In this live broadcast, we will tie together the key narratives of the US stock market, major financial markets, and the cryptocurrency circle from the past three days, as many seemingly scattered pieces of news can actually clarify the current market rhythm when viewed together.
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Now, let's get back to the main topic and start with this week’s most-watched inflation data.
First is the CPI data for July, which came out at 8:30 PM Beijing time on August 12. The final data was basically in line with market expectations: year-on-year rate of 3.4%, month-on-month rate of 0.1%, core CPI year-on-year rate of 2.5%, month-on-month rate of 0.2%. After the data was released, the overall market reaction was quite muted, without any significant bullish or bearish trends, which acted as a half reassurance for the market.
Some friends may often hear about CPI, but not fully understand it; in fact, it can be simplified in one sentence: it measures how much the prices have increased for ordinary people's daily purchases and services.
Single data cannot illustrate the entire macro trend, but putting together a few key indicators clarifies the direction: declining inflation, weakening employment, cooling consumption, and slowing GDP usually indicate an economy that is cooling down, which in turn raises the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. This serves as a fundamental reference for our investments in all major asset classes.
Focusing solely on one data point can easily lead to misjudgment; for instance, if you only see that inflation has dropped, you might confidently think interest rates will be cut soon and risk assets will surge, but if employment and consumption remain strong, the market may believe the Federal Reserve won’t be in a hurry to act. Therefore, the more dimensions of data you reference, the more accurate your assessment of the major trend will be.
After discussing the CPI, we must then look at the upcoming PPI data. Many people tend to confuse these two, but they can be easily distinguished: CPI looks at whether goods are expensive for consumers, while PPI examines whether the costs and factory prices on the production side are rising.
If the PPI trend is mild, then the downward trend of CPI will have stronger support, and tech stocks and crypto assets can continue to have emotional backing; however, if PPI exceeds expectations and rises, the dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to rebound, leading risk assets to face pressure.
We should also factor in the elements of crude oil; recently, Brent crude oil has been hovering around $90, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and shipping risks are always hanging variables. If energy prices continue to operate at high levels, the subsequent volatility of inflation will be stronger.
Hence, this set of PPI data is particularly critical for friends who trade in the short term, especially those working with contracts. Market fluctuations can rapidly spike or plummet around the time data is announced; you can assess the direction slowly, but if your position is too heavy, a few quick movements on the K-line can easily get you washed out before you have a chance to see the direction clearly.
It's not just in the US; the logic of Japan's inflation data is even more complex. They not only look at CPI, but also pay close attention to wage growth, service prices, and economic growth, while also assessing whether inflation is sustainable, thus considering more dimensions.
The next piece is the most significant news from the US stock market and the AI sector in recent days, marking a new phase for AI sentiment.
On the evening of August 10, Beijing time, Nvidia announced collaborations with Wall Street giants such as Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create a financing platform for AI computing infrastructure, with the goal of attracting over $500 billion in third-party capital.
This sounds grand; put simply, it means: AI is very cash-consuming right now. Companies developing large models, running inference, and building data centers incur costs for GPUs, servers, electricity, networks, and cooling, all of which require funding. Nvidia is no longer just selling chips; it is now helping the entire AI infrastructure solve the question of “where does the money come from.”
A few years ago, trading AI sentiment was straightforward — just buy Nvidia. GPUs are central to computing power, with huge orders and good performance, and stock prices naturally follow the funds. However, now the market is beginning to look deeper: who will build the data centers, who will supply the power, who will bear the massive upfront investments, and how will computing power be transformed into long-term contracts and stable cash flow.
Thus, Nvidia bringing in Wall Street giants is essentially aimed at resolving funding challenges for AI expansion. The bigger the demand for computing power, the heavier the initial investment in infrastructure; relying solely on the asset balance sheets of tech companies makes it difficult to sustain such significant expenses seamlessly.
The impact of this move is also clear: Nvidia's ecological barrier will only strengthen. As long as AI data centers keep growing, its hardware, networks, and software will be deeply tied. Companies like CoreWeave, which provide AI cloud services, will continue to gain market attention — its latest quarterly revenue reached about $2.58 billion, with approximately $10.42 billion in pending revenue orders, and it has raised its capital expenditure expectations for 2026 to between $35 billion and $39 billion. This figure is quite staggering and indirectly indicates that the demand for AI computing power is still advancing.
Moving forward, the market will also re-evaluate AI infrastructure; previously, everyone focused solely on chips, but now attention will gradually extend to data centers, power supply, optical modules, storage, and cloud services. Of course, in the short term, this will undoubtedly fuel the AI narrative, but whether this can be sustained in the medium to long term will ultimately depend on whether the demand for computing power can be genuinely fulfilled.
After discussing AI in the US stocks, let’s return to the cryptocurrency market and talk about the most concerning topic, BTC.
Recently, BTC has been oscillating around $63,000 and is likely swaying at this position during this live broadcast, with no clear direction overall.
You may have noticed that, recently, when the market rises, it meets resistance, and when it falls, there’s capital buying; the market is stuck here waiting for new catalysts. Sideways trading can be most tedious, as many people just chase long positions only to see them pull back, and those who short see the market rebound; the direction hasn’t established yet, and quite a bit in fees has been paid beforehand, leading to a frustrating mindset.
During this period, everyone has been discussing the continuous selling of coins by Strategy, which does not necessarily indicate “institutions are bearish on BTC.” It more so reminds the market that the fiscal asset allocation of listed companies ultimately has to be influenced by real financial arrangements. When a company buys BTC, they also have to balance their stock price, financing, preferred shares, cash reserves, and investor expectations; selling coins doesn’t necessarily indicate a bearish outlook but is more about their financial planning.
Finally, let’s talk about a risk event worth being vigilant about and offer a reminder to everyone.
On August 12, Beijing time, Harmony's ONE token experienced a security incident, where attackers minted about 4 billion ONE without authorization, directly increasing the total supply by more than one-fourth.
After the news was released, the price of ONE plummeted, and the project team is working with exchanges to freeze the involved funds while preparing a patch for repairs, even considering a rollback plan.
Although such events have limited impact on the overall market, they are particularly suitable for risk education. The core of Harmony's problem this time is the scale of the issuance; when a token suddenly has an extraordinarily large supply out of nowhere, the market's first reaction is to worry that these coins will flood the secondary market and question whether the project team can control the situation and whether the subsequent plan will gain the community’s backing.
This brings to mind the ZEC event from earlier; I wonder if you have any recollections of it.
At that time, the Orchard privacy pool had a vulnerability; although it was urgently patched later, due to Zcash's focus on privacy properties, it was impossible to prove whether the vulnerability had been exploited before the disclosure. The incident caused the price of ZEC to drop directly from around $620 to a low of $250, which was approximately a 60% decrease.
Therefore, when encountering such security incidents, don’t just focus on the significant drop and think about bottom fishing; first, check the project announcements, exchange notices, and on-chain fund movements before deciding whether to participate. While price drops may appear enticing, the restoration of the supply system and community trust takes time, and subsequent fluctuations can be significantly more intense than usual.
The cryptocurrency market never lacks opportunities, but the risks are also deeply hidden. Mainstream coins like BTC and ETH primarily look at macro factors, while smaller coins require additional considerations regarding security, liquidity, and project governance. Price volatility is merely a surface result; the stability of supply and community trust is the fundamental backbone of any asset.
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