1:On Thursday, due to market expectations that the U.S. economy will remain resilient and Iran's request for the Houthis to prepare for blocking the Mandeb Strait, the U.S. dollar index oscillated upward and eventually rose by 0.22%, closing at 100.73; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.559%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, closed at 4.158%.
2:Spot gold continued to decline, falling below the $4000 mark, declining nearly $100 during the day, and finally closing down 2.06%, at $3976.42 per ounce; spot silver fell along with gold, ultimately closing down 3.9%, at $55.50 per ounce.
3:Affected by the possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait by the Houthis, international oil prices experienced significant volatility. WTI crude oil briefly surged to $80 per barrel during the session but then quickly gave up all gains and turned lower, eventually closing down 1.05%, at $78.88 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.78%, at $84.02 per barrel.
4:U.S. stocks three major indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.47%, the Dow down 0.2%, and the S&P 500 index down 0.51%.
5:Iran claims that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen due to U.S. pressure; additional reports from foreign media state that Iran has ordered the Houthis: if the U.S. strikes electrical facilities, they will block the Mandeb Strait.
6:FOMC member Logan stated that he currently believes that moderate interest rate hikes will help better balance prospects and risks, and that it is better to moderately tighten policy now than to have to tighten significantly in the future.
News:The Fed collectively adopts a hawkish stance, and the market misinterprets soft data in the month as a signal of easing; AI capital expenditure fosters long-term sticky inflation; the U.S. and Iran are locked in a long-term war of attrition with ongoing inefficiencies in Strait shipping, leading to long-term increases in energy risk premiums; AI production expansion remains, but funds shift from speculative storytelling to verifying returns, with overvalued tech experiencing ongoing valuation corrections;
U.S. election politics are fermenting, and institutional uncertainty is raising risk premiums across the market; the Middle East is accelerating the layout of alternative oil pipelines, with the global energy supply map being reconstructed long-term.
Asset positioning short sentence The dollar interest spread supports high-level oscillations biased towards strength; gold is under pressure in the short term, with medium to long-term geo-stagnation providing a bottom support; cryptocurrency is purely high beta, only showing short-term pulses, with no sustained trends.
Trading discipline Do not bet on easing based on a single month's inflation, do not chase high positions in AI themes, anchor throughout with dual constraints of high interest rates + geopolitical normalization.
Recently, cryptocurrencies have slowed in momentum as we expected. ETH1950 is a strong resistance. The market has continued to decline since then. It is now approaching around 1820 points. BTC has broken below 63000 points. Negative news is rampant. However, as the weekend approaches, the cryptocurrency market remains open. This will attract a wave of risk-averse funds, leading to a pulsing rebound in the market.
Technical analysis:
The chart above shows the 15-minute ETH chart: influenced by negative news, the price surged and then retreated. The current price has retraced to a previous support level around 1820. A certain level of support will be established at the bottom. I believe the price will oscillate back and forth without a significant trend. The overall operation should focus on buying low and selling high.
Specific trading suggestions for ETH: Enter long positions in the range of 1820-1811. The first profit target is 1845. The second profit target is around 1865. The defense level is around 1780. Of course, for safety, it’s not advisable to set stop-loss orders in advance. Nor is it recommended to place orders without watching the market. It’s best to watch the market closely and build positions gradually according to real-time prices.
Trading is not just talk; it is a process of continuous learning and exploration. Achieve results through practice. It's not about trading for the sake of trading, but about going in with a goal and returning with results. This is the truth of our entry into this market!
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