Yesterday, global stock markets faced collective pressure, and the cryptocurrency market followed suit, entering a "flood release mode." However, after the U.S. stock markets opened significantly lower in the evening and gradually digested the negative news, the market did not experience further panic selling but instead began to enter a weak recovery phase.

As of today’s early trading, Bitcoin has basically completed a one-hour level correction and has moved to a key neckline resistance area. In contrast, Ethereum has completed only a 30-minute level correction, with overall strength clearly weaker than Bitcoin. From a structural perspective, the market is still within a bearish dominant framework, with the rebound being more of a technical correction after a sharp drop rather than a trend reversal.

On a macro level, the outlook remains bearish. The Federal Reserve has recently signaled a hawkish stance, with the median interest rate forecast in the dot plot being raised again, prompting the market to reprice future interest rate hike risks. Given the prolonged high interest rate environment that has exceeded expectations, risk assets are generally under pressure, and the cryptocurrency market is also finding it hard to stay immune.

From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin is still maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. In the short term, it is crucial to observe whether this round of correction can break through the key resistance area. If the rebound cannot effectively hold the neckline position, the market will likely return to its previous downward rhythm.

In addition, at the end of the month, about $10.6 billion worth of quarterly options are set to expire, which may further amplify market volatility. Meanwhile, a head-and-shoulders structure at the four-hour level has formed. Although there was a rebound after the price broke the neckline, the overall arrangement of bearish moving averages has not changed. The MACD has been diverging downward after a death cross, indicating that bearish momentum has not been fully released yet.

However, it is important to note that as prices continue to decline, the market is gradually approaching the oversold zone. There is a short-term technical rebound demand, but this rebound is more of a corrective nature rather than a trend reversal signal.

Overall:

The overall direction remains bearish;
Short-term view is corrective, not reversal;
If the key resistance is not surpassed, the rebound may end with further decline risk.
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