The market's bets on interest rate hikes soared from about 10% before the meeting to 38.5%. This indicates that although there was no rate hike in June, the Federal Reserve sent a hawkish signal, leading traders to significantly raise their expectations for action in July (as shown in the figure below).

If expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to heat up, how much do you think the already overcooked Middle East situation can still influence the market? The current focus is on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in July, September, and October. If the market generally bets on a rate hike, that will be the time to position short positions; it's still okay to trade on expectations before the announcement!

My thinking remains unchanged regarding high shorts:

For the Dragon Boat Festival, I issued Bitcoin shorts around 63900–64500, which are currently slightly in loss, and Ethereum shorts around 1738–1755, which are still near the opening price. Hold on! Wait for the market to give the final killer blow! When everyone is too scared to easily jump in and buy the dip, at that desperate moment, it will be our time to think differently and buy the bottom!

It’s not difficult to see that the expanded market cycle is merely a technical rebound in a continuation of the downward trend! The bullish arrangement of the moving averages above is obvious, with the current price around 64300 breaking through the middle band of the four smaller Bollinger Bands, and the upper band around 64900. The accompanying indicators do not hold much significance, as lagging indicators are of limited reference value; overbought remains overbought, and golden crosses remain golden crosses. The key is still to focus on a few specific resistance levels above:

Bitcoin: Look for resistance around 64800–65500–66400 above; target to watch for support below: 63600–62200–59666–58000.

Ethereum: Look for resistance around 1760–1780–1820 above; target to watch for support below: 1680–1640–1580–1510–1444.

Note that there may be deviations in the above points; Bitcoin ±100 points, Ethereum ±5 points. Given the extreme dependence on fundamentals for price fluctuations now, it is advised to participate with light positions, participate with light positions! Save enough powder for the next opportunity to buy the bottom!

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