On July 3, 2026, the path of U.S. interest rates suddenly transformed into a politically colored "multiplayer game": on one side were deepening institutional divergences—Isabelle Mateos y Lago from BNP Paribas suggested that if the July non-farm employment figures approached or exceeded 130,000, the information from the July FOMC meeting would be "full of suspense"; on the other side, Ludovic Subran from Allianz insisted that the non-farm jobs data was essentially weak, inflation had peaked above 3.7% and was stubborn, thus betting that the Federal Reserve would be more likely forced to raise interest rates in September. Short-term interest rate futures also began to leave some space for a rate increase on July 29, wavering between "acting in July" or "raising again in September." At the same time, the political arena was no longer just background noise: about a week before, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen had hinted that she hoped the Federal Reserve would maintain an "open attitude" toward inflation and anticipated a potential easing of policy this year; the Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Hassett, was seen as a key figure exerting pressure on monetary policy from Trump’s team. Now, Fed "mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos cited Trump, labeling Chair Waller as a dovish member within the FOMC, which implied that the open tone set by Trump's team might initiate a new stage in which political forces more directly shape forward guidance. In contrast to the European Central Bank's "insurance rate hike followed by inaction," expectations for a divergence in U.S. and European monetary policies became increasingly clear. Interest rate expectations and the U.S. dollar liquidity curve were thus forced to be reassessed amidst such divergence and intervention, and assets like BTC and ETH, highly sensitive to U.S. interest rates, dollar flow, and macro risk appetite, saw their risk premiums re-priced in this struggle over "who will dominate the Federal Reserve."

Trump Sets Tone: Waller's Dovish Label; Forward Guidance Taken Over by Politics

Nick Timiraos has always been seen as a "mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve," with his articles previously serving as projections of internal thinking during Powell's era. Now, the same channel has quoted Trump, directly labeling newly appointed Chair Waller as “dovish within the FOMC,” effectively allowing the political side to define the characters for the Federal Reserve. The narrative familiar to the market of "an independent central bank speaking for itself, with Timiraos translating" has been forcefully changed to "the White House gives conclusions, and the mouthpiece amplifies," diminishing the traditional sense of communication independence. Consequently, every future attempt by Waller to demonstrate a hawkish stance would first have to navigate the shadow of these political expectations.

This is not an isolated statement. About a week ago, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen had already publicly hinted that she hoped the Federal Reserve would maintain an "open attitude" toward inflation and anticipated an easing of policy this year; White House Council of Economic Advisers Director Hassett was named in the briefing as a key figure in applying strong pressure on monetary policy from Trump's team. The Treasury, the White House economic team, and the President himself, through the same discourse chain, combined “this year’s easing + Waller’s dovish stance” into a political version of forward guidance, effectively pre-defining the interest rate range and rhythm for the FOMC. As a result, the current phase is described as possibly initiating a "new era of forward guidance": the market is now required to see Trump's team's public tone as a new pricing benchmark, leaving a specific weight for this political constraint in interest rate futures, yield curves, and even risk asset premiums.

Institutional Division: July Suspense vs. September Rate Hike Gamble

While the political side was “pre-defining the range,” traditional institutions had not provided a unified answer. Isabelle Mateos y Lago from BNP Paribas focused on the upcoming non-farm employment figures: as long as the July non-farm employment number approached or exceeded 130,000, the July FOMC meeting would be "full of suspense," and the possibility of a rate hike in July transformed into a "live trading" situation only realized on the eve of the opening. Her logic tied the turning point of the interest rate path to a set of high-frequency data, effectively telling interest rate and risk asset traders that July itself was a meeting that must be "live" and could not be easily locked down by Trump-style forward guidance.

Allianz's chief economist Ludovic Subran provided a narrative almost on another timeline: in his view, the U.S. non-farm employment data is actually weak, with the real issue being that inflation will peak above 3.7% and is stubborn, supported by artificial intelligence, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector to underpin growth. Based on this, he judged that the rate hike is not "needed now," but will "eventually come"—more likely in September. This reverse interpretation of the same set of data caused the market to waver between “short-term growth risks” and “medium-term inflation risks,” extending the policy uncertainty from July to September. The quotes from short-term interest rate futures thus displayed a deliberate ambiguity: implying only that a July 29 rate hike "is possible," but did not provide a clear probability substantial enough to form a strong anchor, with the interest rate curve switching back and forth between “acting in July” and “delaying until September.”

This division is not merely confined to reports and interviews, but has been dissected at the funding level into a bet on two scenarios: part of the capital bets on “the July suspense being broken, acting early,” aiming to reduce leverage before July and increasing demands for risk-free returns; another part places chips on “raising in September,” attempting to use the interest rate vacuum during the July waiting period for a summer carry on risk assets and on-chain yields. Due to short-term interest rate futures failing to provide a clear direction, the risk premiums of assets like BTC and ETH were forced to be repeatedly re-priced between these two paths, with pricing and on-chain position structures evolving into a voting implication on “July vs September rate hikes,” which will be one of the core variables to observe shifts in funding stance in the coming weeks.

Inflation Stickiness and AI Dividend: U.S. Tightening Space Remains

Behind the facade of "weak non-farm" data, the market’s willingness to leave space for an additional rate hike from the Federal Reserve is largely because the fundamentals have not truly weakened. Allianz's chief economist Ludovic Subran admits that the current non-farm data is indeed weak, yet emphasizes that inflation might peak above 3.7% and is persistent. This combination of “growth not collapsing, prices not falling” redefines the situation from “the end of the cycle” to “the edge of overheating under high pressure.” Supporting this resilience are investments related to artificial intelligence, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector bolstering U.S. growth—AI drives corporate capital expenditure, fiscal measures extend demand cycles, and the energy sector provides buffers for exports and employment. Based on this, Subran predicts that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates again in September, and short-term interest rate futures have already reserved the possibility of a rate hike on July 29: even if the employment data tells a story of slowing, the stickiness of inflation combined with AI and fiscal benefits still gives “longer periods of tight rates” fundamental support.

From a transatlantic perspective, this support translates directly into a divergence in monetary policy. Subran defined the last action by the European Central Bank as an “insurance rate hike,” believing that no further hikes are necessary, and the market has gradually priced the ECB as pausing, while the discussion on the U.S. side is still about acting in July and raising in September. The divergence in interest rate paths between Europe and America means that there is space for the dollar's relative interest margin to continue widening, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar assets in pricing terms. For crypto assets priced primarily in dollars, such as BTC and ETH, there exists a clear transmission chain: higher, more sustained U.S. dollar interest rates push up the discount rate and risk-free return benchmarks, raising the opportunity cost of holding long-term risk positions on-chain, while also siphoning off some cash flows that would otherwise remain in dollar assets on-chain. The future viability of AI-driven U.S. growth, whether the ECB truly remains inactive, and the resulting shape of the dollar interest margin curve will jointly decide whether this round of the "inflation stickiness + AI dividend" narrative exerts pressure on BTC and ETH risk premiums as mere short-term noise or as the starting point for a new downward shift in valuation.

Interest Rate Curve in Flux: BTC, ETH, and Dollar Asset Repricing

Short-term interest rate futures currently reflect not a confirmed rate hike, but a swinging price for a "possible hike on July 29," with the market switching back and forth between “acting in July, observing in September” and “remaining inactive in July, raising again in September.” The two rhythms imply drastically different combinations of short and long-term interest rates: on one side, a short end supported by stubborn inflation and expectations of a September rate hike, and on the other, a long end suppressed by political signals of “potential easing this year.” Following Treasury Secretary Yellen's public hopes for easing this year, Trump labeling Waller as dovish through the “Federal Reserve mouthpiece,” and Hassett being named as a key pressure figure, this “political forward guidance” advanced the expectations of easing for long-term rates into the curve, while the inflation stickiness and fundamentals supported by AI, fiscal policy, and energy emphasized by Subran, forced the short end to remain tight. The term spread repeatedly oscillates in this mismatch, coupled with expectations of diverging monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe, leading to fluctuations in the dollar index, and the discount rate for global risk assets continuously recalculated.

For BTC and ETH, this issue transcends merely "a little higher interest rates," as the discount anchor itself wobbles. When the short end remains tight and the dollar strengthens, holding non-yielding on-chain assets significantly increases the opportunity cost compared to holding cash or short-term bonds in dollars, prompting the market to require higher risk premiums to hold BTC and ETH, and overall pressuring their spot and forward valuation centers; once political discourse reinforces expectations of "easing by year-end,” the long end quickly drops, pushing funds to short-term replenish high-beta asset positions, with volatility magnified by political signals. The “new era of forward guidance” described in research briefings essentially render interest rate curves more driven by political narratives, increasing the uncertainty of the curves, and macro trading funds are more inclined to treat BTC and ETH as highly elastic tools for expressing dollar liquidity and real interest rate expectations, executing correlation trades between the “rate hike path” and “dollar assets.” Ultimately, how July and September jointly solidify this fluctuating interest rate curve will determine the pricing center of BTC and ETH relative to dollar assets, whether remaining in a high discount zone or being pushed towards more aggressive re-inflation trading ranges by political easing narratives.

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