Since the beginning of August, the cryptocurrency market has maintained a volatile pattern and has not yet emerged in a true larger direction. One of the core reasons remains the uncertainty of monetary policy expectations in September. Before the macro direction becomes further clarified, both bulls and bears lack the confidence to actively initiate trend rallies.
Yesterday's CPI data basically met market expectations, and the market briefly surged after the data was released, but ultimately fell back again, indicating that the positive news did not bring sustained new capital. The market has now re-entered a basing phase, and a genuine trend breakout will still need to wait for a new catalyst.
From the 4-hour structure, BTC is still operating within a clear range. The greatest risk in this market is not misreading the direction, but rather repeated spikes and shakeouts. Therefore, it is not suitable to chase the market in the middle range; it is more appropriate to wait for the price to approach the upper and lower bounds of the range before looking for opportunities.
Overall, the market is processing pressure through time. The longer the fluctuation lasts, once a breakout is completed, the magnitude of volatility release is often greater.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Range-bound volatility, look for recovery during the day, and focus on direction selection at night.
Current market sentiment remains cautious, liquidity continues to contract, and both bulls and bears have not seen significant new capital entering, hence the price continues to maintain narrow fluctuations.
The daily chart has entered a typical shrinking volatility phase, with the MACD's DIF and DEA gradually converging and flattening, and both the red and green histogram momentum are very limited, indicating that the current trend strength is further contracting.
However, there have been some positive changes in the short cycle.
Currently, there are signs of bullish acceleration in the 1-hour timeframe; if subsequent trading volume can increase accordingly, one round of short-term rally may occur, retesting the 64500-65000 resistance area.
But it should be noted: **A short-cycle rebound does not indicate a large cycle reversal.** Until there is an effective breakout and stabilization above the upper bound of the range, it should still be treated as a volatile market.
Support: 63200-63500, 62200-62500
Resistance: 64500-65000, 65500-66000
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: First look for a rebound; the daily adjustment has not ended; still need to guard against a pullback after a surge.
ETH is currently also in a bottoming phase of volatility.
On the technical side, the EMA7 and EMA30 have closely converged, which is a typical signal of unclear direction; at the same time, the Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, indicating that volatility is being compressed, and a new directional choice is getting closer.
The current price is running above the middle Bollinger band at 1885, and the short-term structure has improved somewhat.
In terms of cycles, the 1-hour and 2-hour charts have basically adjusted adequately and have conditions for a technical rebound; however, the daily chart is still in a bearish cycle.
Therefore, during the day, it is more inclined to observe the strength of the rebound first. If there is a noticeable stagnation after hitting the 1900-1930 area, it will be necessary to re-warn that the daily adjustment may continue.
Support: 1872, 1850-1862
Resistance: 1900-1910, 1930, 1965
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