After finishing the article yesterday, I recalled that in the article from the day before, Ban Bin mentioned that AI is an investment opportunity that cannot be missed, and I thought about a recent piece of so-called insider news I came across.

The insider news reflects:

A considerable number of A-share fund managers are privately anxious lately because the stocks related to AI that their funds have heavily invested in have been severely trapped following the drastic drop of the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index. They are anxiously gathering information everywhere, trying to predict whether these trapped assets have any chance of recovering their value in the future.

It is hard to verify how many funds are mentioned in this insider news, but I believe that there is indeed a group of funds that have been severely trapped, and at high positions-----------because I recently received messages from some financial institutions informing me that XXX has newly established a batch of high-tech funds, which are very hot and cannot be missed.

I have previously shared how to judge whether my heavy positions are reliable through reverse thinking, one hallmark being: when my heavy positions decline and I feel completely lost, it proves that my heavy positions are unreliable.

According to this standard, for most of these "cash-rich retail investors" (funds), the heavily positioned assets are indeed unreliable.

I guess the reason they heavily invested in these stocks in the first place was likely to prove that they would not miss the big trend of AI.

This makes me think of the relationship between trends and investment.

Whenever a new technology is born, we hear a lot of discussions about trends in various media. First, there is a discussion of how these technologies impact and change our lives, and then the focus and key points will be on the wealth opportunities they will bring us.

From the earliest internet, mobile internet, to the blockchain we have experienced, and now to artificial intelligence, future quantum computing, space economy, etc., this has been the case without exception.

A new trend emerges, which will completely change our lives, thoroughly reshape and create new business models, and will certainly bring unprecedented investment opportunities.

Focusing on a new trend means hoping to find new business opportunities in an entirely new field, like finding suitable investment enterprises, companies, and teams.

But the question is how to judge whether the companies, firms, and teams you are focusing on are winners in these reshaped and newly created business models?

History has repeatedly proven that 99% of the enterprises, companies, and teams that emerge in this process will ultimately become casualties, with only that 1% or even less being the final winners.

Yet, will the vast majority of investors rushing in to seek opportunities carefully discern which are the 99% and which are the 1%?

I estimate not.

If they won't, then what is the motive for rushing in?

After thinking it over, I can only conclude that the motive is not investment, but gambling. They do not care, do not analyze, nor do they reflect on whether the assets they bought are among the final 1% winners, but rather gamble on their ability to accurately guess how much this trend can rise after they purchase, and how they can gracefully and calmly exit, thereby accurately capturing the "opportunity" brought by this round of "trend".

However, in reality, the vast majority of ordinary people do not have the talent to accurately predict the rise and fall of trends.

I am increasingly able to understand why Duan Yongping said he invests very little in the primary market or earlier markets; he prefers to find targets in the secondary market---------he hopes to invest genuinely with a more reliable and meticulous method, rather than gamble.

I do not mean to say that as investors we should not pay attention to trends.

On the contrary, we should pay attention----------because a new trend can indeed bring unprecedented opportunities, and in the face of these unprecedented opportunities, everyone is equal; no one has prior advantages. If someone seizes the opportunity among these, it is very likely they will achieve a leapfrog advantage.

This is a fact and also the most enchanting aspect for many investors, especially new investors.

But at the same time, there is also a significant pitfall: once one rushes in indiscriminately without discernment, ignoring the fundamentals, not analyzing the business models, and buying indiscriminately regardless of price, they may very well end up thoroughly trapped, with no way out.

This is also a pit many investors, especially new investors, easily overlook and fall into.

Therefore, as we focus on new trends and seek new opportunities within them, we should not only feel anxious about "fear of missing out" and yearn for "getting rich overnight," but also constantly remind ourselves whether we are really gambling or genuinely looking for reliable business models and reasonably priced new opportunities in the new trends.

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