Today's Core News Summary (August 12, 2026)

1. Macro Core: Evening CPI Data Sets Direction, Market Enters Wait-and-See Mode
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. will announce the July CPI data, with market expectations for a year-over-year increase of 3.3% and core CPI year-over-year up 3.5%. The data outcome will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September. If inflation exceeds expectations, it will strengthen rate hike expectations and suppress risk assets. Conversely, if it falls below expectations, it will warm up rate cut predictions, benefiting the cryptocurrency market. Currently, market trading is extremely cautious, with the U.S. dollar index fluctuating within a narrow range, U.S. stock futures showing slight volatility, and the cryptocurrency market remaining stable as it waits for the data to break the balance.

2. On-chain Funds: Whales Buying the Dips, Staking 90,000 ETH Locked Up
On-chain data shows that whale address 0x2d59 has recently accumulated 90,000 Ethereum (worth about $170 million) and has transferred all positions into staking contracts, indicating long-term holding confidence. Solana is also witnessing institutional-level accumulation, with a single large address increasing its holdings by about 1.15 million SOL (worth about $8.8 million), positioning against the market's fluctuations. The large capital's low-position accumulation provides some downside support for ETH and SOL.

3. Selling Pressure Continues: Strategy's Sell-off Effects Not Yet Resolved, ETF Inflows Slow
The bearish effects of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) selling 1,690 BTC are still being digested, and market concerns about listed companies cashing out at high levels are suppressing bullish sentiment. On the funding side, the inflow scale of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has shrunk significantly from last week's peak, and the institutional capital's support is weakening marginally; whereas the Ethereum ETF continues to maintain stable net inflows, with funds rotating towards leading Altcoins.

4. Sentiment and Sectors: Fluctuations in the Panic Zone, Meme and DeFi Partially Active
The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remains around 32, still in the "fear" zone, with overall market risk appetite low. The sectors show a divided pattern: Dogecoin leads mainstream Memes with a daily increase of over 3%, while Injective (INJ) surges nearly 7%, ranking first among the top 100 cryptocurrencies; meanwhile, AVAX and other public chain coins have slightly retreated, with funding biased toward small-cap speculative plays before the CPI, while mainstream coins' volatility significantly decreases.

Mainstream Coin Strategies and Entry Points Reference
The following is a technical analysis compilation for market viewpoint reference and does not constitute any trading advice.

1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Market Qualitative Analysis: The 4-hour level maintains a narrow range of $63,000-$64,500, with the Bollinger Bands continuously narrowing and volatility compressing to recent lows; the downside support is at $63,200 for short-term trading, $62,800 as a medium-term bull-bear dividing line, and the upper range pressure at $64,500. It is very likely to maintain range operations before CPI.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $63,300 – $63,400 (daily short-term support, recent lower range)
◦ Strong Support: $62,700 – $62,800 (bull-bear dividing line; falling below returns to short-term weakness)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $64,300 – $64,400 (daily high point + 7-day moving average resistance)
◦ Strong Resistance: $65,000 – $65,200 (whole number level + previous high transaction area)

• Reference Thoughts:
◦ Consolidation around $63,200–$63,400 may attempt longs with light positions, stop-loss below $62,800.

◦ If a rebound occurs at $64,200–$64,400 under pressure, a short position may be attempted with stop-loss above $64,800.

◦ Primarily focus on light-position high selling and low buying in the range before CPI data, avoiding heavy positions to bet on a singular outcome, following the trend post-data release.

2. Ethereum (ETH)
Market Qualitative Analysis: The performance is significantly stronger than Bitcoin, with support around $1,860 being solid; whale staking and ETF fund inflows provide fundamental support; the upper $1,900 whole number level is short-term pressure, while the overall oscillation center gradually rises, maintaining a sound mid-term repair structure.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $1,870 – $1,875 (daily short-term support, oscillation center)
◦ Strong Support: $1,850 – $1,860 (bull-bear dividing line; falling below slows rebound pace)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $1,900 – $1,905 (whole number level + daily high pressure)
◦ Strong Resistance: $1,930 – $1,935 (100-day moving average resistance)

• Reference Thoughts:
◦ Support around $1,850–$1,860 may attempt longs with light positions, stop-loss below $1,835.

◦ If a rebound occurs at $1,895–$1,905 under pressure, a short position may be attempted with stop-loss above $1,920.

◦ If volume effectively stands above $1,905, it may trend toward the $1,930-$1,935 range.

3. Solana (SOL)
Market Qualitative Analysis: Supported by whale accumulation news, it performs better than most mainstream coins, with support around $75 confirmed effective, the short-term rebound structure neutral to slightly strong; however, it still relies on overall market trends, and independent upward momentum is limited. If CPI data turns bearish, there is still a risk of further declines.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $75.3 – $75.6 (daily short-term support)
◦ Strong Support: $74.3 – $74.6 (bull-bear dividing line; falling below returns to weak oscillation)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $77.0 – $77.3 (near previous high points)
◦ Strong Resistance: $78.2 – $78.5 (mid-term high transaction area)

• Reference Thoughts:
◦ Stabilizing around $74.5–$75 may attempt longs with light positions, stop-loss below $74.2.

◦ If a rebound occurs at $76.8–$77.3 under pressure, a short position may be attempted with stop-loss above $78.0.

◦ If it breaks through $77.3 with volume, it may trend toward around $78.2, while falling below $74.3 should be avoided.
Additional Operational Reminders

1. The evening CPI data is a major macro event with extremely high market uncertainty; fluctuations are likely to amplify around the data release. It is advised to significantly reduce positions and strictly set stop-losses before the data to avoid holding a position to bet on a singular outcome.
2. Core variables to observe during the day: CPI data performance, real-time response of the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, and Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows.

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