The recent withdrawal of leverage in South Korea has occurred at a rather turbulent time: data from the Korea Financial Investment Association shows that by the end of June 2026, the margin balance in the Korean stock market surged to approximately 38.6 trillion won at a peak, but by July 16, it had fallen back to 33.4 trillion won, a decrease of about 13% in just half a month. This indicates that the originally optimistic retail investors are collectively shrinking their leverage positions. Meanwhile, since early May, the U.S. Central Command has assisted about 900 commercial ships in passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation, delivering approximately 450 million barrels of crude oil; after two months of tension in this high-risk shipping route, on July 20 at 21:00 Eastern Time, the U.S. launched a new round of strikes against Iran, announcing the end of operations on July 21. Concurrently, the U.S. State Department issued a global security warning, bringing energy chokepoints and geopolitical conflicts back to the forefront of pricing. On another front, traditional markets are aligning closer to the "24-hour trading" of the crypto world: the London Stock Exchange has announced plans to establish night trading venues in the first half of 2027, extending trading hours from 17:00 London time to the following day at 7:50, initially offering ETF products that track the UK and U.S. stock markets, while the crypto market, which has been operating continuously, has long been accustomed to this rhythm. At the same time, Robinhood has started opening its platform to AI agents, allowing users to set up agency accounts and automate research, trading, and portfolio management for U.S. stocks and certain crypto assets, indicating a shift towards the automation and programmability of retail capital's cross-asset migration. On the surface, this is just a reduction in leverage by South Korean retail investors, renewed ripples in the Gulf region, an extension of trading hours at the London Stock Exchange, and the addition of an AI "trader" for U.S. retail investors. However, quietly being rewritten behind the scenes are two core macro variables: first, the contraction and redistribution of global risk appetite under geopolitical and energy shocks; second, the upgrade of trading infrastructure in terms of time dimension and decision-making entities. These two factors combined are changing when BTC, ETH, and on-chain capital take on risks or magnify volatility within a 24-hour period, as well as their roles in the spectrum of global risk assets.
Korean Stock Market Leverage Withdrawal: Shift in Retail Investor Risk Appetite
Margin trading essentially involves retail investors borrowing money from brokerages to leverage their stock purchases, and the height of the balance largely reflects the local sentiment of "daring to go all in." The Korea Financial Investment Association reports that by the end of June 2026, the margin balance peaked at about 38.6 trillion won, but by July 16, it fell to 33.4 trillion won, a decline of about 13%. In the absence of any systematic collapse in fundamentals, such a degree of reduction appears more like a collective "hitting the brakes": retail investors' willingness to bear future volatility is cooling, leading them to reduce leverage first and retract the risk positions they previously expanded.
The problem is that risk appetite does not simply disappear; it is either suppressed in cash waiting for clearer directional signals or reallocated to more "pure volatility" during times of rising external uncertainty. South Korean retail investors have played a role in amplifying markets through BTC, ETH, and various altcoins during multiple cycles from 2017 to 2021. Now, the decline in margin balance in the stock market likely indicates that part of the investors are choosing to wait and see regarding stock market volatility, while another part shifts their risk budgets from a daytime stock market characterized by "gains and losses" to the crypto market, which operates on a 24-hour price track. Moving forward, if trading and leverage activities in BTC and ETH on local Korean exchanges see significant volumes while the stock market margin balance continues to decline, it would mean that this round of "de-leveraging in the Korean stock market" is not merely a retreat from risk but involves a redistribution of risk between assets from daytime stocks to all-weather crypto trading.
U.S.-Iran Friction and Oil Shipping Risks Suppressing Risk Assets
Since early May 2026, the U.S. Central Command has escorted about 900 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, carrying approximately 450 million barrels of crude oil. When this throat, which accounts for about 20% of global oil transport, is perceived by the market as a "quasi-war zone", shipping premiums and supply disruption risks are quickly priced in. The new round of strikes against Iran on July 20 at 21:00 Eastern Time, coupled with the announcement of the end of operations on the 21st, although limited in timing, was compounded by the simultaneous global security warning issued by the U.S. State Department, magnifying "localized conflict" into a systemic risk expectation for energy, shipping, and cross-border business activities, consequently pushing up the risk premiums for oil prices and global safe-haven demand.
In this context of geopolitical tension, familiar rifts have emerged in crypto assets: some funds view BTC as a "digital safe-haven asset," choosing to increase their allocations amid concerns about oil price shocks affecting inflation and fiat purchasing power; another portion of capital regards BTC and ETH as typical high-beta risk assets, and in a backdrop of rising oil prices elevating inflation expectations, tightening space for easing, and raising future interest rate pricing, they passively reduce leverage and contract risk exposure. The logic chain is clear—security premiums in the Strait of Hormuz push up energy costs, elevating medium-term inflation expectations, leading the market to reprice the peak of interest rates and the rhythm of rate cuts; the adjustment of discount rates compresses the valuation space for all long-duration, high-growth narrative assets, including crypto assets like BTC and ETH, which are centered on forward usage rates. Whether this round of U.S.-Iran friction can ease, and whether the risk premium for oil prices can revert, will directly determine which side holds more power between the "safe-haven narrative" and the "high-beta selling pressure" in crypto assets.
London Stock Exchange Night Trading Plan: Traditional Markets Aligning with Crypto Time
As oil prices and interest rates are repriced amid U.S.-Iran tensions, on the other end, the London Stock Exchange has essentially put the "time dimension" chips on the table: it plans to launch nighttime trading venues in the first half of 2027, with trading hours extending from 17:00 London time to the following day at 7:50, effectively encompassing the entire risk window from the closing of U.S. stocks to the Asian morning. The initial offerings will consist of ETFs that track the UK and U.S. stock markets; however, this is already enough to draw the trading rhythm of traditional stock markets closer to the crypto market’s "almost always lit" pricing method, responding directly to the encroachment of 24/7 trading of crypto assets on traditional exchanges.
For crypto traders, this is not a simple "local good for London," but rather a structural change: when the London Stock Exchange's night trading overlaps with the closing of U.S. stocks, the early Asian market and the continuous price movements of BTC and ETH, the time gaps for cross-market arbitrage and hedging will be significantly compressed, leading to more stock-chain linked trades runnable "within the same candlestick." The English and American stock ETFs in the night trading phase can be used as proxies for technology growth and beta risk asset exposure, to hedge or amplify directional exposure in BTC and ETH, with structured products tied to both performances likely creating new liquidity peaks in the London time zone. As this nearly 24-hour trading of traditional stock markets continues to extend, the rotation of global risk appetite will translate more continuously between stock index ETFs and mainstream crypto assets, embedding the price volatility of BTC and ETH deeper into the real-time pricing chain of "global risk assets."
Robinhood Opens Up to AI Agents
When Robinhood announced on the X platform that it was opening up to AI agents, allowing users to set up agency accounts and authorize them to conduct research, trading, and manage portfolios, it effectively decentralizes "quantitative positions" directly into retail investors' hands. Unlike traditional platforms that only provide market data and order tools, this time the authorized AI can take over the entire process—from interpreting macro news, selecting targets, to automatically reducing positions or leveraging up during periods of volatility. Retail trading is being pushed one step towards automation and algorithmization, with the proportion of high-frequency commands and strategic orders inevitably increasing, making prices more elastic to short-term signals.
More importantly, Robinhood also provides access to trading U.S. stocks and certain crypto assets, which places AI agents in a natural position within a cross-asset "control room": the same algorithm can increase the weight of tech stocks when the U.S. stock market opens, while transferring risk exposure to BTC and ETH during traditional after-hours. When tensions in the Strait of Hormuz or escalating U.S.-Iran conflicts increase global risk aversion, if such AI chooses to follow similar factors and risk control logic, it is likely to reduce leverage in the same direction—selling high-beta U.S. stocks while simultaneously cutting mainstream crypto positions. The result is that BTC and ETH, which are already highly pro-cyclical, become even more prone to experiencing a moment of "all models hitting the brakes together" under AI-driven homogenized trading. Macro shocks become magnified into synchronized drops across markets and time zones, subtly changing the volatility structure of mainstream crypto assets within the global risk asset chain.
Where Will Crypto Funds Go Next?
Considering the withdrawal of leverage in South Korea, the U.S.-Iran tensions, and the global security warnings together, the current global risk appetite resembles a state of "collective de-leveraging, but far from panic selling." The margin balance in South Korea fell from about 38.6 trillion won at the end of June to 33.4 trillion won on July 16, a decline of approximately 13% within just a few weeks, indicating that local retail investors are proactively reducing risk, but there has not yet been a liquidity vacuum manifested by a sequence of liquidation cascades. The Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. Central Command's escort, has facilitated about 900 vessels and 450 million barrels of oil passage since early May. Coupled with the new round of strikes against Iran on July 20-21 and the simultaneously issued global security warnings, geopolitical uncertainty has begun to rise, but it remains within the framework of rewriting pricing through oil prices and inflation expectations, rather than triggering an extreme mode of global capital "cutting to the bone." In this "cautious rather than panicky" environment, the real re-evaluation lies in trading infrastructure: on one end, the BTC and ETH markets, already operating 24 hours, have been treated by global capital as an instant barometer of cross-market liquidity and risk sentiment; on the other end, the London Stock Exchange's planned night trading sessions from 17:00 to the following day at 7:50, along with Robinhood allowing AI agents to conduct research and trading, are bridging U.S. stocks and crypto assets into an almost sleepless automated trading arena. As traditional institutions and retail simultaneously advance towards "near 24-hour + AI agents," the weight of BTC and ETH as carriers of global macro risks and cross-market hedging tools will only increase, while on-chain dollar assets and contract leverage will more directly reflect these structural changes. Next, attention needs to be focused on three sets of signals: first, whether the South Korean margin balance stabilizes and rebounds, which will determine if East Asian retail investors' re-leveraging spills over back into mainstream coins; second, the evolution of oil prices and related geopolitical news, which will alter BTC and ETH's pricing weight between "risk assets" and "hedging tools" through inflation expectations; third, the progress of the London Stock Exchange's night trading and regulatory feedback on Robinhood's AI agents, which will influence the rolling paths of on-chain dollar funds between U.S. stocks, crypto, and OTC markets, as well as the key variable of how much leverage the futures market dares to open.
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