SpaceX $SPCX short-term should not have formed a clear bottom yet, even though it has dropped from $225 to $115, the current valuation is still about:

83 times static price-to-sales ratio;

235 times adjusted EBITDA for 2025.

In the next two weeks, the probability of continuing to decline is still higher than a direct reversal.

The earnings report release and a large unlocking period are coming soon, I calculated:

On August 6, the first batch of up to 911.5 million shares will be eligible for trading, which is equivalent to 1.42 times the current free float.

Even if only 10% of the unlocked shares choose to sell, that’s 91 million shares, which is about 14% of the current float.

There may be a continuous emergence of a large number of trapped positions and reduction positions around this time, which could relatively easily form a temporary bottom.

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