Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.06 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58%, or $1.2 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $313.2 billion, down 0.67% in the past 7 days, with USDT making up 59.04% of that.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, a small portion increased while most decreased, including: BTC which fell 6.96% over 7 days, ETH down 7.13% over 7 days, SOL up 3.88% over 7 days, BEAT rising 41.19% in 7 days, and JTO rising 19.88% in 7 days.
This week, the net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $1.788 billion; the net outflow from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF is $273 million.
Market Forecast (June 22 - June 28):
RSI index is at 45.48 (neutral, down from last week), fear and greed index is at 17 (extreme fear), altcoin season index is at 54 (neutral).
BTC: $58,000-64,000
ETH: $1,700-2,000
SOL: $68-98
Risk Warning:
Uncertainty in macro policy: Higher than expected PCE inflation data has reignited market concerns about a July rate hike by the Federal Reserve (market forecasts show a probability of 23%). If Fed officials make hawkish comments, it could suppress all risk assets.
Institutional sell-offs and ETF fund outflows: In June, over $2.5 billion flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a lack of confidence in the market due to continuous outflows of institutional funds. There are also concerns that Strategy, which holds a significant amount of Bitcoin, may be forced to sell due to financial pressure, potentially creating downward pressure in the market.
Large liquidity migration and market structure differentiation: The main contradiction in the current market is the migration of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market to AI and tech stocks, leading to insufficient market funds and generally putting pressure on altcoins.
The technical outlook for mainstream coins is weak: Mainstream coins like ETH are currently below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that medium to long-term trends still lean bearish. Technical recovery needs time and volume to coordinate.
Understanding the Present
Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Key Level
On June 25, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, dipping to around $59,000, which represents a retreat of over 50% from its historical high. The overall cryptocurrency market was thus under pressure, with market value significantly evaporating.
Network Liquidation Amount Approaches $1 Billion
The market's extreme volatility led to large-scale liquidation of leveraged positions. CoinGlass data shows that within 24 hours around June 25, the total liquidation amount across the network approached $1 billion, affecting over 170,000 investors.
Institutional Funds Continue to Exit, ETFs Net Selling for Six Consecutive Weeks
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has faced sustained selling pressure. As of the week ending June 26, the ETF has shown net outflows for approximately six weeks, totaling nearly $3 billion since June. A Deutsche Bank report noted that this reflects Bitcoin's increasing status as a risk asset driven by institutional fund flows.
$10 Billion Options Expiry Intensifies Market Volatility
On June 26, options with a notional value of approximately $10 billion for Bitcoin expired on Deribit exchange, accounting for about 37% of the total open contracts, making it a key event for the market this week. A significant number of call options are out of the money, which may prompt traders to adopt defensive strategies, exacerbating short-term downward pressure.
Strategy's Leveraged Purchase Model Questioned
The financing model of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which previously held Bitcoin for a long time, is facing scrutiny. Its preferred stock price has fallen below par value, leading to a suspension of related securities issuance, and the market is beginning to question the effectiveness of its “Saylor bid” strategy that supports continuous Bitcoin purchases, impacting investor confidence.
Macro Headwind: Fed's Hawkish Stance and Strong Dollar
This week, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish posture, raising rate hike expectations, which strengthened the dollar and exerted systemic pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Analysts believe that macro factors are one of the core reasons for this decline.
AI Frenzy Absorbing Speculative Funds, BlackRock Speaks Out
A narrative has emerged in the market that the "AI frenzy is absorbing liquidity from cryptocurrencies." BlackRock's head of digital assets pointed out that AI has become the dominant narrative in the market, with a substantial amount of capital flowing out of assets like Bitcoin and gold to chase AI-related opportunities. Renowned figures like Arthur Hayes have expressed similar views.
Market Sentiment Dives into "Extreme Fear"
As prices continue to decline, the fear and greed index for the cryptocurrency market has fallen to 15, indicating “extreme fear,” reflecting severely low investor confidence.
BlackRock: U.S. Debt Issues May Become Long-Term Positive
Despite short-term pressures, BlackRock believes that as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, market attention to the U.S. debt level and fiscal deficit may rise, which will be an important driving force for Bitcoin's long-term demand, as it may be seen as a hedge against debt and currency depreciation.
Mainstream Altcoins Generally Decline
Under Bitcoin's lead decline, major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and Solana also experienced significant drops. Among them, Ethereum's decline this week exceeded 9%, and Solana and other coins also saw notable declines.
Macroeconomics
On June 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week of June 20 was 215,000, expected to be 225,000, with the previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.
The annualized real GDP growth rate for the first quarter in the U.S. was finalized at 2.1%, expected to be 1.60%, with the previous value at 1.60%. The core PCE price index for May in the U.S. recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which met market expectations and was the highest since October 2023.
As of June 19, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates at the current level in July is reported at 71.2%, with a 28.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.
ETF
Statistics show that from June 22 to June 26, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Outflow was $1.788 billion; as of June 26, GBTC (Grayscale) had total outflows of $27.055 billion, currently holding $8.23 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $50.459 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $76.21 billion.
U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF Net Outflow was $273 million.
Forecasting the Future
Industry Conferences
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held from July 1 to 3, 2026, in Kyoto, Japan.
WebX 2026 will take place from July 13 to 14, 2026, in Tokyo, Japan.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held from August 27 to 28, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Important Events
Forward Industries, the treasury company of Solana, will be included in the Russell Index, with adjustments taking effect after the U.S. stock market opens on June 29. This index restructuring is based on the ranking of the top 3,000 U.S. companies by market cap as of April 30.
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires digital asset exchanges and custodians to meet standards by June 30, 2027, or face suspension or revocation of licenses.
The U.S. CFTC provides non-enforcement action relief for the conversion of perpetual contracts for digital goods, valid until June 30, 2026.
Russia plans to improve relevant legislative framework before July 1, 2026.
The European Union’s Regulation on Markets in Crypto-assets (MiCA) transitional period will end on July 1, and crypto platforms without MiCA licenses will not be able to continue providing services to EU users, putting millions of users at risk of service interruption.
The White House plans to promote the passage of the CLARITY Act in the House of Representatives on July 4.
On July 1 at 20:15, the U.S. will release June ADP employment figures (thousands).
On July 2 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the June unemployment rate.
On July 2 at 20:30, the U.S. will release June adjusted non-farm payroll figures (thousands).
Project Progress
Securitize and CEPT's business merger shareholders meeting is scheduled for June 29, and upon completion of the merger, it will be listed on the NYSE under the code "SECZ."
The DeFi lending protocol Seamless will shut down, and users must withdraw their assets by June 30. The protocol's UI will go offline on June 30, 2026, and team support will also cease.
The multi-chain trading protocol Novaswap will cease operations on June 30.
Polygon zkEVM Mainnet Beta will officially shut down on July 1, and users must complete asset withdrawals and cross-chain operations before this date.
Token Unlocking
Falcon Finance (FF) will unlock 102 million tokens on June 29, valued at approximately $6.88 million, accounting for 3.66% of the circulating supply.
Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on June 30, valued at approximately $3.24 million, accounting for 1.48% of the circulating supply.
Sui (SUI) will unlock 13.73 million tokens on July 1, valued at approximately $9.3 million, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating supply.
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.77 million tokens on July 1, valued at approximately $7.98 million, accounting for 6.15% of the circulating supply.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on July 2, valued at approximately $3.22 million, accounting for 0.48% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market dynamics for you through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; using the exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (dual screening by AI + experts) to identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and forecasting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investing itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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