After 130,000 people liquidated 2 billion, why can Bitcoin still continue to rise? 72,500 becomes the next line of life and death.

After 130,000 people were liquidated for 2 billion, why can Bitcoin continue to rise? 72,500 becomes the next life and death line

In the past two days, Bitcoin's market has clearly accelerated.

The market once experienced a massive liquidation, and the previously consolidating market suddenly broke upwards, with prices surging from over 60,000 dollars to around 72,500 dollars.

However, what is truly worth reviewing is not "how much it has risen," but:

Why were many people washed out in this wave of the market, while trend traders were able to make a profit?

The answer is actually very simple——the market changed, but many people's trading logic did not change.

1. Don’t let news intoxicate you

Recently, the liquidity and activity in the market have indeed rebounded.

One important catalytic factor is that U.S. regulators have released more positive signals regarding digital asset regulation. The market's expectations for the compliance of digital assets have warmed up again, and funding sentiment has thus clearly improved.

Such news is certainly good for the market.

But the question is:

Can it truly become the core driving force of a sustained upward trend?

My answer is: we cannot judge this at the moment.

Because this rise is essentially driven more by news + sentiment recovery + technical breakthroughs, rather than a brand-new narrative that can change the fundamentals of the entire crypto market.

Past major market movements in the crypto space are often accompanied by new gameplay, new funding channels, or a new market narrative.

Inscriptions, Zoo, Uniswap, and other hot topics during different cycles have brought significant increments to the market.

But what about now?

Currently, the market has not seen a sufficiently strong new gameplay.

So, this rise can be strong, but it cannot yet be simply understood as "the new bull market has fully started."

This is also why the more the market sentiment rises now, the more we need to remain calm.

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2. The really important thing is that the price structure has not been broken

Why did we dare to continue to go long around 63,300 dollars previously?

Not because we guessed a specific news, but because the price structure itself has been continuously rising.

From the 4-hour level, the previous low points have been consistently increasing, and then the price broke above 70,450 dollars.

More importantly:

After breaking 70,450, the price did not quickly fall back.

This means that this rise is not just a simple spike.

After the price broke, it underwent horizontal consolidation, then tested 72,500 dollars again upwards.

This is typical of:

breakthrough → digestion → retesting previous highs.

So the most important question now is no longer "Has Bitcoin risen too much," but:

Can 72,500 dollars really hold strong?

3. 72,500 dollars is the most critical resistance level at the moment

From multiple cyclical resonances, the pressure around 72,500 dollars is very clear.

This position is both an important horizontal pressure ahead and corresponds to a key position in technical indicators.

The price has repeatedly impacted 72,500-72,600 dollars, but has not yet formed a stable hold.

So in the short term, do not simply interpret it as:

"If it can't get above 72,500, the top has arrived."

We cannot make that judgment yet.

A more accurate statement should be:

Unilateral rise is turning into high-level digestion.

The speed of the rise is beginning to decline, but the overall structure still leans bullish.

If the price can effectively hold 72,500 dollars thereafter, then the next clearer target area is:

73,900-74,000 dollars.

And if 74,000 dollars breaks further, then the market space will truly open up.

4. 4-Hour Structure: The Trend is Still Bullish

The most important feature at the 4-hour level currently is the continuous rise of the low points.

After breaking 70,450 dollars, the price did not fall below the original trend structure, but continued to rise.

Therefore, the current 4-hour level is still:

High-level consolidation within an upward trend.

However, there is obvious pressure around 72,500 dollars, so the price needs time to digest.

At this time, the most taboo is:

Seeing the price consolidate and thinking the trend has ended;

Seeing the price fall back and thinking the trend has reversed.

In fact, a real trend reversal must be accompanied by the destruction of a key structure.

Currently, we have not seen such signals.

5. Daily Line Has Completed a Key Breakthrough

Changes at the daily level are even more important.

Earlier, in August, Bitcoin was in a relatively obvious narrow consolidation range.

However, after the 19th, the price directly broke above the previous upper boundary of the box.

So now the question is no longer:

"Is Bitcoin still within the box?"

But rather:

After the breakthrough, can the price be kept at a high level?

This is the area that needs the most observation on the daily line going forward.

Currently, the first important observation area is:

70,450 dollars.

If it can hold 70,450 after a pullback, then the effectiveness of this breakthrough remains relatively high.

Conversely, if the daily line falls back below 70,450, then the bullish structure in the short term needs to be reassessed.

6. Open Interest Tells Us: The Rise is Real, But Be Cautious When Chasing Highs

There is another noteworthy aspect of this market movement:

Trading volume and open interest have indeed expanded synchronously.

After news broke, trading volume expanded rapidly, and open interest also clearly increased, indicating that the breakthrough did not lack participation from funds.

However, after exceeding 70,450 dollars, the price started to digest horizontally, while open interest showed a certain decline.

This seems more like some funds taking profit.

The issue lies here:

If the next time Bitcoin approaches 72,500 dollars,

the price rises while open interest continues to increase,

then it indicates that new funds are willing to support at high levels, and the sustainability of the rise will be significantly enhanced.

But if the price keeps testing 72,500, even occasionally breaking slightly above, while open interest continues to decline,

then we need to be cautious:

High-level baiting.

So right now, simply focusing on the candlestick lines is not enough.

What we should pay attention to next is:

Whether price, trading volume, and open interest are synchronized.

7. Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: Large Cycles are Repairing

The moving average system is still relatively strong.

The 5-day, 7-day, and medium-term moving averages have turned upwards again, while important moving averages like the 20-day, 60-day, and 90-day have also been broken successively.

But the real pressure has now come to the long-term moving averages.

Currently, the 240-day moving average is around 72,400 dollars.

This also aligns well with the resistance at 72,500 dollars.

So you will find:

Why is it that 72,500 keeps being hit but not broken through?

It’s not that the market lacks strength, but rather that this area itself is a densely packed pressure zone across multiple cycles.

If the 240-day moving average is effectively broken, then the area corresponding to the upper long-term moving averages can further see around 82,000-83,000 dollars.

But this does not mean that the price can go directly to 82,000 dollars now.

There is still the important pressure level of 74,000 dollars in between.

So trading cannot see the endpoint in one step.

First look at 72,500, then look at 74,000, and finally discuss 82,000.

8. The Signals from MACD, DMI, and RSI are not Contradictory

Currently, MACD overall is tilted towards bulls.

The momentum at the 4-hour level is still relatively strong, and the daily line has turned from a previous weak state into a golden cross and continues to release momentum.

The weekly level is also repairing, but it cannot be said that the large-scale trend has completely reversed.

DMI is the same:

In the short cycle, bulls are significantly dominant, 4-hour trend strength is high; the daily direction has turned upward, but there is still room for trend strength to continue to improve; the weekly line is still in a phase where the bearish advantage is weakening, waiting for further confirmation.

This indicates a very important problem:

A strong short-term trend does not mean that the large cycle has completed a bull market reversal.

So the most reasonable market definition now is not "blindly bearish," nor is it "blindly bullish."

Rather:

Short-term is strong, large cycles are repairing, and the overall oscillation is tilted upwards.

9. The RSI has Already Told Us: Don’t Chase Highs When Sentiment is Hottest

The RSI is currently in a relatively strong area in the short cycle.

Many people see overbought and immediately think:

"It’s going to drop."

But that’s not necessarily true.

In a strong trend, the RSI can maintain high levels for a long time.

So the more important significance of the current RSI is to remind us:

The rise has consumed a lot of short-term space.

In other words, while the market can continue to rise, the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs is no longer as high as before.

At this time, it is more suitable to wait for a pullback and confirmation, rather than jumping in directly after seeing a big bullish candle.

10. What to Do Next? Remember the Key Levels

Now, combining all cycles, the trading logic has become very clear.

First Support: 71,800 dollars

This is the position that needs to be focused on in the short term.

If the price pulls back to 71,800 before rising again, it belongs to normal high-level digestion.

Second Support: 71,000 dollars

If 71,800 is lost, we need to observe whether 71,000 can provide support.

Core Defense: 70,450 dollars

This is currently the most important daily structural position.

As long as 70,450 is not effectively broken, the overall bullish structure has not been truly destroyed.

First Resistance: 72,500 dollars

This is the current key position.

Effectively holding here will allow the market to continue upwards.

Repeatedly testing but failing to hold, while open interest decreases, indicates a need to guard against high-level baiting.

Second Resistance: 74,000 dollars

Breaking through 72,500 does not mean we can directly see 82,000.

74,000 still has significant multi-cycle pressure.

Only by breaking through here can the market open up greater upward space.

Finally: The most important thing now is not to guess the top, but to track the trend

This round of rise has proven one thing:

Once a market trend is formed, do not easily change your trading logic due to short-term fluctuations.

From around 63,300 dollars all the way to above 72,000 dollars, the ones who really benefited from this market movement were not those who predicted each rise or fall, but those who could identify trends, control risks, and hold their positions.

But we should also remind everyone:

A rise does not mean we can mindlessly chase after it.

Currently, the market has entered a high-level digestion phase.

72,500 dollars decides whether the short term can continue to break upwards;

74,000 dollars decides whether the upper space can be further opened;

70,450 dollars is the important defense line for the current bullish structure.

So do not speculate going forward.

Let the price tell us the answer.

When others are greedy, we remain vigilant; when others are fearful, we seek opportunities.

This saying will never go out of date in any cycle.

As long as the trend is not broken, do not easily go bearish; as long as key levels are not breached, do not blindly chase highs.

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