Will the CLARITY bill pass? When will it pass?

Today, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated:

Thank you to my Democratic colleagues for their significant contributions to the new version of the CLARITY bill draft, and I promise to continue pushing for an agreement in the coming days so that this bill can ultimately become law.

It is clear that the clarity bill is entering the final sprint stage,

but this does not mean the two parties have reached an agreement, nor does it mean that the Senate's 60 votes are locked in.

Will the clarity bill pass? It definitely will, it’s just a matter of time. My probability assessment is that the CLARITY bill will officially become law before the end of this Congress: about 45%.

Because the summer recess begins on August 7, after which it’s the sprint for the midterm elections. Even if there is a session in the fall, the willingness of both parties to compromise on large financial legislation usually decreases before the election.

To break it down further:

1️⃣ Passing in the Senate before the recess on August 7: about 35%—40%;

2️⃣ Final signing into law by the end of 2026: about 45%;

3️⃣ If the Senate vote is not completed before August 7, the probability may quickly drop to around 20% for the year.

Currently, there is this expectation in place, which is actually okay,

everyone is watching this expectation, it might even rise a bit. On the contrary, if the expectation really comes to fruition, then it’s hard to say how the market will react.

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