The U.S. budget deficit in July hit a record high, and interest expenses for this fiscal year surpassed one trillion. This news sounds quite alarming, but Bitcoin's reaction has been rather muted, slightly decreasing to $63,423. On the other hand, an Ethereum ICO whale has made a profit of 6060 times over 11 years and has transferred 2000 ETH to Coinbase, suspected of wanting to sell. One side shows macro favorable conditions while the other faces on-chain selling pressure, causing a significant tug on market sentiment. Today, August 13th at 11:30, Bitcoin is quoted at 63,573 USDT, a 24-hour drop of 0.29%, and the Fear and Greed Index is only 29, indicating that the market is still in the fear zone.

Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin closed at 63,573, with the 5-day moving average at 63,904, the 10-day moving average at 64,250, and the 30-day moving average at 64,358. The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the MACD histogram’s negative value is still expanding, with DIF at -55 and DEA at 39, indicating a dead cross state. RSI is at 40.65, leaning weak but not yet oversold. On the 4-hour level, the price is around 63,631, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages closely aligned, and a clear resistance from the 30-day moving average at 64,391. The MACD histogram is at -55.75, with DIF at -290 and DEA at -235, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released, and RSI is at 42.61, similarly weak. On the 1-hour level, the price is at 63,523, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages flattening out, and the 30-day moving average at 63,683. The MACD histogram has turned positive to 11.16, with DIF at -93.79 and DEA at -104.95. Although it is still in a dead cross, the histogram bars are shortening continuously, indicating that the downward momentum is exhausting, with RSI at 40.67 showing signs of recovery. On the 15-minute level, the price is at 63,553, with moving averages converging, the MACD histogram at 12.30, and DIF and DEA about to form a golden cross, with RSI at 47.64 indicating some short-term rebound demand.

Using the Qingshan TPV system for verification, the current price is 63,573, with the 1-hour EMA55 at 63,863.70, placing the price below EMA55, within the bearish trend area. In the past 8 one-hour candlesticks, the closing price above EMA55 occurred 0 times, and the crossing over occurred 0 times, with the absolute distance from EMA55 at 0.46%, not meeting the oscillation threshold, indicating that we are currently in a one-sided bearish trend. For short-selling conditions, the price has closed below EMA55 for 2 consecutive one-hour candlesticks, satisfying the first condition. However, the second condition is facing resistance, and we have not seen significant long upper wicks or top distribution structures. The third condition indicates a lack of strength in rebounds; even though the MACD histogram is shortening, RSI has risen from around 40 but hasn’t reached above 70 and then retreated, leading to an incomplete short-selling condition. For long conditions, the price has not stabilized above EMA55, and the first condition is not met, so no long signal is formed. Overall, the trend is biased towards bearish, but short-term momentum is exhausting, requiring a clear signal.

On-chain data shows a Fear and Greed Index of 29, with market sentiment leaning towards fear, often a signal of bottom areas. BTC's market share is 56.27%, indicating that funds are still seeking refuge in Bitcoin and not flowing en masse into altcoins. On the news front, a Coldcard vulnerability has caused a massive migration of 233,000 Bitcoins worth 15 billion dollars, spreading security panic and increasing short-term selling pressure. A private key leak has led to another 25 million dollars being stolen, with the same address having previously suffered a phishing loss of 24 million, with frequent security incidents intensifying investors' concerns over asset custody. However, on the other hand, the U.S. deficit is hitting new highs, and debt interest has surpassed one trillion, enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge asset. Coinbase supports AI agents for customers, and the SEC has approved funds to use on-chain money market funds; these compliance advancements are long-term positives. In the short term, negative news is more direct, with security incidents and major whale sell-offs exerting greater pressure on the market.

The key offensive and defensive levels see the first resistance at the 1-hour EMA55 of 63,863, the second resistance at the 4-hour 30-day moving average of 64,391, and the third resistance around the daily 5-day moving average of 63,904. The first support level below is at 63,500, a position tested multiple times recently, with the second support at the integer mark of 63,000 and the third at around 62,000, which is the previous low area. If 63,500 is breached, there is a high probability of testing 63,000, and further down is the strong support at 62,000.

Trading thoughts suggest a bearish bias, but the risk in chasing shorts is high. It is advisable to short on rebounds to resistance levels. Entry conditions include if the price rebounces to the range of 63,850 to 63,950, and the 1-hour candlestick closing price does not recover above EMA55 while a long upper wick or top distribution structure appears, one could lightly short. The stop-loss should be set above 64,200, with the target looking at 63,000 and further to 62,000 if breached. If the price directly drops below 63,500 and volume increases, one can follow the trend to short, with stop-loss set at 63,800 and target at 63,000 and 62,000. For long positions, it is necessary to wait for the price to stabilize above EMA55, with two consecutive one-hour candlesticks closing above 63,863, and a bottom distribution or long lower wick structure must appear before considering lightly trying longs, with a stop-loss set at 63,400, and targets at 64,300 and 65,000. At this stage, staying out of the market and waiting for signals is also a good choice, as there is no need to trade forcefully when the trend is unclear.

Risk warning: Frequent security incidents and major whale sell-offs may trigger sharp short-term fluctuations. Be cautious in position control and strict in stop-loss measures.

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