1. Macroeconomics and Traditional Financial Markets

1. Highly Divergent U.S. Stock Market: Signals of Growth Slowdown Intertwined with Middle East Uncertainty

Last week, the U.S. stock market showed high divergence, with the S&P 500 retreating slightly by 0.22%, the Nasdaq increasing by 0.27%, and the Dow Jones rising by 0.39%. Macroeconomic data continued to weaken: New York state's Empire Manufacturing Index plummeted from 19.6 to 5.7, housing starts dropped sharply to 1.177 million units, and May retail sales increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating that the high interest rate environment is gradually suppressing overall demand.

The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 226,000, and the four-week moving average rising slightly to 223,250, providing some support for overall consumption. The structural divergence between resilient consumption and weakening real estate and manufacturing complicates the Federal Reserve's policy path, as the rate of economic cooling is insufficient to rapidly drive down inflation.

2. Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rate, Half of Officials Expect Rate Hikes This Year, Kashkari's Style Shift

The Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12:0 to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. Out of 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 anticipating more than one, only 1 expecting a rate cut, and 1 official not submitting an economic forecast summary. The Philadelphia Fed's "Price Paid" index rose from 47.9 to 53.2, further reinforcing the tightening stance.

New Chair Kashkari has adopted a different communication style from his predecessor, frequently mentioning "first principles", "alternative frameworks", and "scope of authority", becoming the only official in this dot plot to refuse to submit a future rate forecast, emphasizing that the core of the Fed's mission is achieving price stability. This FOMC statement was almost entirely rewritten, significantly shortened, and market uncertainty regarding the Fed's future communication and policy path has increased.

2. Crypto Market

1. Market Overview: BTC Weaker than ETH, Market Sentiment Remains Extremely Fearful

Last week, BTC fell by 3.7%, oscillating between $62,000 and $65,000; ETH dropped by 1.2%, remaining near $1,700. Due to BTC's significantly weaker performance compared to ETH, the BTC/ETH ratio declined by 1.6%. The total crypto market cap fell by 3.1%, with market cap excluding BTC and ETH down by 2.3%, and the altcoin market excluding the top ten tokens dropped by 3.0%, demonstrating a clear broad-based decline.

The top 30 cryptocurrencies averaged a decline of 2.5%, with only XLM recording a significant increase of 12.2%, propelled by Stellar's roadmap in RWA tokenization, payments, and enterprise settlements. Market sentiment remains in an "extreme fear" range, with the fear and greed index staying at 20. Additionally, one of Ethereum's largest MEV sandwich bots

jaredfromsubway.eth faced a reverse attack, resulting in a loss of about $7.5 million, rekindling market concern about on-chain security risks.

2. ETF Flows: BTC Net Outflow of $226.8 Million, Institutions Have Yet to Resume Sustained Buying

Last week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $226.8 million, while the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $10 million. Broken down by trading days, the BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of approximately $64.09 million on June 15, a small net inflow of about $10.06 million on June 16, and net outflows of about $82.16 million and $90.66 million on June 17 and 18, respectively, with the U.S. market closed on June 19 due to the Juneteenth holiday.

In terms of the ETH ETF, there were slight net inflows on June 15 and 16, but net outflows resumed from June 17 to 18, with the weekly total close to a small outflow overall. Overall, compared to the significant outflows of the previous week, the pressure has eased, but institutional funds have yet to return to sustained buying.

3. On-Chain Data: Total Stablecoin Supply Stabilizes, Structure Shows Divergence

Data from DeFiLlama shows that as of June 22, the total market cap of stablecoins is approximately $31.53 billion, an increase of about $287 million over 7 days, with a growth rate of about 0.09%. The market share of USDT is approximately 59.05%. USDT decreased slightly by about 0.12% over the past week, while USDC increased slightly by about 0.06%, with mainstream settlement funds remaining stable overall; USDS decreased by about 3.47% over the week, continuing the characteristic of ecological stablecoins being more prone to contraction in volatile environments.

USD1 and USDG grew by approximately 9.27% and 6.74%, respectively, reflecting that compliance-oriented stablecoins and channel-type distribution networks are still expanding; USDe remained nearly stable over the past week, with the expansion pace of yield-bearing stablecoins slowing but without significant redemptions; BUIDL and USYC maintained slight growth, indicating that institutional demand for on-chain cash management remains resilient. Overall, the stablecoin market has shifted from a total contraction the previous week to stabilization with structural divergence, but funds still tend to prefer high-certainty dollar instruments.

4. Industry Narrative: STRC Trading Below Par for Five Consecutive Weeks, Strategy's Financing Flywheel Under Pressure

STRC has traded below par for a fifth consecutive week, with the price once dropping to around $82, subsequently rebounding to about $88, but the weekly trading volume still reached $1.6 billion. The nominal dividend yield has risen to 11.5%, and market discussions are whether to further adjust it to 11.75% or 12%; notably, Strategy, which once claimed "never to sell Bitcoin," sold 32 BTC for the first time in late May this year, raising about $2.5 million to pay for preferred stock distributions.

Strategy currently faces three response paths: increasing STRC's dividend yield (each increase of 0.5% would incur about $52.45 million in annual additional dividend costs); selling Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which would weaken the core narrative; or issuing new STRC shares at a discount to par, which would long-term elevate the dividend burden structure. Last week, STRC accounted for 76.2% of the total trading volume of Bitcoin treasury preferred securities, down from 80% the previous week, with the second largest trading target being Strive's SATA, accounting for 15.8%.

This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment risks are high, please evaluate your risk tolerance fully before trading and ensure strict risk control.

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