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BTC silence is approaching a critical point; a liquidity sweep may occur before the trend starts

Bitcoin continues to "play dead" around $64,000, with the current price approaching the macro downtrend line formed by the peaks of $124,600 and $82,200. Data shows that Bitcoin has been consolidating in the range of $58,000 to $67,000 for about two months, a trend highly similar to the period from June to August 2022. Analyst Killa points out that the current Bitcoin market is at a critical crossroads: either a failing breakout is underway, or the bottom has been established. He emphasizes that once there is a true breakout of the macro downtrend line, confirmation at the weekly level is more important than short-term noise.

Market judgments on key positions are becoming concentrated. Trader Akash analyzes that the area between $64,800 and $68,200 is gathering a large amount of short liquidity, while there exists a dense long liquidity between $60,000 and $62,900. The market is currently squeezed from both sides, and before the trend starts, a liquidity sweep may occur, and a retreat to around $61,300 after clearing the upper liquidity for BTC is not ruled out.

BIT believes that the biggest contradiction for Bitcoin right now is the lack of clear incremental demand. If there is a continued net inflow into ETFs, Coinbase basis turns positive, or volatility expands upward, the market is likely to confirm a demand recovery; conversely, if it falls below the cost base of short-term holders, the current low volatility may translate into selling pressure, and tonight's U.S. non-farm payroll data will be a key catalyst influencing market direction.

Today's Highlights:

• Coinbase will suspend trading for IDEX, LRC, OMNI, PIRATE, and FIS on August 8

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BSB, KMNO, XRP, ZBT, BTC

• Bitcoin spot ETF: +$129 million, continuing four days of net inflow

• Ethereum spot ETF: +$92.1509 million, continuing three days of net inflow

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: BEAT up 31.3%, BTW up 21.9%, LIT up 7.1%, ADA up 6.3%, ENA up 4.1%.

The three major futures indices remain cautious before the non-farm payrolls; storage and optical communication strengthen

The three major U.S. indices futures maintain a cautious sentiment before the non-farm payrolls, with Dow futures falling by 0.09%, Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.32%, and S&P 500 futures rising by 0.08%.

BIT Night Trading Data shows that in overnight trading, storage rebounded slightly, with Micron Technology, SanDisk, and SK Hynix rebounding about 2%. Optical communication stocks continued to strengthen in overnight trading, with Lumen Technologies rising over 5%, Lumentum rising nearly 3%, and Coherent and optical module ETF LYTE rising over 2%.

Atlassian, which has reported outstanding earnings, soared about 31%; Cloudflare, although net profit missed expectations, raised its full-year earnings forecast, soaring 16%; Twilio's Q2 revenue and adjusted profit both exceeded expectations, soaring about 18%; Airbnb soared over 8% in after-hours trading due to a significant upward adjustment in its full-year performance guidance.

Tonight, the market focuses on the non-farm payroll data, whether the AI software rebound can continue, whether the optical communication sector will take over, and whether energy and precious metal-related assets will continue to fluctuate due to oil prices and inflation expectations.

"Big Short" Burry shorts Oracle and Nebius, Tom Lee bets on the S&P 500 index rising to 8000 points in August

Due to profit-taking before the non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns triggered by rising oil prices, the three major U.S. indices collectively fell on Thursday, with the Dow ending its five-day winning streak. Iran plans to block the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude oil to rise by 5% to $82.9. Google has launched a $25 billion mega bond issuance, raising concerns about tightening liquidity in the market, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to briefly touch 4.70% during the trading session.

The earnings season for tech stocks is nearing its end, and investors' tolerance for the "high investment, high valuation" AI narrative has significantly decreased. Although about 84.8% of S&P 500 constituent companies exceeded earnings expectations, the market focus has shifted to future earnings guidance, and concerns about the constraints of computing power expansion due to electricity, memory, and capital expenditures have intensified. However, Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, still claims that the S&P 500 will aim for 8000 points this month, firmly believing in the long-term narrative of AI earnings growth, and remains optimistic about semiconductors, software, and the seven tech giants.

The AI application software and storage sector faced severe setbacks, with Western Digital plummeting 13.03% due to a weak revenue guidance, SanDisk falling 6.81%, and storage concept stocks like SK Hynix dropping nearly 5%. Roundhill Memory ETF dropped over 4.5%. AI application software stocks also faced heavy selling, with Applovin and Datadog each dropping over 19%, HubSpot falling over 19%, and Salesforce dropping over 3%. Renowned investor Michael Burry disclosed yesterday that he shorted Oracle at $144.63 and shorted Nebius at $211.77, betting on their GPU depreciation being too slow, leading to inflated profits.

Space and energy concepts, on the other hand, broke through against the trend, with SpaceX rising 6.14% despite the pressure of a $100 billion unlocking; Musk announced an investment of $16.8 billion with Tesla to construct the Terafab superchip factory, aiming for an annual production of 1 terawatt of computing power, which boosted the performance of space concept stocks like Redwire. The optical communication sector strengthened due to increased infrastructure demand, with AXT Inc rising over 9%, Astera Labs rising over 4%. Analysts believe the market is reassessing the sustainability of AI infrastructure, and long-term capital has begun to reduce positions in areas like information technology.

Cryptocurrency concept stocks are collectively under pressure in the macro headwind, according to BIT US Stocks data, Coinbase and Robinhood fell 2.99% and 2.25% respectively, while stablecoin giant Circle received support from Bernstein, maintaining a target price of $140, as institutions believe its Q2 financial report thoroughly crushed the market's bearish logic.

The mining sector experienced an even greater decline, with CleanSpark and MARA dropping over 5%, and they announced their financial reports after market hours, with CleanSpark's Q3 revenue plummeting 30% and a massive loss of $240 million reported; MARA's net loss in Q2 was as much as $611 million. Bitcoin's computing power has decreased by 19% over nine months, setting a record for the longest decline in history, with some electricity capacity shifting towards AI hosting.

Additionally, the BIT US Stocks Trading Competition has officially begun. Users who complete registration and meet the standards during the event can share a cash prize pool of $30,000, with a maximum individual prize of $6,000. The top three trading volume rankings will also have the chance to win physical prizes such as the iPhone 17 Pro Max, DJI drones, or Meta AI smart glasses. The competition runs until August 29 and is limited to BIT US Stocks users who have completed KYC.

Korean stocks face a record seven consecutive declines; Hong Kong stocks active in large model concepts

The KOSPI index in Korea has dropped over 5% this week, marking the longest consecutive decline since December 2022, with a cumulative decline of 5.1% this week. The pressure comes from high-level adjustments of storage chips, deleveraging in the AI sector, and forced cooling of previously crowded trades.

SK Hynix fell nearly 5% today, with the company announcing a dividend of 375 Korean won per share after market hours and plans to disclose shareholder return policies in Q3 while considering additional shareholder return measures. Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim stated that the most intense adjustment in storage is nearing its end, with attractive valuations, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on Samsung and SK Hynix, with a target price indicating over 60% upside potential, and raising SK Hynix’s 2026 EPS forecast by 13%.

BIT believes that Korean storage stocks may experience valuation recovery in the short term, but whether they have truly bottomed will still depend on whether gross margins, cloud vendor orders, and long-term supply agreements can meet expectations.

Overall, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in Asia as the market waits for the U.S. non-farm payrolls. Hong Kong stocks are active in large model and PCB concepts: MINIMAX-W surged nearly 25% during the session, while Zhizhu rose over 17%, having increased by 41.54% and 26% this week. Previously, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's AI large model annual recurring revenue in 2026 from $10 billion to $13 billion and is optimistic about related targets like MiniMax and Zhizhu AI.

Next to watch:

The U.S. July non-farm employment report on August 7 at 20:30: Wall Street's forecast range for new job additions varies widely from 18,000 to 83,000. If the data is strong, it will strengthen expectations for the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance or even raise rates in September, boosting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, while suppressing growth stocks, gold, and BTC. Conversely, if the data is very weak, amid rising oil prices, it may trigger "stagflation trades," potentially amplifying volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies, and the cryptocurrency market.

On August 8 at 4:30: CFTC will release the gold holdings report as of August 5. The market will validate whether the recent rise in gold and silver was due to CTA short covering or proactive institutional long accumulation. If active funds are absent, gold may face a buying vacuum above $4,200 to $4,300; if longs continue to accumulate, the bullish trend in precious metals is likely to continue.

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