Weekly Editor's Picks (0627-0703)

CN
2 hours ago

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analytical articles are easily submerged by hotspots. The "Weekly Editor's Selection" column extracts these valuable insights from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and inspire thinking.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Metrics Ventures Market Watch: The World's Vulnerability is Rapidly Accumulating

Since 2022, global supply chain disruptions have led the economies of Japan, South Korea, Europe, and others to gradually fall into difficulties regarding resilience and the autonomy of monetary and fiscal policies. This is silently accumulating momentum for future shocks in the global capital markets. Apart from AI and some non-ferrous industries, liquidity exhaustion is taking place, and vulnerable countries are flocking toward concentrated trading, which is bound to have a poor ending in the current international political and economic situation.

We need to seriously consider the possibility of MSTR continuously selling BTC, and the long-awaited demand only makes BTC's value as a hedging strategy against other assets increasingly advantageous.

What does Apple's $4.3 trillion market cap mean? A stock valuation course that even novices can understand

Starting with the price-to-earnings ratio, understand the basic pricing of stock prices relative to earnings, and compare it with the company's historical averages and industry peers. Add the PEG ratio to consider the growth rate — a high P/E ratio is more justifiable when growth rates are high. Use the price-to-sales ratio to obtain a less manipulable perspective from a revenue dimension. Calculate the free cash flow yield and directly compare it with the risk-free rate — this is the clearest expression of the actual cash return you receive from the business versus risk-free alternatives. Use EV/EBITDA for horizontal comparisons across capital structures. Assess business quality with ROE and ROIC to provide a basis for reasonable premiums. Finally, take a step back and think about the DCF question: what growth rate is implied by the current price? Is this realistic?

Valuation is not a formula that outputs buy or sell recommendations. It is a language — helping you think clearly about what you're paying for, what you are getting, and whether this deal is worthwhile after considering everything you know.

Also recommended: “From SpaceX, Micron to Galaxy Digital, a look at the 37 new AI companies and 7 crypto dark horses added by Russell” and “CZ Talks Investment: 70% Crypto, 20% AI, 10% Biotechnology, invested in ‘artificial womb’ and ‘knee regeneration’.”

Web3 & AI

The cheaper AI becomes, the more expensive chips get

In past AI narratives, there was a line: reasoning efficiency would eliminate chip demand. However, the fact is that the cheaper AI becomes, the more valuable physical computing power is — every penny that model vendors squeeze on price ultimately flows into the pockets of chip and wafer manufacturers.

Nvidia is about to start taking money from cloud vendors

Nvidia is offering financial backing promises to young cloud service providers renting its GPUs — if these companies cannot find enough AI developers to rent computing power, Nvidia will buy back their unsold GPU capacity at an agreed price. In exchange, Nvidia will take a certain percentage of revenue from these cloud service providers, and the revenue share percentage will gradually decrease as the contract progresses.

The "AI Computing Power Cooperation Program" marks an important strategic shift for Nvidia: on one hand, expanding its customer base by lowering financing thresholds for emerging cloud service providers, and on the other hand, directly participating in downstream computing power market profit distribution through revenue sharing, further extending its control over the AI supply chain. Nvidia is evolving from a chip seller to the "central bank" of the AI computing power ecosystem.

On the eve of going to the US, SK Hynix plummeted like a mud dog

The news that “Meta may release surplus computing power” sparked speculation about major firms potentially reducing capital spending, leading to sharp market fluctuations. As the narrative of AI computing power being "absolutely scarce" begins to loosen, the semiconductor memory chip sector has been directly impacted, with related concept stocks experiencing a substantial pullback in the secondary market — SK Hynix's shares closed down 14.57%, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value in a single day.

However, this round of rapid decline for SK Hynix, including the significant sector pullback, is closer to a liquidity stomp driven by emotional amplification rather than a substantive reversal of industry trends.

Apple and the "Microns" Power Reshuffle: Breaking Down the Profit Bill Behind the iPhone

In the profit of an iPhone, Apple takes about one-quarter, memory giants take only about one-third, and TSMC, due to its monopoly position, takes about 4%-5% of the profit; the remaining portion is covered by other hardware suppliers, channels, R&D, and taxes.

With AI backing, storage suppliers are finally standing taller in front of Apple.

Prediction Markets

Predicting the World Cup knockout stage: how different AI levels differ so much?

Gemini and DeepSeek write about niche scripts, Grok and Qianwen grasp popular games with small margins, while ChatGPT and Claude are more suitable for analyzing game processes.

Frequent upsets in the World Cup, the “dumb money” of the prediction market made me laugh

Loss cases do not have counter-reference value.

Policies and Stablecoins

MiCA Transition Ends, License Shortage, Europe Faces Largest Exchange Exit

On July 1, the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) transition grace period officially ended.

About 194 crypto enterprises have obtained official MiCA authorization, with Coinbase in Luxembourg, Kraken in Ireland, OKX in Malta, and Bybit in Austria completing licensing ahead of schedule; Bitget, KuCoin, etc. are applying and have not yet landed; Binance has withdrawn its application in Greece, temporarily causing user and fund outflows.

A major threat has arrived, CRCL plummets over 17%

The new USD stablecoin Open Standard's Open USD will officially launch later this year, with a gorgeous list of collaborators, and the income generated from reserve assets will belong to the partners.

From the outset, Open USD stands at a significantly higher starting point in compliance, channel, and adoption rates compared to ordinary new projects.

Also recommended: “Circle CEO Responds to OUSD Challenge: Stablecoin 'Winner Takes All' — Alliance Model is Doomed to Fail”, “Stock Prices Halved in 45 Days, Is Circle Actually the 'DeFi Barometer'?”, “CLARITY Act Countdown: 25 Days — What Will Happen to the Crypto Market If It Is Not Passed Before the August Recess?”.

CeFi & DeFi

Lightning Round Up! Strategy's Self-Rescue Plan is Officially Launched

Strategy has officially released a new plan called the “Digital Credit Capital Framework”, aimed at strengthening the credit quality of various preferred stocks under the company (clearly referring to STRC), improving liquidity, and creating long-term value for shareholders while maintaining long-term Bitcoin exposure.

This includes: cash reserve status; STRC dividend policy; preferred stock repurchase plan; common stock repurchase plan; Bitcoin liquidation plan.

The market has a relatively positive expectation for Strategy's self-rescue plan. Both MSTR and STRC have risen.

Why is it difficult for STRC preferred shares to return to $100?

A higher dividend rate will become a financial burden for Strategy, potentially worsening its financial condition; offering high dividend rates in adverse environments can also become a negative psychological factor for investors. Therefore, adjusting the dividend rate cannot be a fundamental solution. Unless redemption occurs, the claim right of $100 per share is meaningless.

Also recommended: “If Strategy Really Sold 491 Bitcoins, What Would Be the Market Impact?”.

Meme

Real-life "Black Mirror" Pumpfun Go: 40 Yuan to Lick a Toilet, $14,000 Logo Tattooed on Forehead

Ethereum and Scaling

EF: Ethereum is Becoming the Most Needed Neutral Infrastructure for Governments and Institutions

Weekly Hotspot Recap

Policies and Macro Markets

The US CFTC has initiated a wide investigation into Polymarket;

The SEC has launched an ETF rules review, focusing on crypto funds and prediction market ETFs;

The SEC is investigating Futu and Tiger Brokers for insider trading, profiting $100 million through options bets;

Waller: The Federal Reserve will embark on a new course, not providing forward guidance; Inflation risk has declined;

Trump disclosed holding over $100 million in BTC and ETH, with reported income exceeding $1.4 billion for the 2025 filing period; Trump responded to receiving substantial cryptocurrency profits: he was not aware;

Trump: made a lot of money from the stock market, last year's profits were solely due to the rise in the stock market, funds managed by professional institutions;

South Korea will invest 800 trillion won to build chip factories for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (interpretation);

Opinions and Voices

Anthropic CEO warns: open-source AI is heading down a dangerous path, with irreversible misuse risks;

Cathie Wood: New AI technology opens a productivity cycle, and the inflation rebound narrative has been weakened by macro data;

Wall Street interprets “Meta selling computing power” as collapsing AI hardware: it's not equivalent to computing power oversupply, nor is it an industry turning point;

“1011 Insider Whale” agent: AI computing power trading is switching, with funds flowing from memory chips to large-scale cloud vendors;

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: STRC's steep decline is a bottom signal, the bull market will begin in the fall;

Galaxy: The US SEC custody rules have structural conflicts with DeFi demand, limiting RIA allocation of on-chain assets;

Institutions, Big Companies, and Leading Projects

Securitize lists on the NYSE (interpretation);

Robinhood Chain goes live on its mainnet, launching tokenized stocks, perpetual contracts, and AI agent trading simultaneously;

OKX launches a decentralized platform, OKX.AI, aimed at the agent economy;

Data

Whales accumulating and institutions retreating: 270,000 BTC inflows over two weeks reveal potential cycle bottom characteristics;

SOL meme coin ANSEM rushes to a $100 million market cap (review);

Security

Base reveals the reasons for two recent outages, attributed to sequencer vulnerabilities...

Attached is the latest installment of the “Weekly Editor's Selection” series link. See you next time~

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