Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market finally broke the continuous days of sideways movement, welcoming a small volume breakthrough in the evening.

This round of increase is mainly driven by the strengthening of the ETH exchange rate, with ETH forming a large bullish candle on a 2-hour chart, boosting market risk appetite and BTC also strengthening simultaneously. Compared to the repeated tug-of-war of the previous days, the bulls have finally gained some initiative this time, and the daily structure is gradually tilting towards the bulls.

However, the current market still cannot be overly optimistic.

Although the short-term technical indicators have improved, overall liquidity remains weak, and there are still many uncertainties in the macro environment. Geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and subsequent monetary policy expectations may still affect market sentiment at any time.

At the same time, ETF funds continue to flow in, providing some bottom support for BTC, but the incremental funds are still insufficient to push the price to break through the key resistance area at once.

The market has now reached an important stage for directional choice:

• BTC needs to effectively stabilize above 65150 to further weaken the previous bearish structure;

• ETH needs to break through the important resistance around 2100 USD to open up more upward space.

Therefore, whether the market can continue to rise next will depend not only on technical breakthroughs but also require a stable macro environment and ongoing funds inflow to work together.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Short-term bullish, long-term still needs confirmation.

The short-term trend of BTC has shown significant improvement.

From a technical perspective:

• The 4-hour level has broken through the previous downtrend line, strengthening the short-term rebound structure;

• The double bottom structure formed by 62220 on August 1 and 62210 on August 3 was followed by a volume breakthrough to 64000, confirming that short-term bulls have begun to take the initiative;

• The current price is consolidating around the 64000-64500 area, and the market is accumulating momentum for the next breakthrough.

However, from a broader cycle perspective:

• The daily price is still running below the major moving averages, and the long-term trend has not fully turned strong;

• The daily RSI is about 44, still below the dividing line of 50, indicating that while bullish momentum has resumed, its strength remains limited.

Thus, it is currently more suitable to define this round of market movement as:

Short-term rebound has been confirmed, but long-term reversal still needs further verification.

What is truly worth paying attention to is the 65200-65500 resistance area.

If it can break through with volume and stabilize, the market is expected to further challenge 66200; if the breakthrough fails, we still need to be cautious about returning to test the support near 64000.

Key Levels

Support:
64000-63600

62500-63000

Resistance:
65200-65500-66200

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Short-term strengthening, long-term still favors consolidation.

ETH became the leading asset in this round of increases yesterday.

The 2-hour bullish candle quickly strengthened the price, significantly improving short-term sentiment; however, overall, ETH still belongs to repair-based increases and has not formed a completely independent strong market.

From a technical perspective:

• EMA50 and EMA200 have re-stabilized, indicating that the moving average structure is beginning to turn bullish;

• MACD has formed a golden cross, and short-term momentum continues to be released;

• 1-hour RSI is about 74, and the short-term has entered a relatively strong area;

• 4-hour MACD continues to expand, with bullish advantages still present.

However, there are also some signals that need attention:

• The daily price is still below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the long-term bearish structure has not been thoroughly reversed;

• The 24-hour trading volume has not significantly increased, mostly following BTC's lead;

• The stochastic RSI still shows signal divergence, indicating that the foundation for the rebound still needs further consolidation.

From a formation perspective, the 4-hour level still maintains a descending wedge consolidation. If it can break through the trend line with volume, the market has the opportunity to further challenge the 2000 USD psychological level.

Additionally, the on-chain fundamentals still deserve continued attention:

• L2 networks continue to divert application layer profits, and the ability to capture ETH's value still needs improvement;

• The expansion of RWA and stablecoin ecosystems has not yet fully reflected in the price of ETH;

• If the EIP-8361 proposal is pushed forward later, it may affect the long-term staking structure and bring new changes to the long-term supply and demand of ETH.

Key Levels

Support:1860-1870-1850

Resistance:1930-1950-1962-1986

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