Hello everyone, I am Lao Jin. Today is June 30, 2026, the last trading day of this month, and the monthly K-line will officially close tomorrow morning. From the current trend, it is highly likely that this monthly bearish line has not yet completed its move, and there is still potential for further downside space to be released, so my overall judgment for the market remains bearish.

Yesterday four trades were executed, and the market continues to follow the script.

Let’s review yesterday's market. On Monday, the market ran relatively smoothly. In our morning commentary, we clearly pointed out that Bitcoin began laying out short positions around 60500 and emphasized a core logic: as long as 58500 is not effectively broken, the market is still in a phase of consolidation and rebound, and the idea of shorting high and going long low still stands.

Yesterday, in real trading, we shorted at 61000, went long at 59400, shorted again at 60700, and continued shorting at 60200. After the market rebounded, we laid out another short position around 60500. Currently, we have already secured over 700 points in profit. Bitcoin's daily volatility reached 3600 points, and Ethereum's volatility was 94 points. There were plenty of opportunities; the key is whether one can understand the logic and execute decisively.

Downward channel pressure is obvious, each peak is lower than the last

From a technical perspective, the current price is still moving within a three-hour descending channel. The lower edge of the channel is currently around 60000 and continues to drop over time, with every K-line being persistently suppressed by the trend line.

This means that even if there is a market rebound, it is more like a repair during a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. Since breaking down on June 24, each rebound's peak has been lower than the previous one, forming a very clear structure of lower highs, indicating that the bears still hold the initiative in the trend.

58500: The bulls' last defense

However, the 58500 level is still worth noting. Since June 26, the price has tested and even pierced the vicinity of 58500 several times, but there has never been a valid breakdown of a four-hour bearish entity line. After each test at the bottom, it has rebounded to around 59500, providing nearly 1000 points of rebound space.

Thus, under the overall bearish premise, I still believe there are short-term long opportunities around 58500. However, I need to remind everyone that testing the same support level multiple times does deplete the bulls' strength. Once the four-hour entity line effectively breaks below 58500, the market is likely to further probe around 56500, triggering a new round of accelerated decline.

62000: An important pressure area for the bears

Recently, Ethereum's performance has significantly outpaced Bitcoin's. While I cannot fully explain why it broke out first, if Ethereum continues to maintain its strength, it may drive Bitcoin to further rise.

From the perspective of weekly and monthly K-lines, Bitcoin has the potential to challenge the MA5 moving average around 62000. However, I want to emphasize that 62000 is not a bullish position, but an important pressure area that needs close attention. Unless the price can break through strongly and stabilize above it, 62000 remains an ideal area for shorting and an important opportunity for friends holding positions to adjust.

Today's strategy: Short high and long low, follow the trend on breakouts

The trading thoughts for today are very clear:

In the 60500 to 61000 range, we will primarily short on high;

If the price revisits around 58500, we can attempt short-term longs;

If 58500 is effectively broken by the four-hour entity line, we will switch to shorting, with targets focusing on the 56500 line.

Gold perspective: Rebound is not a reversal, continue to view bearish for the medium to long term

Lastly, let me briefly discuss gold. My view has remained unchanged; the medium to long position short initiated above 4080 continues to hold. Although gold has retraced by over 100 points, such an adjustment is far from sufficient considering the previous increase.

The first target still focuses on the 3895 to 3900 area,

The second target focuses on around 3736,

In the long run, gold still has the potential to return to the 3300 to 3360 area.

The rise driven by capital will eventually end, and prices will return to where they should be, while I believe gold's adjustment is still far from over.

A rebound is not a reversal; support is not a bottom. Until the trend truly shifts, going with the trend is always more important than making subjective bottom calls.

——Lao Jin

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