1. Today's Core News Summary
1. Macroeconomic: The Federal Reserve stays still but hawkish divisions intensify, limiting rebound space
The Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%–3.75%, with a voting result of 9:3. Three regional Federal Reserve presidents supported a rate hike, with internal divisions exceeding market expectations. US inflation data remained high at 4.1%, and market pricing for a rate hike in September has further heated up, with interest rate futures indicating the probability of a September hike exceeding 80%. After the decision was announced, Bitcoin briefly surged before retreating, with overall rebound strength being weak and lacking sustained upward momentum.

2. Funds and Clearing: Long positions continue to deleverage, $700 million in positions cleared
Approximately $709 million in leveraged positions across the entire market were forcibly liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for over 62%. During the rebound process, long positions showed a lack of willingness to chase higher, and there is a notable trend of reducing positions at highs. Bitcoin's spot trading volume remains sluggish, and July is expected to record the lowest average daily spot trading volume since November 2023. Weak internal market demand is currently the biggest constraint.

3. Sentiment and Sectors: Panic sentiment continues, funds rotate towards small-cap speculative targets
The crypto fear and greed index reported 28, still in the "fear" range, continuing to decline by 1 point compared to yesterday, indicating sustained weakness in market risk appetite. Sector differentiation is significant, with mainstream large-cap coins overall under pressure, and the DeFi sector's market cap shrinking by 11.5% in a single day; meanwhile, small-cap coins like COTI and RSS3 saw single-day gains exceeding 50%, showing a short-term rotational characteristic of "abandoning large caps and trading small caps," but overall sustainability is generally poor.

4. Industry Dynamics: Traditional finance accelerates on-chain layout, privacy track receives attention
Asset management giant BNY Mellon officially launched on-chain transfer agency services, putting the trading records of its $8.6 trillion fund business on-chain; the Ethereum Foundation added a privacy technology expert to the board to strengthen the privacy strategy at the protocol level; Binance.US announced plans to apply for CFTC licensing, formally entering the prediction market track, with industry compliance and institutionalization processes continuing to advance.


Strategy and Entry Point Reference

1. BTC
Market Characterization: The 4-hour level maintains a narrow range of $63,500–$64,500, failing to break through the upper pressure after the Federal Reserve's decision. Short-term bullish and bearish forces are balanced, and with ongoing shrinking volume, there is currently no clear trend, mainly adopting a range-bound high-sell low-buy approach within the day.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $63,600 – $63,700 (short-term support during the day, recent bottom of oscillation)
◦ Strong Support: $62,800 – $63,000 (dividing line between bulls and bears; falling below indicates a return to a weak trend)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $64,300 – $64,500 (resistance level during rebounds, 7-day moving average pressure)
◦ Strong Resistance: $65,000 – $65,200 (previous oscillation platform; establishing above this is necessary to open up upside space)

• Reference Approach:
◦ Stabilization after a pullback to $63,000–$63,500 can be considered for light long positions, with a stop loss placed below $62,900

◦ Short positions can be considered when rebounding to the $64,500–$65,000 range under pressure, with a stop loss placed above $65,100

◦ Avoid chasing highs and lows in the context of weak volume, focus on quick entries and exits within the range, and follow trends after breaking key levels.

2. ETH

Market Characterization: The trend shifted from strong to weak, breaking below the $1,900 integer level, and the short-term rebound structure is compromised; ETF capital inflow momentum is declining, with obvious pressure from the moving averages above, treating the day with a weak oscillation mindset, focusing on the effectiveness of support near $1,880.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $1,880 – $1,885 (short-term support during the day)
◦ Strong Support: $1,860 – $1,865 (previous oscillation platform, dividing line between bulls and bears)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $1,910 – $1,915 (near the integer level, former support turns into resistance)
◦ Strong Resistance: $1,930 – $1,935 (pressure from the 100-day moving average)

• Reference Approach:
◦ Stabilization after a pullback to the $1,860–$1,875 range can be lightly bought for rebounds, with a stop loss placed below $1,855

◦ Short positions can be considered when rebounding to the $1,930–$1,945 range under pressure, with a stop loss placed above $1,950

◦ If it effectively breaks below $1,860, bottom-fishing is not recommended, with a focus on looking down to near $1,830.

3. SOL

Market Characterization: Maintaining a weak oscillation range of $72–$76, RSI falling to around 48, buying momentum continuously diminishing, with rebound strength weaker than the overall market; on-chain activity is flat, lacking independent catalysts, and the market is highly dependent on Bitcoin's trends, with operations primarily focused on a defensive mindset.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $73.0 – $73.2 (short-term support during the day)
◦ Strong Support: $72.0 – $72.2 (previous rebound starting point; breaking below this indicates a return to the downward channel)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $74.5 – $74.8 (resistance level during rebounds)
◦ Strong Resistance: $75.5 – $76.0 (previous area of dense transactions)

• Reference Approach:

◦ Stabilization after a pullback to the $72.8–$73.2 range can be lightly bought, with a stop loss placed below $72.0

◦ Short positions can be considered when rebounding to the $74.5–$75.0 range under pressure, with a stop loss placed above $75.8

◦ Breaking below $72 is advised to be avoided, with no rush to bottom-fish on the left side.
Additional Operation Reminder

1. The market direction after the Federal Reserve's decision remains unclear, and under shrinking volume, false breakout trends are likely to occur. It is recommended to operate with light positions and strict stop losses to avoid heavily betting on the direction.
2. Core variables to observe during the day: performance of US tech stocks, trends of the dollar index and US treasury yields, and Bitcoin spot ETF capital flows.

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