concerns over US dollar credit risk grew, leading investors to seek to hedge with sovereign credit risk-free assets such as gold and BTC.
Bridgewater founder Dalio warned that a US debt crisis "could arise within three years," suggesting a portfolio allocation of 10-15% in gold and holding a small amount of BTC to hedge against risks.
The federal funds rate remains at 3.50-3.75%, with a 9:3 split in the July FOMC (three votes in favor of raising interest rates), and there remains uncertainty in the market regarding the pricing of a rate hike in September.
On-chain and Sentiment
The Fear and Greed Index is at 27 (Fear), indicating a cautious market sentiment.
BTC's market share is at 59.39%, down 0.44% from the previous day, with funds diversifying into altcoins.
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing is only 10%, and positive regulatory expectations are fading.
Bulls are still positioning: Strive resumed accumulation of 31 BTC after a two-month hiatus; El Salvador increased its holdings by 7 BTC in the last seven days.
Altcoin Highlights: Zcash reached an all-time high of about $850; Hyperliquid's HYPE surged 16.5% in 24 hours to a new high.
After the surge on August 20, the market experienced a two-day correction, operating in a "profit-taking after surge + whale selling" phase, but the medium-term structure has not been damaged.
BTC Intra-day Strategy and Entry Points
Technical Analysis: The four-hour MACD bull momentum is fading, with high-level stagnation; RSI has pulled back from extreme overbought levels; the price is fluctuating above the critical support of $76,000, with major selling pressure from whales at $80,000.
Main Strategy: Buy on Pullback
• Entry Range: $74,500 – $75,000
• Stop Loss: Below $73,500
• Target 1: $77,500 – $78,000
• Target 2: $79,000 – $79,500
• Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:2.5
Alternative Strategy: Short on Rebound (Aggressive)
• Entry Range: Encounter resistance at $78,500 – $79,000
• Stop Loss: Above $80,200
• Target: $76,500 – $75,500
Key Observation: If $74,000 holds, there is still a chance for a second push to $80,000; if it breaks effectively, a deeper correction to the $70,000-$72,000 range could occur. The $80,000 level is the battleground for bulls and bears, and a breakout could see $82,500-$83,000.
ETH Intra-day Strategy and Entry Points
Technical Analysis: The hourly MACD has a death cross but the green bars are shrinking, indicating signs of a low-level golden cross; the daily MACD is still above the zero line, indicating a preference for the long term; the 1-hour RSI is neutral at 49; the price is oscillating near the critical support of $2,400.
Main Strategy: Buy at Support
• Entry Range: $2,380 – $2,400
• Stop Loss: Below $2,330
• Target 1: $2,490 – $2,500
• Target 2: $2,560 – $2,600
• Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:2
Alternative Strategy: Short on Break
• Entry: Confirm on pullback after effectively breaking below $2,380
• Stop Loss: Above $2,430
• Target: $2,300 – $2,270
Key Observation: The ETH/BTC exchange rate is weakening, with ETH's decline being greater than BTC's, indicating a short-term preference for BTC; if $2,400 is lost, it may accelerate the drop towards the strong support at $2,268.
SOL Intra-day Strategy and Entry Points
Technical Analysis: Daily RSI peaked at 81-84, severely overbought; the price has encountered resistance and fallen multiple times in the $94-$96 resistance zone; MA50 is at $77.42, indicating an overall bullish structure but significant short-term correction pressure.
Main Strategy: Short at High Levels (Overbought Reversion)
• Entry Range: Encounter resistance at $94 – $96
• Stop Loss: Above $98
• Target 1: $89 – $90
• Target 2: $86.8 – $87
• Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:2.5
Alternative Strategy: Buy After Significant Drop
• Entry Range: Stabilize at $86 – $87
• Stop Loss: Below $84
• Target: $92 – $94
Key Observation: Wintermute transferred 129,500 SOL (approximately $12.42 million) to Binance today, indicating clear short-term selling pressure. If RSI drops from the overbought zone to below 60 and the $89 support holds, there could be a re-positioning for long positions.
Six. Comprehensive Analysis
Short Term (Intra-day): Profit-taking after a surge + whale selling dominates, with BTC/ETH/SOL all facing correction pressure, primarily operating in high sell/low buy ranges, without chasing the price. The core volatility range for BTC is $74,500-$79,000, ETH $2,380-$2,500, SOL $87-$96.
Medium Term (This Week): Focus on three variables—whether the key supports at 76,000/2,400/89 can hold; whether Wintermute and whales will continue selling; the situation in the Middle East and the trend of US Treasury yields. If supports hold, this round of rebound still has the potential for a second push upward.
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