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BTC monthly line is about to close, options delivery locks in a $64,000 battleground

Bitcoin rebounded on Thursday along with risk assets, briefly breaking through $65,000, rising 10.52% this month. Multiple Wall Street traders pointed out that BTC has shown extremely strong capital support near $63,000, while the $67,000 level above is a heavy zone for short-term profit-taking pressures.

Although tech stocks in the US stock market rebounded significantly, they did not drive the crypto market to strengthen simultaneously, as the current crypto market lacks new US dollar liquidity, and capital inflows remain weak. However, there are positive signals in ETF fund flows: the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $233.1 million on Thursday, bringing the ETF back to a net inflow of $203.8 million this week, with a cumulative net inflow of about $438 million in July, expected to end the previous two months of large-scale outflows.

Today marks the closing day of the July monthly line, and the BTC options market is focused on $64,000. According to Greeks.live data, there are a total of 149,000 BTC options expiring today, with the maximum pain point being $64,000, with a nominal value of $9.6 billion. The end-of-month delivery combined with the monthly line closing has caused BTC's short-term price to be "pinned" near $64,000, and market sentiment is inclined to wait and see, lacking the desire for heavy bets in one direction. BTC's weekly volatility is at its lowest level in two years, with the weekly 200MA, 200EMA, and bull market support zone approaching. Daan Crypto Trades points out that a decisive weekly movement of about 10% may occur in the future.

It is noteworthy that Bitcoin has closed with a bearish candle in August during the past three bear market cycles, with an average decline of 14.8%. Trader CGT Trader points out that based on historical statistical patterns and the current bearish technical shape, the probability of a decline in August is quite high.

Today's Highlights:

• YGG Play platform and games such as LOL Land and Waifu Sweeper will stop operations on July 31

• SBI Crypto will close its Bitcoin mining pool service on July 31

• Ethereum L2 network Zero Network will close on July 31, users need to cross-chain transfer NFTs, ETH, and other assets out

• FTX announced that starting July 31, it will distribute the fifth allocation of approximately $900 million, and preferred shareholders will also receive the second payment

• Cardano ecological lending platform Levvy will stop operations on July 31

• Wormhole: Moonbeam network will close on July 31, users should pay attention to the cross-chain transfer of assets

• Chrome updates its application store policy on August 1: categorizing prediction markets as regulated goods and strictly controlling expansion data collection

• Solana-based NFT platform Exchange Art will stop operations on August 1

• Sei ecological DeFi lending platform Oxium announced it will stop operations and plan to close its front end on August 1

• Minnesota will allow banks and credit cooperatives to provide crypto custody services starting August 1

• SUI has dropped 82.8% from its historical high and will unlock 13.72 million tokens on August 1, valued at $9.76 million

• EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock about 36.82 million tokens, valued at approximately $7.6 million

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: CFX, BTC, MMT, XRP, ETH

• Spot Bitcoin ETF: +$233 million

• Spot Ethereum ETF: +$13.2871 million

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies: HASH up 22.5%, UB up 14.7%, UNI up 9.6%, M up 8%, PUMP up 5.3%.

Three major US stock index futures continue to rebound, pre-market Amazon surges, Apple drops

Three major US stock index futures continue to show strong rebounding sentiment, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.13%, Dow futures up 0.54%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.45%.

BIT night trading data shows that in the US night trading, semiconductor, storage board, and optical communication sectors continue to rebound, with Micron Technology up 2.53%, SanDisk up 3.37%, SK Hynix up 6.27%, Storage ETF DRAM up 3.55%, semiconductor ETF up 2.91%. Last night, BE, Nebius surged over 20%, up 7.59% and 7.56% respectively.

• Amazon surged over 12% in pre-market after announcing Q2 results: AWS revenue grew 37% year-on-year, reaching the fastest growth since 2021, and full-year capital expenditure guidance raised to $220 billion;

• Apple dropped about 8% in pre-market: despite surpassing expectations in revenue and profit, and achieving historical highs in iPhone revenue, it was dragged down by ongoing supply chain constraints, with Q4 revenue guidance only at 9% to 11%, significantly below market expectations of 12.1%. If the price drop continues, Apple may relinquish its title of "global stock king" back to Nvidia;

• Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase fell 4.5% in pre-market: it also delivered lower-than-expected results, with total revenue of $1.22 billion in Q2, down 14% quarter-over-quarter.

• Strategy was slightly pressured in pre-market, down 2.38%, with the company recognizing about $8.2 billion in Bitcoin-related losses in Q2, and cash reserves increased to approximately $3.75 billion, covering over 2.1 years of dividend and interest expenses. Brian Dobson of Clear Street believes that the most important thing now is to prove the company has the liquidity to navigate through the crypto bear market.

Microsoft holds up half the sky, crypto miners revive with AI concepts

Chips, storage, optical communication, and new cloud services are all experiencing an explosion. Micron rose 18.32%, SanDisk rose 25.99%, AMD rose 13%, TSMC ADR rose 7.64%, Lumentum rose over 15%, and Nebius rose 27.13%. Institutions like Wedbush and D.A. Davidson believe that Microsoft has proven that AI investments can still generate revenue and cash flow, correcting the previous panic selling in the chip chain.

However, the market internally is not healthy; while the S&P 500 rises, the equal-weighted S&P 500 weakens, indicating that gains are still concentrated in large tech and AI chains. Bloomberg strategist Michael Ball believes that this round of rebounds in tech stocks and momentum stocks resembles position squeezing rather than a return of sustained risk appetite.

Additionally, “AI stock god” Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund faced forced liquidation, marking a significant event in the current de-leveraging of AI trading. The fund had once gained astonishing returns by betting on AI infrastructure, with assets under management reaching hundreds of billions, but was forced to sell about $16 billion in publicly traded stock assets during the recent AI chain crash, ultimately acquired quickly by Citadel, leading the market to see the "forced liquidation pressure ending" as a short-term buy signal.

Crypto-concept stocks performed strongly, according to BIT US stocks data, with only Robinhood down 3.61% last night, while Strategy rose 4.73%, Circle rose 4.69%, and Coinbase rose 2.18%.

Mining companies became the brightest segment, with IREN rising over 30%, Cipher Digital rising over 28%, Hut 8 rising nearly 23%, Riot Platforms rising over 21%, TeraWulf rising over 18%, Bitdeer rising 24.72%, CleanSpark rising 21.07%, and HIVE Digital rising 18.34%. Morgan Stanley recently began covering several Bitcoin miners transforming into AI infrastructure suppliers and pointed out that mining companies with large grid connections and power assets will be well-positioned amidst the surge in demand for AI data centers.

Asian markets fully recover, AI trading heat sweeps Japan and South Korea again

The South Korean market staged an epic rebound, with the KOSPI index closing up 17.91% on July 31, marking the largest single-day closing increase in history; however, it still accumulated a drop of 22.4% this month, ranking as the third largest monthly decline in history, and has retreated about 30% from the June peak.

The South Korean government plans to inject 200 trillion won, about $13.9 billion, into the Korea Investment Corporation for strategic investments in AI, data centers, and infrastructure, and for the first time, expand the sovereign wealth fund's authority to allocate domestic assets. Meanwhile, foreign investors net bought 72 trillion won of KOSPI stocks on Friday, setting a record high, becoming a key funding force driving the index’s soaring.

SK Hynix surged 30% to hit the upper limit, while Samsung Electronics rose nearly 27%, both breaking historical single-day gain records. A leveraged ETF product from Southern Eastern, which doubles down on SK Hynix, also skyrocketed over 70%, after a significant drop of more than 80% from its peak in June, shrinking by nearly 100 billion Hong Kong dollars. Southern Eastern subsequently urgently clarified, stating that the product expects to maintain double leverage under current market conditions and will not actively reduce the multiple, to quell market concerns about the "extended recovery period for high-position trapped investors."

The Japanese stock market is also strong, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up 4.03%, briefly breaking through the 65,000-point mark during the day, but still down 8% this month. SoftBank Group surged about 15% and hit the upper limit, while storage giant Kioxia surged 17.72%, leading semiconductor heavies like Advantest and Tokyo Electron.

The Bank of Japan voted 8 to 1 to maintain the policy rate at 1%, in line with market expectations, but member Takata Sho supported a 25 basis point rate hike. The Bank of Japan stated it will continue to increase rates based on economic, price, and financial conditions; Governor Ueda Kazuo stated that it is not necessary to wait until inflation stabilizes completely at 2% before acting and expects CPI growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 to be significantly above 2%.

In the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, robotics concept stocks performed actively, with Yushutech's Sci-Tech board IPO approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission, set to start subscription on August 10, driving up related Hong Kong stocks like XianGong Intelligence, ZhaoWei Electromechanical, and Laifu Harmonics; the Hang Seng Tech Index and mainland tech sector also recovered significantly with the positive policy signals released from the Politburo meeting, with market expectations heating up for breakthroughs in leading-edge technologies and confidence restoration in the capital market.

Upcoming points of focus:

• August 1 South Korea July export year-on-year data: Market expects about 59%, previous value 70.9%. South Korean exports are a high-frequency barometer for global semiconductor and AI hardware demand; if the data is stronger than expected, it will strengthen the rebound of SK Hynix, Samsung, and the Asian chip chain; if it shows a significant cooling, the profit-taking following today’s KOSPI surge could accelerate.

• August 1 deadline for Trump's government AI regulatory framework: The draft has been sent to institutions such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. The regulatory framework will affect the pace of AI models, computing power, data centers, and enterprise applications in the US, potentially leading to a revaluation of Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and the AI infrastructure chain.

• August 1 Microsoft Xbox price hike takes effect: Although not a macro big event, it will be used by the market to observe the price transmission ability of consumer electronics and gaming hardware, and will also influence marginal expectations for Microsoft's personal computing business.

• August 2 OPEC+ meeting: The market expects to discuss increasing production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in September. If production increase is realized and risks in the Middle East do not escalate further, oil price pressures are likely to ease, benefiting inflation expectations and risk assets; if conflicts in the Middle East continue to spill over, rising oil prices will reignite concerns over long-end inflation, suppressing US stock valuations and BTC risk appetite.

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