Thank you, Teacher Jiang. I have been explaining the reasons for my short position on oil since the beginning, and I would like to discuss it with Teacher Jiang:

1. Iran is firmly holding onto Hormuz, which is highly probable. This war indeed highlights the position of Hormuz in global oil transportation, but because of this, Iran's blockade affects almost global interests, including China. Therefore, my judgment is that oil prices will not remain high, especially that WTI will not hover above 100 dollars for a long time.

This would lead to rising global inflation, not just in the United States, but globally. Currently, Europe has shifted from preparing to cut interest rates to considering significant reasons for raising them, which is largely due to rising inflation. In the short term, the world can tolerate Iran; after all, a theocratic state is hard to "communicate" with, but looking at it over a longer period, this is not realistic.

2. The U.S. feels like it is not exerting its full strength against Iran. Of course, attacking a theocratic state like Iran hastily may not be beneficial for the U.S., but from the current perspective, the talks between Iran and the U.S. began with the U.S. blockade of the Iranian Gulf, which essentially locked Iran's wallet. Of course, Iran can exchange injuries, but I feel that Iran has not reached that point yet.

The latest proposal suggests that a third country has proposed incorporating Iran into an organization that guarantees the security of Hormuz, allowing it to gain a share of Hormuz's benefits, though Trump did not agree to this proposal. Moreover, a prolonged conflict is not advantageous for the Republican Party, especially with the midterm elections approaching.

3. Teacher Jiang is right in saying that "global strategic reserves of oil are running low," and I completely agree. It is precisely because global strategic oil reserves are limited that I think oil prices will not remain elevated for a long time. High oil prices do not only affect one country; major global economies must bear the costs of inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, making it difficult to allow this state of affairs to persist in the long term.

Australia is a very typical example. The Reserve Bank of Australia previously expected that with Brent holding around $100, inflation could rise to 4.8%. If Brent rises to $145, economic growth and employment would face more serious impacts. Would Australia just sit back and do nothing? I don't believe that.

PS: China actually has quite a lot of strategic reserves.

Of course, these are just my own views. I have written them all out to confirm with all the teachers, but from what I see, I feel that even if oil prices rise to $140, I can still short it. However, I do not know if oil prices will reach $140, nor do I know when Trump will make a move, so I aim to short at highs while controlling my position and risk. That is my trading logic.

It may not be correct, but isn't there a certain degree of obsession in trading? Shorting oil may just be my obsession 😂

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