Recently, the market has slightly rebounded, and several friends who just entered the circle have started shouting: “57,000 iron bottom has appeared,” “the bull market is returning quickly,” “if you don’t get on the train now, you will miss the entire bull market.”

To be honest, after seeing several days of continuous rises, I almost couldn’t resist jumping in to catch the bottom.

Just this Wednesday evening, I attended a live market session at 【Domi Club】, and after listening to the teacher break down the logic of the long-term cycles and the details of the market, I suddenly realized: I almost fell into the trap of being lured by the rebound!

1. A low price does not mean the bottom has been reached

In the past, when I judged whether to catch the bottom, my logic was very simple and crude: “It has dropped from 70,000 to 57,000, it has fallen so much, it should be at the bottom now, right?”

But the teacher’s first sentence in the live session woke me up: A low price does not mean the trend has reversed.

The teacher led us to review the historical bull and bear cycles. In past bear markets, the duration mostly lasted around a year, with adjustments often reaching 70%—80%. According to the technical analysis of Domi Club, the current market’s duration and adjustment depth are still far from being able to conclude that “the bear market has ended.”

For weekly and monthly charts, if there are no clear reversal signals, do not rush to conclude that the bull market has returned just because there have been two strong upward candles in the short term.

2. The rebound is strong, but “rebound ≠ reversal”

This is the pit I fell into most frequently in the past: during a downtrend, the price suddenly surged for a few days, and with everyone in the community cheering, I was particularly afraid of missing out on a big rally, so I rushed in, only to buy at the peak of the rebound.

The teacher revealed the essence in the live session: bear markets rarely drop straight down to the bottom; there are inevitably several strong rebounds along the way.

The teacher taught us, when seeing a rebound, don’t rush in; first, ask yourself these 4 questions:

1. Has it broken through the key resistance level?
2. Can it hold above the level after breaking through?
3. Is the trading volume continuously expanding?
4. Has the major trend moving average turned stronger again?

If none of these signals are present, then this uptrend is likely just a correction within the downtrend and may even be a meticulously designed trap to lure buyers.

3. Why does my stop-loss always get “wicked out”?

I believe many friends trading contracts have had this frustrating experience: clearly seeing the right direction, but just right at that moment getting wicked out by a spike that hits my stop-loss, and after I leave the market, the price flies in the original direction I expected.

I used to think, “the market maker has set its sights on my few hundred dollars’ worth of position,” but after the teacher’s explanation, I realized this is called the piercing pattern on the chart.

Because the vast majority of newbies (including myself) like to set their stop-losses firmly at previous highs, previous lows, or round figures (for example, if setting a stop-loss at 60,950 for a price of 61,000). Liquidity is concentrated in these areas, and when the price pokes slightly, everyone’s stop-losses are triggered collectively, creating the “wicking out.”

• Avoiding pitfalls advice: Do not mechanically set your stop-loss at the tip of the wick. You can leave some buffer based on the market's real volatility, or learn to reference the ATR (Average True Range Indicator) to set your stop-loss, so as not to let the market easily sweep away your opportunities.

4. Judging bulls and bears, the two moving averages commonly used by Domi Club teachers

In the past, I cluttered my chart with dozens of lines, thinking any of them appeared to be support. In the live session, the teacher simplified the indicators and focused on teaching us two lines:

• 55-week moving average (for the big trend): If the weekly line breaks below the 55-week moving average and fails to return after the first rebound, it usually indicates that the big structure has weakened.
• 200-day moving average (for medium to long-term boundary): The market is strong only when the price remains above the 200-day moving average; if it breaks below and faces multiple barriers upon rebounding, it must be approached with caution.

Regardless of how much the price has risen in the short term, the key is whether it can effectively hold above these two lifelines.

5. Specific operational thoughts for BTC / ETH

Regarding the current market conditions, the teacher also provided very clear oscillation ranges and defensive strategies in the live session:

• BTC: Focus primarily on the oscillation structure of 59,000—65,000. The teacher emphasized not to chase the price in the middle of this range. If it falls to 61,000—61,500, watch for support; if it breaks through 61,000, don’t rush to short; wait for confirmation of resistance before deciding.
• ETH: Look above for resistance near 1,800 and below for support around 1,710—1,720 and 1,680.

What impressed me the most was that the teacher did not give specific price points for trading, but taught us: Don’t guess the market’s ups and downs in advance; wait for the market to give signals at key positions.

6. One quote that shocked me the most from this live session

As the live session was about to end, the teacher said a statement that I directly copied onto the first page of my notebook:

Mindset > Position management > Technical analysis > Entry points

I used to spend 90% of my time learning indicators and finding magical price points, but I didn’t understand position management at all.

Even when I saw the right direction, due to heavy leverage and full margin, even a slight fluctuation would get me liquidated;

In contrast, those with reasonable positions and clear defenses still have ample room to adjust and stop losses, even if they are wrong once.

Before trading, think clearly: “What is the maximum I can lose on this trade? Where is my stop-loss?” instead of only thinking about “How much can I make if this doubles?”

✍️ In conclusion

In the past, I traded chaotically, always being driven by emotions to buy high and sell low. After listening to 【Domi Club】's live session, my biggest gain was not just learning a few key levels, but also learning to maintain respect for the market and establish my own risk control system.

In the teacher’s words: The market may misjudge at any time, but the risk absolutely cannot spiral out of control.

If you, like me, often feel lost in trading and don’t know how to read the market, I strongly recommend listening to Domi Club's weekly live sessions; the logic is very clear and is truly hands-on, practical content.

📺 My source for this class (sharing with everyone):

Community: 【Domi Club】
Live session time: Wednesdays at 8:00 PM
Live session link: https://meeting.tencent.com/dm/WDoUjmnHwwGt
Join the community: https://sfw.vc/+1X4jENbyW0QqXKMOGSaVeQ

(The above is just my personal class notes and insights, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; everyone must think independently and manage risks well!)

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