The current market is reassessing whether this round of the Bitcoin bear market is nearing its end. As of February 9, 2026, Bitcoin sharply dropped from $97,000 to $62,900 in less than three weeks. It then briefly rebounded to $82,000 before falling to $58,500 on June 30, setting a new local low. The actual trend generally aligns with the previously expected A-B-C wave structure; however, the Iran conflict has driven up inflation, and the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh has released clear hawkish signals, adding new uncertainties to the original judgment.

From the current trend, after Bitcoin slightly dropped below the February low in late June, there has not been a significant acceleration downward, and it has since regained its footing near $62,900. Changes in technical aspects, holding structures, and macro data are strengthening the judgment that the current low may have formed, but seasonal pressures and interest rate hike expectations may still disrupt the market.

Technical Trends Stabilizing Gradually: C-Wave Low May Have Formed

In late June, Bitcoin only slightly dipped below the February low, meeting the conditions for the formation of a C-wave low. If, after the dip, there is no obvious acceleration downward, and it can continuously hold above the $62,900–$65,000 range, it will further support the judgment that the final C-wave low has formed.

According to technical analysis, ideally, this correction should establish a bottom in the $50,000–$55,000 range; on-chain indicators show that when the price approaches $47,000, the market will enter a deep value zone. Bitcoin has dropped about 50% from its high; while it has not yet reached the 70%-80% retracement level typical of previous bear markets, we believe that the current adjustment is enough to signify a cyclical low.

Unlike previous bear markets, the main resistance currently faced by the market is no longer regulatory risks, but rather insufficient investor enthusiasm and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the average holding cost for Bitcoin ETF investors is about $83,000, with an overall floating loss of about 25%. Most investors seem reluctant to acknowledge losses at current price levels, which also limits the willingness to sell below $58,500.

Inflation Pressure May Have Peaked: Disappearing Rate Hike Expectations Become a Key Variable

In the short term, Bitcoin still faces seasonal and policy risks. August and September typically display weaker seasonal performance. Several voting FOMC members, including Walsh, have recently taken a hawkish stance, which poses potential pressure on Bitcoin's rebound. Therefore, it is advisable to maintain caution and gradually increase Bitcoin positions to about 50% of target allocation size, rather than completing all allocations at once.

However, recently released CPI and PPI data indicate that the sharp rise in inflation, primarily driven by soaring oil prices in the initial stages of the Iran conflict, may have peaked. As oil prices retreat, risk distribution is gradually shifting from upward inflation to declining inflation. The market has priced in an accumulated rate hike of about 65 basis points, equivalent to approximately 2.6 rate hikes of 25 basis points each, but we believe that the Fed's hawkish rhetoric is more about solidifying its policy credibility in the bond market, and the likelihood of further rate hikes is relatively low.

Overall, judging that the bear market may have ended does not equate to judging that a new bull market has begun. Current technical trends and monthly cycle indicators both show that the market bottom is near, but inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have yet to recover, and most traders are still in a floating loss state, with summer trading remaining lackluster. In the backdrop of widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates multiple times, this judgment still belongs to the non-consensus viewpoint.

In the coming weeks to months, as the previously priced-in rate hike expectations gradually fade, we believe this change could become a significant macro catalyst marking the end of the Bitcoin bear market. At the same time, if Bitcoin further dips below $50,000 and enters a deep value zone, it is recommended to establish the remaining half position, thereby reducing the weighted average entry cost of the entire position to about $57,000, and it is expected that over the next 12 months, Bitcoin will likely achieve significant appreciation from this entry level.

The above views are partly from BIT on Target, Contact Us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risk; invest cautiously. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.

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