The on-chain signal series has reached its third issue. The first two issues focused on theory and foundational methods, teaching everyone how to identify whales and how to track addresses. Today, we will dive right into practical examples, using the recently hottest HYPE as a complete case study, going through the comprehensive analysis process of "on-chain data + K-line technical analysis." This method is not limited to HYPE; it can be applied to any cryptocurrency and help everyone uncover more opportunities hidden in on-chain smart money.
Our research institute captured this wave of market activity as early as around 35 US dollars, using the analytical logic mentioned in the previous issues. The process can be broken down into four steps, which even beginners can follow. The first step relies on news alerts or large transfers to warn of whale activity, identifying giant fluctuations first;
The second step is to search for the address on the whale page, examining its holding structure, cost line, and liquidation price;
The third step involves reviewing its historical transaction records to determine whether it built positions in batches or made a one-time investment, understanding the operational rhythm;
The fourth step combines news and technical analysis for cross-validation before deciding to enter the market.
Take, for example, the signal before the HYPE surge on July 4; friends who followed the ideas from the previous two issues should have been able to catch it.
At that time, the news alert pushed the whale's unusual activity, corresponding to the address: 0x152e41f0b83e6cad4b5dc730c1d6279b7d67c9dc. Clicking into the detail page reveals that this whale’s opening price and liquidation price are quite apart, indicating strong confidence in the direction.
Reviewing the transaction records shows that it did not build positions in one go but had been continuously adding, buying more as prices rose, indicating a solid bullish stance.
Simply looking at on-chain data already provides a clear bullish signal, but to increase the win rate, we need to layer a further technical verification, which is to achieve resonance between on-chain and off-chain data.
Many people make a mistake when viewing on-chain data: they only look at what whales have bought and blindly follow. However, whales also stop losses and can make mistakes. The best approach is to wait for the market to provide confirmation signals; only when both directions align should one take action, significantly increasing the win rate. We use the EMA indicator for verification.
On July 3, the same day this whale started increasing its position, HYPE’s price had already stabilized above the annual EMA250, while the ema10 and ema40 formed a golden cross. Friends familiar with my EMA strategy know that a pullback stabilizing above the annual line, coupled with the short-term moving average golden cross, is a very stable signal for trend initiation. By July 4, the MACD also synchronously crossed above the zero axis, further confirming the trend.
On one side, there is the giant whale continuously adding real money, and on the other side, the technical analysis showing a bullish resonance; when both signals align, it is the most comfortable entry point. With whale funds providing support, even if corrections occur, the drop won't be deep, and the margin of safety is much higher than merely looking at charts or just on-chain data. We originally relied on this resonance strategy to catch this wave of market activity around 35, holding on to it until now.
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In fact, the reason for releasing three consecutive issues of on-chain practice is also because the platform has just updated its new version of smart money features. The entire set of tools has been refined to be very practical, basically following the analytical logic from our research institute, saving a lot of manual address lookup work. The most intuitive change is the addition of a dedicated smart money entry at the top, allowing users to directly overlay whale holding data on the K-line without needing to switch pages back and forth. 
It also supports custom parameter filtering to filter out noise from small funds and retail investors, keeping only the significant actions of influential whales, resulting in a much cleaner interface.
Similar to major orders, whale buying and selling actions can also set alerts, supporting multiple notification channels, ensuring that alerts about unusual activities can be received promptly without having to watch the screen continuously. 
Previously, everyone had to copy the address from the news alert and then search for details. Now, you can view the whale's entire holdings and historical operations with just one click directly in the alert, allowing for quick navigation to the overview, saving many steps.
There is even a more advanced AI analysis feature. By selecting a segment of the K-line, the AI can automatically help you summarize what actions the whales have taken during that time period, whether they are adding positions or reducing them, without having to flip through transaction records one by one, greatly increasing efficiency.
This feature set was developed by the product team based on the feedback from many traders and long-time users, and it fits the actual trading needs very well. Once everyone gets used to it, you will realize how convenient it is.
Finally, I will organize these on-chain and off-chain resonance strategies into complete steps. Just follow these:
- Use alert news and large transfer warnings to capture whale activity and first identify targets;
- Enter the whale detail page to check holding cost, liquidation line, and overall position structure;
- Review historical transaction records to determine whether it is short-term speculation or long-term positioning, understanding operational style;
- Combine news and market sentiment for preliminary judgment;
- Perform resonance verification on the technical level, which can refer to the EMA strategy: use the 250/10/40 parameters, stabilizing above the annual line + moving average golden cross to confirm the trend; it can also use the MACD strategy: zero-axis crossover or top/bottom divergence to assist in judging the direction.
Taking action when both sides’ signals align is much more stable than looking at one dimension alone. On-chain analysis may appear complex, but once you grasp its logic, it is quite simple. The core is to follow the real money and then use technical analysis to filter out false signals. Following the ideas discussed in these three issues, even those who are new to on-chain analysis can slowly establish their own analytical systems. In the future, we will have opportunities to do practical breakdowns on more cryptocurrencies.
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