Author: Dan Bin, Gelonghui

On June 29, Dan Bin, Chairman of Dongfang Hongwan, delivered a keynote speech titled "Do Not Miss a Great Era" at the Gelonghui "2026--All in Silicon-Based New Era" mid-term strategy summit.

Regarding the market's concern about the AI bubble, Dan Bin pointed out from an industrial cycle perspective: "The risk of missing an era may be greater than worrying about short-term bubble risks."

In his view, humanity is standing at the starting point of the artificial intelligence era—this era may be more disruptive than the electronic era, internet era, or mobile internet era.

He assesses that the wave of AI is unlikely to end in three to four years and that the industrial perspective could refer to the decade-long rhythm of the internet era, with the end of 2022, when ChatGPT was released, as the starting point. The real risk reference point is around 2033.

He pointed out that the "main reason" driving long-term growth in the capital market is technological advancement, while trade wars, interest rate hikes, and wars are merely secondary factors. He also discussed from the perspective of human civilization the long-term logic of silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life, emphasizing that investments should focus on the main reasons, respect enterprise innovation and market common sense.

Finally, he emphasized that we must not waste this great era.

“The tide never turns back, the great wheel of the era rolls forward silently. To be born at the right time is a great fortune; do not let hesitation trap your steps, do not let shortsightedness waste the years—definitely do not miss this magnificent great era that belongs to us."

Below are the highlights of Dan Bin's speech organized by Gelonghui, shared with everyone.

01 From the Industrial Cycle Perspective, the Risk of Missing the AI Era is Greater than Worrying about Short-Term Bubble Risks

Recently, many have been asking: Is there a bubble in AI? What about in the short term?

Dan Bin's answer is: From the perspective of long-term industrial development, for market participants, the risk of missing an era may be greater than your concern about short-term bubble risks. Naturally, in the face of short-term volatility and uncertainty, investors also need to make independent judgments based on their own investment cycles and risk tolerance.

Looking back at the 55-year history of Nasdaq since its establishment in 1971, the core driving force behind long-term growth in the capital market is technological advancement, not short-term factors like interest rates or macro policies.

Some are concerned that a high-interest-rate environment will lead to market collapse.

Let's look at history: In the 1970s, the U.S. benchmark interest rate reached as high as 22%, but the electronic hardware era saw a 6.5-fold increase over 16 years; the internet era experienced a complete cycle of interest rate reductions and hikes, dramatically rising for a full 10 years; the mobile internet era was the same. Interest rates have never been the main issue; technological advancement is the main issue.

02, The AI Era is More Disruptive than the Previous Three Eras; On the Industrial Level, It Could Refer to the Decade-Rhythm of the Internet Era

He further pointed out that during last year's annual meeting, he had predicted that 2026 might resemble 1994—after a significant turning point, a big rise could follow. In 2023, 2024, and 2025, the market has risen significantly for three years, and this year still shows strong industrial driving force.

"Why? Because the AI era is more disruptive than the first three eras—electronic era, internet era, mobile internet era."

Dan Bin's basic judgment is: The artificial intelligence era will, like the internet era, have a long industrial cycle—ChatGPT was announced at the end of 2022, and if we refer to the "ten years" historical rhythm of the internet, that point (around 2033) is likely to be a reference window for examining risks, before which the industrial development of AI is unlikely to end in three to four years. However, short-term market volatility and localized bubbles exist objectively, and investors should still rationally assess based on their own situations.

03, The Long-Term Vision of Silicon-Based Life: A Thought Experiment from a Civilizational Perspective

Dan Bin presented two videos, broadening the view from the capital market to the dimension of human civilization.

His viewpoint is highly imaginative: Silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life is a highly probable direction. If Earth's civilization is to continue, silicon-based life is likely to replace carbon-based life and may become the dominant productive force.

He provided a set of time coordinates spanning vast lengths:

In 4.1 billion years, the sun may expand into a red giant and engulf the Earth, or it may collapse into a white dwarf.

Voyager has been on its journey for 77 years, still about 70,000 light years from the edge of the solar system.

In 10 billion years, the Andromeda galaxy may collide with the Milky Way—by then, humanity must escape the Milky Way.

"Carbon-based life cannot escape the Milky Way. However, silicon-based life—being a million times smarter than us, thinking and working continuously 24 hours a day—could result in revolutionary changes that bring civilization to even greater heights in ways beyond our understanding."

Dan Bin noted that this is not a short-term investment judgment, but rather provides a framework for thinking: The economic growth paradigm brought by silicon-based intelligence may have infinite possibilities and a longer industrial chain, understanding this helps to step out of the immediate chaos and examine long-term trends.

04, Technology Rewrites the Rules of War; Neither China nor the U.S. Can Afford to Lose the AI Competition

Dan Bin showcased a recent case from the Russo-Ukrainian battlefield: a Russian soldier captured by Ukrainian drones and robots.

“The weaponization of AI is an exponential change; it is an inevitable process.”

He believes that neither China nor the U.S. can afford to lose this AI race. The U.S. has an advantage in core technologies and top talents, while China forms differentiated competitiveness in application scenarios, data scale, and completeness of the industrial chain. Both sides continue to intensify their long-term investments in AI.

05, Buffett's "Regret" and the Cognitive Iteration of Dongfang Hongwan

Dan Bin compared the changes in holdings of "old legends" in China and the U.S.

Buffett bought Google in the third quarter of last year and continued to increase his position this year, with Google entering Berkshire's top five holdings.

“Munger, before his passing, stated in an interview that his era should earn 100 billion or even 1 trillion. He has such a good relationship with Bill Gates but only symbolically bought 100 shares of Microsoft. Microsoft has increased 7000 times.”

“If he had taken out 1 billion from Coca-Cola to buy Microsoft, it would be 700 billion, more than all the money he made.”

Dan Bin admitted that these historical snippets cannot predict the future, but they remind us that investing requires constantly breaking cognitive boundaries. Dongfang Hongwan is also iterating and evolving: our company research team is continuously tracking AI basic computing power, storage, and other areas.

06, Calmly Maintain the Landscape, Rationally Hold the Chips Granted by the Era

Dan Bin concluded with a poem he wrote:

“The tide never turns back, the great wheel of the era rolls forward silently.

Some are trapped in the fragmented noise before them, while others stand above the cycles gazing at the starry river.

No need to be tangled in the ups and downs of the moment, no need to blindly follow the momentary highs and lows.

Mountains and rivers are reborn in times of change, opportunities bloom in long steadfastness.

To be born at the right time is a great fortune; do not let hesitation trap your steps, do not let shortsightedness waste the years.

Live well, move forward seriously, and absolutely do not miss this magnificent era that belongs to us.”

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