So, the risk of going long on oil right now is really high. Just before I went to sleep yesterday, the negotiations between the US and Iran had hit a deadlock. Iran has once again blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and even the Iranian delegation directly walked out, not intending to continue negotiations. The market instantly pushed WTI oil prices to nearly $80, so those who chased WTI after seeing the news might be feeling the pinch.

Because less than two hours later, the Iranian delegation returned to the negotiating table. Trump did not apologize, and Israel did not cease fire. When I followed up on the news, the media said it was thanks to Vance's efforts, but I suspect it was the pressure from numerous third-party countries. Both sides also know very well that this war cannot continue.

So even though Iran still claims to be blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the WTI price quickly returned to below $75. Yes, Iran is still claiming to block the Strait of Hormuz, but the situation in the Strait shows that congestion is not severe. There are still vessels passing normally, although the passage is indeed a bit slower.

But I firmly believe that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is just a matter of time, and it won't take long. Oil prices are the best proof; like a prediction website, the market expresses its judgment directly through prices.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, the stability around $60,000 is still very high. There are no new negative factors in the short term after the US and Iran completely end their situation, so the market trend shouldn't be too bad. Currently, bitcoin:native mainly maintains a certain consistency with the US stock market, so as long as the US stock market continues to perform well, BTC shouldn't do too poorly.

Especially from recent data, it can be seen that long-term holders are continuing to break new highs, with already 75% of the circulating BTC in a long-term holding state. On one hand, more BTC is flowing to high-net-worth investors, and on the other hand, high-net-worth investors are not very interested in the short-term price changes.

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