The adjustment is not over, expectations remain unchanged, patiently waiting for the next layout opportunity—BTC, ETH market analysis (August 6, 2026)
Recently, the overall cryptocurrency market has continued its volatile trend, with the pace of price movement significantly slowing down, but the overall market structure has not fundamentally changed.
In fact, as early as July 30, I stated that the recent pullback from the highs is more likely to be an adjustment during the upward process rather than the beginning of a new downward trend. Therefore, there is still no need to be overly bearish on the current market.
The entire trading mindset has remained consistent: wait for the adjustment to end, wait for the market to complete the final bear trap, and look for the next bull layout opportunity at relatively low levels. What really deserves attention, however, is the last trend decline of the bear market after this round of increases.
Many investors believe that if the market is waiting for the "last drop," then the last drop may not occur. This viewpoint is actually not valid.
The market always has only two directions: up and down, and before a true directional choice, all actions of the major players are essentially just traps for bulls, traps for bears, or preparation for the final trend. One cannot assume that just because there is a consensus expectation in the market, the行情 will definitely move in the opposite direction; otherwise, trading analysis and market forecasts themselves lose their meaning.
The biggest feature of the late bear market: the行情 is slowing down
The biggest feature of the current market is not the direction, but the pace.
As the bear market gradually comes to an end, market liquidity continues to decrease, transaction activity continues to weaken, which makes the speed of price movements significantly slow down, and the volatility is becoming smaller.
This trend is one of the most typical characteristics of the late bear market.
Currently, the market is in such a phase, so while the short-term trend may appear repetitive and grinding, it does not mean that the overall logic has changed.
BTC trend analysis: currently still within the adjustment structure
From the weekly structure, the overall trend still conforms to previous expectations.
After forming a strong weekly bullish candle, the market has been in a four-week horizontal consolidation. Structurally, a more reasonable developmental path should occur after sufficient adjustment is completed, followed by a new round of upward movement of the same level.
At that time, what was hoped to see was a further price retraction, completing adjustments through time and space, before launching an upward行情.
However, the market did not choose this mode of operation and directly rebounded without completing sufficient adjustments.
Many investors therefore believe that previous judgments about the行情 have become invalid.
In reality, this is not the case.
The biggest change in the market currently is merely the changing rhythm of the adjustment, not a change in the overall structure.
In other words, the current upward movement can still be understood as a component of the entire adjustment structure, rather than the beginning of a new trend行情.
What was previously expected was:
Adjustment ends—creates a bear trap—initiates upward movement.
But what the market has actually done is:
Adjustment is not yet over—first completes a phase of rebound—then completes the remaining adjustment.
Thus, the overall market logic has not changed; it has only extended the adjustment period.
The adjustment has entered a reasonable area
From the Fibonacci retracement perspective, this round of rebound has reached the 0.5 to 0.618 retracement zone.
This position is itself the most typical and reasonable adjustment area in technical analysis.
Next, what deserves more attention is whether the market will complete the final phase of adjustment.
If there is another drop subsequently, forming a bear trap structure in the key support area and showing clear signs of stopping the fall, then the entire ABC adjustment structure is likely to be completed.
At that time, the most noteworthy layout opportunity for the next round of upward movement will arrive.
Therefore, what truly needs to be done now is not to chase the price up, but to patiently wait for the market to complete the final segment of adjustment.
No need to deliberately participate in the last bearish segment
Regarding the potential drop in the last segment, I still believe there is no need to deliberately participate.
The reason is quite simple.
From the current structure, this round of decline has not formed a typical impulsive wave, but is more like an adjustment wave.
Since there is still a chance for a subsequent upward movement, it is not worthwhile to take on high risks for the small profit of this last segment.
In comparison, it is more worth waiting for the bullish opportunity after the adjustment is completed.
Of course, if the market ultimately does not retrace but continues to rise slowly, then this segment can be completely abandoned.
What is truly worth participating in remains the last bearish trend of the bear market.
ETH trend analysis: overall stronger than BTC
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's current structure is slightly stronger.
In late June, when the low was formed, it did not break the previous low, so the overall structure remains more complete.
The previous spot layout has been completed, so the current focus is more on the evolution of subsequent trends rather than short-term fluctuations.
From the structure, Ethereum is still within a typical platform-type adjustment after three waves of upward movement.
This consolidation structure inherently has the potential for new highs.
If the bulls further exert force, it may also evolve into an extended fifth wave.
Of course, there is another scenario where, as Bitcoin completes the final adjustment, Ethereum also sees a drop to reconfirm the bottom.
Regardless of the trend, both belong to the normal evolution of the market and will not change the overall judgment.
The biggest advantage of spot trading lies in the sense of security
For investors who have completed their spot layouts, the biggest advantage currently is not profit, but manageable risk.
Even if the market continues to have adjustments, there is enough time to wait for the next round of行情 to start, without needing to frequently operate due to short-term fluctuations.
Therefore, there is no need to overly focus on short-term rises and falls, and it is more important to patiently wait for the overall adjustment structure to be completed.
Lack of liquidity is the biggest characteristic of the current market
If you observe the hourly trends, you will find that there have been frequent occurrences of up and down spikes and rapid liquidity sweeps in the recent行情.
This trend is a typical manifestation of market liquidity shortage.
After the decline in trading volume, prices are more susceptible to influence from a small amount of funds, making short-term up and down fluctuations more frequent, while the overall trend advancement speed significantly slows down.
In comparison, Bitcoin's overall trend still appears slightly stronger than Ethereum.
ETH/BTC Analysis
ETH/BTC has broken through the previous downward trend line and achieved a certain degree of increase.
Therefore, whether there is a technical adjustment at the current position or if it continues to refresh the short-term high before entering a correction, both are normal movements.
Short-term fluctuations will not change the overall structure.
Market Outlook
Based on the current market structure, the overall judgment has not changed.
In the short term, the market still needs to complete the third phase of adjustment before it is more likely to start the next upward round.
From the timing perspective, this round of long opportunities will likely gradually appear around next week, and at that time, focus on the entry signal after the adjustment ends.
Meanwhile, in late August, especially around August 20, it is still important to pay attention to the last trend bearish opportunity of the bear market.
However, compared to previous rounds of declines, this last round of trend bearishness is likely to have shorter duration and less downward space, so it is not advisable to have overly high expectations.
Summary
The biggest feature of the current market is not the change in trend, but the further extension of the adjustment cycle.
BTC is still operating within the adjustment structure; although there has been a recent rebound, it still belongs to a part of the previous pullback, and what deserves attention is the new upward trend after the completion of the third phase of adjustment.
ETH's overall performance is relatively stronger, but similarly, it also needs to wait for the adjustment to be thoroughly completed to welcome more certain opportunities.
Therefore, the most reasonable strategy at this stage is still to maintain patience and wait for the market to complete the last adjustment, rather than blindly chasing the price up at the current position.
Based on the current timing rhythm, next week is expected to welcome a new round of long layout window; while in late August, it is necessary to pay close attention to the last trend bearish opportunity of the bear market. After this round of行情 ends, most trading opportunities of this bear market will basically be completed, and the market may enter a low volatility, low liquidity consolidation phase, at which point the significance of continuing to trade frequently will significantly decrease.
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