1. Review of Yesterday: Fluctuating Upwards, Waiting for Direction Choice
Yesterday, ETH exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the price center steadily rising. After the previous tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market is waiting for new directional guidance—whether today's upward momentum can continue and return to a bullish pattern will be the focus of short-term attention.
2. News: Easing Geopolitical Tensions Boost Risk Appetite
Two major factors propelled ETH's upward movement yesterday:
Signs of Easing Geopolitical Situation
Tehran and Oman have reached an agreement on proposed shipping routes for the Strait of Hormuz, which is seen as a potential step towards restoring navigation in this key global energy transportation corridor. Meanwhile, Trump stated that he is engaged in dialogue with Iran, noting that U.S.-Iran negotiations are "progressing well," and emphasized that he is more inclined to reach an agreement with Iran, provided that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons.
Gulf state officials assess that the likelihood of reaching an agreement between the U.S. and Iran before Friday is about 50%. The cooling of geopolitical risks significantly boosts the risk appetite for cryptocurrency risk assets represented by ETH.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations Enter Key Game Period
According to data from the "Federal Reserve Watch" tool, current market divergences regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are evident: the probability of maintaining interest rates is 45.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 54.4%.
It is worth noting that the U.S. non-farm employment data to be released this Friday will become an important variable in determining the direction of interest rate hike probabilities—strong data will strengthen rate hike expectations, while weaker data may undermine them. Changes in interest rate expectations directly influence the dollar's trends and the flow of funds into risk assets.
3. Technical Analysis: Returning to High-Range Fluctuation, Key Levels Clear at a Glance
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart has returned to a high-range fluctuation zone, with intense competition between bulls and bears occurring here.
Key resistance above
Around 1830: This is the key resistance area for today's further upward attack; whether it breaks or not will directly determine the continuation of the upward trend.
Key level for separating bulls and bears below
1872: This is the most important dividing line for bulls and bears currently. As long as the price remains above this level, there is still room for upward development; once a 4-hour close falls below 1872, it means that the trend has turned weak again.
4. Operational Reference: Go with the Trend, Strictly Follow Discipline
Below are operational strategy references based on the current technical structure (not investment advice; please judge in conjunction with your own risk tolerance):
Scenario 1: Stabilize and Go Long
Trigger Condition: Hourly or 4-hour level stabilizes in the 1930 area
Reference Direction: Bullish
Reference Stop Loss: Around 1907
Upper Target: Focus on the 1990 and 2012 levels
Scenario 2: Break the Dividing Line Turns Weak
Trigger Condition: 4-hour close falls below 1872
Reference Direction: Bearish
Reference Stop Loss: Around 1900
Lower Target: Focus on the 1834 and 1806 levels
Scenario 3: Short-term Speculation (suitable for experienced short-term traders)
Trigger Condition: 15-minute level recovers to 1906
Reference Direction: Slightly bullish for short-term
Reference Stop Loss: Around 1886
Note: Short-term trading can be highly volatile; be sure to strictly control position sizes and stop losses
To know more details and specific operations, see you in the live room tonight, where we will analyze the market live and look at the K-line and discuss the logic in real-time.
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The above analysis is for market discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; participants should control risks and make rational decisions.
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