Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

As the World Cup group stage has progressed, an increasingly counterintuitive phenomenon has become apparent — betting on strong teams does not necessarily guarantee profit; betting on upsets does not always pay off either, but if mindlessly betting on draws in every match, one might actually end up profiting significantly.

According to pre-match prediction data from Polymarket, if $1000 is bet on "draw" for every match, as of the 36 matches before this point, there have been 11 draws (as shown below). In other words, a total investment of $36,000 resulted in a payout of $73,214, yielding a net profit of $37,214 after deducting the principal, with an income rate exceeding 100%.

More strikingly, according to pre-match prediction data from Polymarket, if today's 4 matches continue with the "bet $1000 on a draw for each match" strategy (a total investment of $4,000), the results show that Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia and New Zealand 1-3 Egypt resulted in a total loss; however, Belgium 0-0 Iran and Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde resulted in wins, with a cumulative payout of approximately $8,700. This means that today, even with only 2 successful draws, the net profit is around $4,700.

After factoring in today's 4 matches, of the 40 group stage matches in the World Cup, there were 13 draws, with a total investment of $40,000 resulting in a cumulative payout of about $81,914. After deducting all investments, the net profit is approximately $41,914, yielding a return of nearly 105%.

A hit rate of 13/40 is not particularly high, but the key to the draw strategy has never been "hit more," but rather "hit more valuable." The lower the pre-match probability of a draw, the higher the multiplier upon hitting. For matches with a draw probability like Spain vs Cape Verde at 5.5%, Ecuador vs Curacao at 8%, and Qatar vs Switzerland at 13%, hitting just a few draws can turn an overall small loss into a significant profit.

Cape Verde Equalizing Against Spain Is the Most Typical "Liquidation Match" of the World Cup So Far

The group stage match between Spain and Cape Verde is not only a windfall for the draw strategy but also a nightmare for pre-match punters betting on favorites.

For this group stage match, Spain had a pre-match winning probability of as high as 92%. Polymarket data shows that user @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) bet on Spain winning against Cape Verde. Ultimately, the match ended in a 0-0 draw, resulting in a loss of $999,000 for this user.

It is worth mentioning that this user made their purchase at the moment when the price was 92 cents, meaning they put $1 million on the line for a profit of $85,000, which seemed a guaranteed win but ultimately led to a shocking loss due to the 7 incredible saves from Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper and their very strong defense.

0-0 and 1-1 Are Becoming the Main Themes of This World Cup

From the already achieved draws, the draws in this World Cup group stage are not occurring randomly, but rather concentrated around a few very typical scores.

The most common score is 1-1. Matches such as Canada vs Bosnia, Qatar vs Switzerland, Brazil vs Morocco, Belgium vs Egypt, Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay, Portugal vs Congo (DRC), Czech Republic vs South Africa all resulted in this score. The commonality of these matches is that neither side had no chances at all, nor were the weaker teams merely sitting back. More often, it is the strong teams failing to convert their advantages into victories, while the weaker teams capitalize on opportunities to respond. The matches appear to have back-and-forth action, yet none succeed in breaking down their opponents.

For traders, the value of a 1-1 draw lies in its stability. It is not the most exaggerated source of profit, but its high frequency forms the foundation of this "betting on draws for every match" strategy.

The real profit driver is 0-0.

The match between Spain and Cape Verde is the most typical example. Before the match, Spain was seen by the market as an absolute favorite, with a draw probability of only 5.5%. However, the match ended in a 0-0 draw, meaning that if $1,000 had been bet on the draw, the payout would have been approximately $18,182. Ecuador vs Curacao followed a similar logic, with a draw probability of only 8% and also ending in 0-0, achieving a payout of $12,500 for a $1,000 bet.

Therefore, the real advantage of the draw strategy comes not from hitting every match, but from the few low-probability draws when they occur, as the payout multipliers can be very exaggerated. Especially for matches like 0-0, the game often sees the favored teams continuously attacking, while the weaker teams' goalkeeper and defense continually clear the ball.

Group G Is Even More Outrageous, 3 Draws in 4 Matches

If the Spain vs Cape Verde match is a representative of low-probability draws, then Group G is more like a microcosm of "draw density" in this group stage.

In the first 4 matches, Group G has already seen 3 draws. In the first round, Belgium 1-1 Egypt, Iran 2-2 New Zealand; in the second round, Belgium 0-0 Iran. The only match that produced a winner was New Zealand vs Egypt, but this did not alter the fact that the overall pace of the group has been entirely slowed down by the draws.

Especially for Belgium, all matches in the group stage have ended in draws. For the team, this means that the pressure to qualify from the group remains; but for those who bet on Belgium to win, the outcomes of the two matches are the same — no losses, but positions reduced to zero.

This is also where draws are often underestimated in prediction markets. The market tends to favor betting on strong teams to win, as this seems more intuitive; but the true logic of the group stage is not that "strong teams must win," but rather that many teams can accept a point. Weaker teams do not want to lose, strong teams do not want to take early risks, and once a match enters a stalemate, the draw becomes a very realistic outcome.

With 3 draws in the first 4 matches of Group G, it indicates that the draw is not an incidental upset but part of the group stage's strategy. Particularly when the points are not significantly separated, every team begins to calculate — winning is certainly best, but not losing often becomes the more stable choice.

Conclusion

This World Cup, strong teams remain the main characters.

Spain will win, Brazil will win, and strong teams will certainly have matches where they dominate. However, if we focus purely on trading profits, so far the most lucrative scripts in the group stage have not been blowout victories from the powerhouses, but rather the recurring scores of 1-1, 0-0, and 2-2.

Those betting on strong teams are waiting for goals, while those betting on draws are waiting for the final whistle, and so far, the latter is laughing the loudest.

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