On June 24, according to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market as a whole is still in a bearish channel, with Bitcoin's price having fallen below the $63,000 mark, maintaining pressure on mainstream assets. More indicative is the structural differentiation: the previously relatively strong SocialFi sector has experienced a drop of over 5% in the last 24 hours, with typical high Beta assets showing signs of catching down, while within the same time window, the NFT sector recorded an逆势上涨, clearly amplifying the phenomenon of capital rotation among sub-sectors. In contrast to the price performance is the on-chain chip signal—CryptoQuant analyst DarkFost pointed out that Bitcoin long-term holders' selling pressure has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, meaning that during the price correction process, the most “patient” group of chips has become even more stable. This article will discuss along the main line of “weakening prices, warming chips,” whether it is digesting short-term risks or reallocating chips and risk premiums for the next market phase.
Bitcoin Falls Below $63,000: The Market Weakens Simultaneously
From a price perspective, the round of correction on June 24 is no longer a “local fluctuation.” Bitcoin has fallen continuously from its high, breaking below the $63,000 mark within the day, creating a clear technical boundary for market sentiment and overall market value: above this level can still be interpreted as consolidation within a bull market, but once broken, more capital begins to reassess risks from a “defensive” viewpoint. SoSoValue described this on the day as “the overall cryptocurrency market continues to decline,” which reflects not just Bitcoin’s weakness, but a general turning green among major indices and mainstream coins that are centered around Bitcoin in weight, replaced by a systemic contraction of capital preference instead of the previous structural differentiation, with the market’s expectations for the short-term pullback magnitude and duration being adjusted downward concurrently.
As the technical level is breached, price declines will inherently trigger some passive selling pressure: whether it’s stop-loss orders set by price ranges or short-term funds using the vicinity of $63,000 as a position management boundary, they tend to reduce positions when critical support is lost, thereby amplifying trading volume and declines in a short period. It is important to emphasize that at this stage, the appearance of “weakening trend” presented by the price must not conclude that it is merely a periodic correction of the prior gains or a substantive reversal of a longer-term rising structure based solely on a price level; it must also be combined with signals of on-chain chip stability, sector rotation direction, and whether risk preferences are experiencing continuous deterioration for a comprehensive judgment.
SocialFi Plummets: High-Risk Sectors Can't Hold Up
From the perspective of sector rotation, the first feedback comes from high-risk lanes. The previous day, the SocialFi sector remained relatively strong under the overall weakening environment, and short-term funds did not rush to exit, providing a certain hedge against the market downturn. However, according to SoSoValue data around June 24, the sector's overall drop has already exceeded 5% in the last 24 hours, constituting a typical sharp reversal against the previous resistance scenario: the facade of “stabilization” often gets concentrated in a sell-off when sentiment further deteriorates.
This trend is highly consistent with the attributes of the sector. SocialFi is typically seen as a high volatility, high Beta sub-sector. Under the macro backdrop where Bitcoin falls below $63,000 and the market continues to retreat, once the risk appetite contracts, positions with high leverage and high expectations are more likely to become priorities for reducing positions, which leads to amplified declines contributing to the market downturn. As a sentiment barometer, SocialFi did not timely adjust downward in the previous phase, but chose to focus on releasing declines in the past 24 hours, which can be understood as one of the signals indicating that short-term speculative sentiment has shifted from “hesitant wait-and-see” to “active contraction.” However, this type of data depicts more about capital's short-term positioning in the current window rather than a straightforward declaration of the long-term ceiling for the sector; the amplification of declines in high Beta sectors during the downturn, as during the upcycle where gains are amplified, stems from the same risk pricing logic.
NFT Rises Against the Trend: Short-Term Capital Rotation Signal
In contrast to the SocialFi sector's drop of over 5% in the last 24 hours, within the same time window, the NFT sector recorded a逆势上涨 on June 24 amid the overall market weakness and Bitcoin falling below $63,000; this price inversion between “the same market, different sectors” indicates that capital has not entirely withdrawn from the market but is rearranging its risk exposure within sectors. Particularly at a time when high Beta sectors are concentrating on releasing declines, the ability of NFTs to outperform the market constitutes a rare structural deviation and needs to be seen as a signal of changing capital attitudes rather than isolated price noise.
From the perspective of capital behavior, a more reasonable explanation is: some short-term funds, feeling the dual pressure from mainstream assets and high volatility themes, choose to withdraw from previously relatively strong sectors such as SocialFi and shift towards the NFT sector, which has already experienced a considerable drop and cooler short-term sentiment, aiming for a relative return that is “unrelated to the market.” Such rotation does not equate to a reevaluation of the long-term logic for the NFT sector but rather resembles a redistribution within the same risk budget—as the major market trend declines with Bitcoin and high-risk sectors under pressure, the strengthening of NFTs currently reflects more of a phase-specific relative strength rather than any directional improvement in the fundamentals.
On-Chain Warming: Long-Term Holding Selling Pressure at New Low
Unlike the back-and-forth movements of capital across sectors on the market, the structure of on-chain chips has shown a more “dull” change during this correction. CryptoQuant analyst DarkFost's data indicates that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, and this change has occurred after the price has already corrected and fallen below $63,000. In other words, when the market keeps “asking the price” downwards, that group of addresses historically inclined towards low-frequency trading and long holding periods did not follow the short-term panic to choose concentrated selling; instead, they showed a stronger willingness to hold.
From a historical perspective, if the long-term holding group's selling willingness weakens during the price correction phase, it is often seen as a signal leaning toward bullishness in the medium to long term: on the one hand, a reduction in active selling pressure means that marginal chips available for sale tighten, providing a more stable chip foundation for future market movements; on the other hand, this also constitutes a divergence from the spot price decline—although the market is weakening, the underlying chips are more stable, making it easier for the market's volatility structure to evolve into “pressure above, support below” range oscillation rather than accelerating further in a one-sided trend. However, this on-chain data essentially portrays medium to long-term chip behavior, providing limited guidance on the price paths around June 24 of a few days to weeks, as short-term trends are still predominantly dominated by emotional fluctuations and external incremental capital rhythm.
Short-Term Panic and Long-Term Chip Pulling
In summary of the June 24 market and on-chain data, the current structure can be characterized as: short-term pressure on prices, but long-term chips remain solid. On one side, SoSoValue shows Bitcoin falling below $63,000 and the market experiencing continuous corrections, with the high Beta sector SocialFi dropping over 5% in supplementary declines; on the other side, the NFT sector strengthens against the trend, while CryptoQuant statistics show that long-term holders' selling pressure has fallen to a new low since November 2024, indicating that more chips are settling in accounts that are insensitive to short-term fluctuations. The supplementary declines of SocialFi and the逆势上涨 of NFTs resemble short-term rotations of capital among high-risk sectors within a pressured environment rather than a reevaluation of their long-term fundamentals. For medium to long-term bulls, the significantly reduced selling pressure from the long-term holding group indeed provides a certain “safety cushion” below the price, but this does not mean that short-term volatility has ended; further reshuffling driven by sentiment could still occur. The more reasonable response now is to use the trend of on-chain chips to calibrate the medium to long-term direction and manage short-term risks with price and sentiment indicators to avoid linearly extrapolating one or two days of extreme fluctuations into an inevitable long-term trend.
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