On July 17, 2026, both AI and cryptocurrency derivatives in China were almost simultaneously put under "stress test": According to a single source, Zhipu's annual recurring revenue was approximately $250 million by the end of March this year, and by July, it soared to $1 billion, illustrating nearly quadruple growth in just four months and sketching a steep growth curve. However, on the same day, Hong Kong stocks saw Zhipu's share price drop over 17% intraday, closing with a decline of nearly 15%. The rapid expansion contrasted sharply with the severe capital market correction, forming two entirely opposite curves. Meanwhile, according to AiCoin data, a newly created wallet on the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid saw approximately 416,700 USDC deposited in a short time, with a significant position opened for 23,200 SPCX long contracts, nominally valued at about $3.28 million, ultimately facing liquidation and incurring a loss of approximately $366,000, revealing the mispricing of leveraged traders. According to HyperliquidNews, the trading volume of the ten HIP-3 markets on Trade.xyz had exceeded $10 billion, and against the backdrop of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference where the Chinese president attended and delivered a keynote speech, the on-chain derivatives narrative and the feverish commercialization of AI companies intersected within the same time window, indicating that growth expectations and risk exposures were synchronously escalating.

Zhipu's soaring ARR and plunging stock prices: two extremes

In the same time window where on-chain derivatives continuously amplified expectations and risks, the fundamental numbers of leading large model companies were also undergoing drastic shifts. It was reported that Zhipu's annual recurring revenue (ARR) was approximately $250 million at the end of March 2026, and by July, it had climbed to $1 billion, representing an increase of nearly fourfold in less than four months. For an AI company still in the expansion phase, this signifies that the volume of recurring revenue from subscriptions and APIs is accelerating, with commercialization transitioning from "viable" to "high-growth normal," and the $1 billion ARR figure itself is sufficient to support a more optimistic growth narrative.

However, upon seeing this set of high-growth numbers, the capital market did not choose to chase after prices but instead provided a starkly contrasting response. On July 17, Zhipu's stock price on the Hong Kong market fell by over 17% at one point, closing nearly 15% down, with another valuation metric indicating a drop of over 12%. Regardless of which set of figures was used, they pointed to the same scenario: while revenue expectations surged, the stock price experienced a double-digit plunge on the same day. Compounding the issue, this was not an isolated company event; other AI-related stocks in Hong Kong, such as Lanqi Technology and Zhao Yi Innovation, also saw declines exceeding 3%. The overall weakness of the sector heightened the downward pressure on Zhipu’s stock price, layering individual valuation adjustments into a collective emotional outpouring of the sector. Under the competitive and public criticism of Zhipu from Kimi K3's launch and Anthropic, investors began to collectively question two core issues: whether the high growth exhibited by Zhipu today is sustainable over the coming years, and whether, after the $1 billion ARR story has been integrated into the valuation curve, the current stock price is truly undervalued or has already discounted all imaginable optimistic expectations.

The pressure on Chinese AI under Kimi and Anthropic's critiques

At the same time that Zhipu wrote "high growth" into the narrative with a $1 billion ARR, the domestic battlefield’s firepower was also intensifying. Kimi K3's launch by Yuezhi Anmian was seen as a speeding up of the existing landscape of Chinese large models: iterating across dimensions like reasoning ability and product forms, making the "baseline" of the Chinese market no longer solely defined by a single player. Almost simultaneously, overseas competitor Anthropic publicly named Zhipu in their materials, criticizing GLM-related content. Although specific wording and technical details have yet to be fully disclosed, being "named" itself is enough to elevate overseas trust issues from technical discussions to implicit pressures at the brand and compliance levels.

When one side involves product upgrades from local competitors, while the other involves public questioning from overseas companies, combined with the backdrop of high policy support for AI, Zhipu was naturally pushed into the position of pressure testing within the narrative of Chinese AI: the iteration of Kimi provided an intuitive technical and product reference frame, while Anthropic's criticism became an emotional amplifier, coinciding with the release of ARR data and significant stock price fluctuations, perceived by many market participants as a catalyst for short-term valuation. For investors, the real need is to distinguish which changes are the endogenous results of Zhipu's own technological and business progress and which are merely amplified reactions to public opinion events and competitor offensives on the valuation curve. In this narrative and competitor siege, what is genuinely being tested is whether the market can maintain a calm discernment of technology and business fundamentals amidst severe emotional swings.

Hyperliquid’s new wallet SPCX long liquidation

At the same time when Zhipu's ARR and stock prices were tugged by market sentiment, on-chain derivatives were also undergoing their own pressure tests. According to AiCoin data, a newly created wallet on Hyperliquid deposited approximately 416,700 USDC as initial capital and then opened 23,200 SPCX long contracts all at once, nominally valued at around $3.28 million. Almost all margin was concentrated on this single long position, with neither diversification to other assets nor any hedging structure, exposing the entire account to high leverage on a single variety, described by on-chain observers as a typical "all-in" strategy.

The subsequent trend did not give this new address any breathing space, as the SPCX long position quickly reached the liquidation line, incurring a loss of approximately $366,000, nearly wiping out the initial margin. This liquidation case laid bare the vulnerabilities of decentralized derivatives under high volatility conditions on-chain: when position concentration is extremely high and leverage multiples are pushed to the limit, any adverse fluctuation can evolve into a single-point failure at the account level. For other participants, this is not an abstract risk warning but a clear lesson recorded on-chain, reminding traders that in the pursuit of amplified profits, they must equally take position management and risk exposure control seriously.

Trade.xyz HIP-3 trading volume surpasses $10 billion warming up

If the wallet liquidated on Hyperliquid is a magnifying glass of high-leverage single-point risk, then the HIP-3 market on Trade.xyz presents another side of reality: According to HyperliquidNews, during a similar time window, the cumulative trading volume of the ten HIP-3 markets on Trade.xyz has crossed the threshold of $10 billion (according to a single source). This indicates that as a type of derivatives market mechanism, HIP-3 is no longer a small circle experiment but has attracted numerous strategies and positions for daily gaming, making the expansion of the derivatives track on-chain clearly visible.

The ongoing increase in trading volume indicates that this product structure and risk pricing method are being accepted and adopted by more participants, with risks no longer concentrated in a few extreme accounts but spread across a broader map of participants. On the other hand, in the absence of specific data on address distribution and leverage levels, this “billion-level” figure is more suitable as a signal of attention and participation rather than as direct evidence for short or trend conclusions. Looking at this data along with the liquidation samples on Hyperliquid, the current state of on-chain derivatives is clear: product popularity and trading activity are continuously heating up, but individual account risk management errors can still rapidly evolve into traceable losses on-chain, pushing the entire ecosystem forward in a tension of being “hot but risky.”

Policy support and subsequent observations amid on-chain volatility

During the same time window where Zhipu's ARR surged from several hundred million to $1 billion and stock prices fluctuated dramatically, the Chinese president attended the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and delivered a keynote speech, explicitly incorporating AI into the national development strategy. This policy support provides backing for market sentiment in the medium to long term, but the public questioning from overseas institutions also reminds investors: whether the narrative can stand firm ultimately depends on the realization of revenue and the fundamentals of technological iteration. The quality of Zhipu's ARR growth—whether it is high stickiness, sustainable enterprise-level contracts, or short-term accumulated orders highly dependent on subsequent disclosures; Kimi has iterated to the K3 version, and the product differences and application landing speed among domestic models will create a long-term "control group" against overseas criticism. Another front is on-chain derivatives: the HIP-3 market on Trade.xyz has reportedly all crossed the $10 billion trading volume threshold, and the SPCX heavily positioned long liquidation sample on Hyperliquid is clearly documented on-chain. Trading activity and individual risk errors are both amplified, calling for more mature position management and participant education. In the absence of more regulatory and risk control quantitative data, the upcoming months will need to concurrently track the commercialization quality of Zhipu and its competitors, the technological path evolution of models like Kimi, and the adjustment rhythm of position structures on platforms like Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz. These variables will jointly determine whether the high-speed, high-volatility fronts of AI and on-chain derivatives head toward healthy expansion or repeated pressure tests.

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