1. Macro and Market
The US non-farm payrolls for June fell far short of expectations, prompting the market to lower the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. The US dollar index and US Treasury bond yields both retreated, driving a collective recovery of risk assets. The US stock market, which ended the Independence Day holiday, resumed trading today, and the return of liquidity will amplify market fluctuations. Bitcoin has rebounded over 8% since its July low, recording four consecutive positive days. This round of increase is primarily driven by short covering and not a trend-driven inflow of institutional funds.

2. Funding and Liquidation DataAccording to CoinGlass data, there were liquidations of $207 million across the network in the past 24 hours, of which $147 million was from short positions, accounting for over 70%, with about 65,000 traders being liquidated. The short squeeze has been a direct driving force behind this rebound.

3. Industry and Sentiment
Expectations continue to build for Morgan Stanley's submission for an SOL ETF issuance. The public blockchain sector leads the mainstream coins in elasticity. After the EU MiCA regulatory framework officially took effect, the clearing of unlicensed platforms is still in progress, which will exert pressure on market liquidity in the medium to long term.
The crypto fear and greed index has slightly recovered from a previously extreme fear zone but remains in the fear range. Overall market confidence has yet to recover, and the willingness to chase prices is weak.


Second, Overall Market Qualitative Analysis
The major bearish structure at the daily time frame has not yet been reversed; this is a technical rebound after an oversold condition. After four consecutive days of increases, the 1-hour timeframe has shown overbought signals, indicating a potential demand for a pullback in the short term. The sustainability of the rebound needs to be validated by trading volume. The focus is on short-term swings; if the rebound meets resistance, shorting takes priority over chasing after a rise, and heavy bottom-fishing is prohibited.

Third, BTC Bitcoin Market and Precise Entry Points

Key Levels
• Short-term Support: 62000 (intraday bull-bear dividing line), 61300 (strong support, rebound defense line)
• Short-term Resistance: 63500 (first selling pressure zone, three recent attempts have not broken through), 64500-65000 (mid-term strong resistance area)

Technical Analysis
The short-term moving average golden cross is present in the 4-hour timeframe, with MACD red bars increasing; short-term bullish momentum still exists. However, the 1-hour RSI has entered the overbought zone, and MACD bullish momentum is beginning to shrink. The selling pressure is concentrated around 63500, increasing the chances of a short-term pullback. The daily timeframe remains below mid- to long-term moving averages, and the overall trend is still bearish.

Precise Entry Strategy

1. Short Position (Priority Approach)
◦ Entry Range: 63300-63600, build positions in batches
◦ Stop Loss: above 64000 (exit on substantial breakthrough)
◦ Take Profit: first target 62300, second target 61500

2. Long Position (only join after a pullback stabilizes)
◦ Entry Range: 61800-62100, enter lightly after stabilization
◦ Stop Loss: below 61300
◦ Take Profit: first target 63000, second target 63500

3. Mid-term Approach: do not establish mid-term long positions until firmly above 65000; if effectively breaking below 61000, confirm the end of the rebound and return to a downtrend.

Fourth, ETH Ethereum Market and Precise Entry Points

Key Levels
• Short-term Support: 1730 (first support), 1680 (strong support, mid-term lifeline)
• Short-term Resistance: 1830-1850 (first selling pressure zone), 1900 (daily trend reversal point)

Technical Analysis
This rebound shows significantly stronger elasticity than BTC. The 4-hour timeframe has stabilized above the short-term moving averages, and bullish momentum has been more fully released. However, the price has touched the upper Bollinger band, revealing short-term overbought signals. The resistance from upper mid- to long-term moving averages is heavy, making a direct reversal difficult, and it's likely that after the rebound, it will enter a consolidation phase.

Precise Entry Strategy

1. Short Position
◦ Entry Range: 1820-1850, build positions in batches after hitting resistance
◦ Stop Loss: above 1880
◦ Take Profit: first target 1760, second target 1720

2. Long Position
◦ Entry Range: 1710-1730, buy on pullback after stabilization
◦ Stop Loss: below 1680
◦ Take Profit: first target 1800, second target 1830

3. Mid-term Approach: the 1650-1680 range can be a good area for batch positioning in small sizes for mid-term base building, with a defensive level at $1500 and mid-term targets towards $1900-2000.

Fifth, SOL Solana Market and Precise Entry Points

Key Levels
• Short-term Support: 78.5 (first support), 76.0 (strong support, mid-term positioning line)
• Short-term Resistance: 83.5-84.5 (first selling pressure zone), 87.0 (strong resistance point)

Technical Analysis
SOL is a high-elasticity public chain coin, catalyzed by ETF expectations, leading the mainstream coins in this round of rebound, with volatility much larger than BTC and ETH. The current price is fluctuating around the 80 level, with RSI in a balance zone, short-term bullish but selling pressure gradually emerging above, and the market links with the broader market while amplifying price movements.

Precise Entry Strategy
1. Short Position
◦ Entry Range: 83.0-84.0, enter after hitting resistance
◦ Stop Loss: above 85.5
◦ Take Profit: first target 80.0, second target 78.0

2. Long Position
◦ Entry Range: 77.5-78.5, enter on pullback after stabilization
◦ Stop Loss: below 76.0
◦ Take Profit: first target 82.0, second target 83.5

3. Mid-term Approach: the 74-76 range is a quality area for batch positioning in small sizes, with total positions below BTC/ETH and strict stop-loss settings, exit if it falls below $70.

Sixth, Trading Discipline
1. Position Control: total short-term position not exceeding 15% of principal, reduce positions by half for high-volatility assets like SOL, and prohibit high leverage use.
2. Execution Principle: this is currently a bear market rebound, prioritize short positions over chasing longs; all positions must have stop losses, and do not carry positions without them.
3. Time Risk: the US stock market is reopening today, and after liquidity recovery this evening, volatility may amplify, so avoid heavy positions overnight.
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