The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned by the hot topics. The "Weekly Editorial Selection" column picks these valuable insights from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, leaving insights that inspire you.
Macroeconomic Situation
What trades are the markets betting on after the reopening of Hormuz?
The military conflict has basically transitioned from a military level to a negotiation level. The market is switching from "war impact" to "supply recovery."
After the reopening of the strait, the market is shorting oil risk premiums, going long on airlines, cruise lines, and the tourism chain, going long on Asian energy-importing countries, going long on bond durations, and shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizers, and the chemical chain are also being repriced.
Investment and Entrepreneurship
Ray Dalio: When AI giants dominate US stocks, I choose not to bet on direction but do one thing
Technological progress in itself does not mean that related stocks have the same attractiveness. Major technological cycles in history often experience excitement, congestion, volatility, and clearing.
When a few tech companies occupy an increasingly high weight in indices, investors need to be cautious about whether they have unconsciously held a concentrated exposure that is highly correlated and high risk. Instead of continuing to chase a few leading stocks, a more robust approach is to build a diversified portfolio made up of high-quality, low-correlation assets and adjust the volatility level according to one's risk tolerance.
Crypto 2029: Ultimate Prediction of the Four-Year Cycle in the Crypto Industry
Three types of tracks, perpetual contracts for private placement, stablecoins, and asset tokenization, although with logical products and market demand fully validated, are being severely restricted in growth by external policies outside the industry.
By 2029, what remains in the public view is the core product that the crypto industry has been building through rounds of speculative cycles—an asset trading market.
Data Decoding BTC Cycle: Three Bottom Signals Light Up, Q4 May Be a Key Turning Window?
When BTC stands above $120,000, everyone is willing to believe it will go higher; but when it drops back to around $60,000, on-chain valuations, cycle positions, ratios of long-term holders, and macro variables all start pointing to the bottom area, yet the market is most lacking in confidence.
The current area is closer to a phased layout window that requires patience, discipline, and confidence.
Written After SpaceX's Debut: Is a $2.1 Trillion Market Cap Still Worth Chasing?
SpaceX jumped above $150, with a market cap fixed at $2.1 trillion on its first day of listing. At this stage, SpaceX's revenue cannot support its huge valuation.
Starlink is currently the only profitable business for SpaceX. Space launches are the main selling point for SpaceX.
Apart from the mismatch between actual business and valuation, the high proportion of retail investors in IPOs may also be a reason for the suppression of SPCX's stock price. Musk has released 20-30% of SpaceX's IPO shares to retail investors; the larger the retail holding proportion, the greater the volatility. Retail investors can buy regardless of cost due to FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiments and may sell impulsively at the slightest fluctuation. Therefore, retail investors truly affect volatility, not the final increase.
For investors concerned about SpaceX, the following two time points are particularly important:
- About 15 trading days after the IPO (expected around July 6 - July 7), SpaceX is highly likely to be included in the NASDAQ, at which point top funds will buy this stock;
- SpaceX Q2 financial report release (early to mid-August).
Is Rising Risky? Systemic Risks Behind SpaceX's Valuation Surge
A gamma squeeze occurs when options market makers are forced to buy stocks to hedge, thus creating a feedback loop that further drives up the stock price. If SpaceX replicates this path and is further elevated due to its narrative strength, liquidity constraints, and Musk's personal influence, it could evolve from an overvalued stock into a systemic variable for the entire market.
The more dangerous aspect lies in indexation and passive investment. When a company's market capitalization is sufficiently large, it will be included in major indices, passively held by ETFs, pension funds, retirement accounts, sovereign funds, and institutional portfolios. At this point, a bubble is no longer just a risk for a few traders, but enters the long-term asset allocation of ordinary investors. The higher it rises, the more the market cannot bypass it; the more it cannot be bypassed, the more likely capital will continue to flow toward it.
This article discusses a structural paradox in modern capital markets: when the market mechanism itself can amplify narrative, leverage, and liquidity to the point of overshadowing fundamentals, can the so-called "price discovery" still hold?
For Those Still Fixated on Altcoins, Just Go for HOOD
Under multiple favorable factors, HOOD has recently risen.
For a long time, cryptocurrency-related income has been an important part of Robinhood's total revenue, and HOOD's stock price trend has shown a strong correlation with cryptocurrencies. However, recent signs indicate that Robinhood is breaking free from its dependency on cryptocurrency business, positively shedding this correlation. Its stock trading, prediction markets, pre-IPO, and new underwriting businesses still hold promise for supporting its performance growth.
If the crypto market returns to a bull market in the future, Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue will likely also explode, allowing HOOD to benefit from industry growth.
Missing the Coin Stock Wave, South Korean Crypto Exchanges Forced to "Speculate on Shitcoins"
As the crypto market weakens and South Korean crypto investors shift to stock trading, the performance of South Korean exchanges fell collectively in Q1 2026, hence they urgently need to take measures to save the downturn. However, unlike other overseas exchanges that can transform into "universal exchanges" by launching a large number of tokenized stocks to meet the needs of crypto traders, Korea classifies tokenized stocks as securities, thus prohibiting crypto exchanges from engaging in such transactions and also banning them from trading cryptocurrency futures, derivatives, or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Regulatory measures aimed at protecting investors in South Korea have instead pushed crypto exchanges into the market's most speculative corners. After all sources of income and new product lines related to derivatives, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets are banned, exchanges will tend to choose to list those more attention-grabbing and more speculative "shitcoin" tokens to increase platform trading volume.
Web3 & AI
Nearly $1 trillion in procurement commitments, over $800 billion in inactive leasing contracts, and hundreds of billions in supplier financing arrangements together constitute approximately $1.8 trillion in off-balance sheet exposure—these liabilities float outside balance sheets but genuinely lock in future cash outflows. The market has yet to fully price these risks.
Morgan Stanley warns that the leverage ratio of super-large cloud companies has skyrocketed from 0.9 times to 1.8 times within just two quarters, with capital expenditure growth persistently outpacing revenue and free cash flow growth, while the real impact of depreciation pressures has yet to come.
Meanwhile, private credit institutions represented by Apollo and Blackstone are shifting leverage to the supply chain level through SPVs (special purpose vehicles), forming a highly cyclical and opaque financing structure. If the AI commercialization process falls short of expectations, or enterprise clients massively turn to cheaper alternatives, the vulnerability of the entire financing chain will become concentratedly exposed.
The World Cup Has Just Started, AI Predictions Already Have Some Models Shine and Others Fail
Large models like Thousand Questions, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Copilot can not only answer "which team is more likely to win" but also provide score predictions, upset possibilities, red card risks, key player performances, and match trend analyses.
For prediction market participants, AI's pre-match simulations are becoming another layer of reference beyond odds, news, team data, and market sentiment.
Who Takes Your AI Monthly Fee? A Chart Breaks Down the Computing Power Supply Chain Behind $20
A breakdown of the $20 subscription cost for Claude shows how an AI monthly fee is divided among the model company, cloud computing power, GPUs, electricity, and supply chain.
AI subscriptions have ongoing reasoning costs, and cannot directly apply the high gross margin assumptions of traditional SaaS.
Related subjects: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA (NVDA), TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, data centers, and the power chain.
Prediction Markets
The First Stock Concept of Prediction Markets Has Emerged!
Kalshi has announced a partnership with the American online broker Robinhood, which will use Kalshi to provide prediction market trading services for its users, allowing users to bet on events related to politics, economics, and sports. However, recently, this relationship has undergone subtle changes. Robinhood is gradually realizing that what is truly scarce may not be the market itself but the user entry point it firmly controls. Robinhood holds an important resource—distribution capability.
After about six months of accelerated development, the Rothera product has gradually taken shape, and Robinhood has finally made that almost inevitable move—gradually shifting orders originally directed to Kalshi to its internal control system. Robinhood has intentionally chosen an excellent launch battlefield for Rothera—the World Cup.
If the theme of the prediction markets industry in the past few years was the competition between Polymarket and Kalshi, the theme in the coming years may turn into a channel battle.
Also recommended: "The World Cup Begins, Review the "Big Gains" and "Big Losses" in Prediction Markets".
CeFi & DeFi
IOSG: On SpaceX's Listing Day, the First Test of Three Perpetual Mechanisms
Without public spot prices, how can the market price something? This is the core challenge that the entire Pre-IPO perpetual category must solve.
In the case of SpaceX, trade.xyz captured the on-chain market (with approximately 96.5% of the transaction volume), not because the oracle is smarter, but because the near-zero funding cost made this trade almost zero-cost to hold, it launched alongside the IPO catalyst and connected arbitrage opportunities on a per-share basis.
However, while Pre-IPO perpetuities excel in handling prices, they still remain primitive in handling events. Company actions, especially a stock split following a conversion, currently have no pipelines on-chain: trade.xyz has not announced any rebase mechanism, while Ventuals has outsourced this task to a separate data provider, which has previously encountered issues (a single expired split data led to a 45% flash crash in its market). The bottleneck does not lie in price discovery, but in the tedious "corporate action" handling layer: traditional markets took a century to standardize it, but no one has yet rebuilt it on-chain. Whoever can reliably deliver it will fill the last gap between these markets and the ones they aim to replace.
STRC Severely Decoupled, What Risks Is the Market Pricing?
STRC has dropped to about $89, with a simple current yield of about 12.9% based on an annual dividend of $11.5.
The market divergence is not whether Strategy can immediately afford the dividend, but how to value BTC reserves, high-interest financing, on-chain leverage, and competitive comparable products.
Related subjects: STRC, MSTR/Strategy, SATA, BTC, Pendle, and related on-chain yield products.
STRC Decouples 11%, Can Strategy's Perpetual Engine Still Turn?
The market's pricing for STRC not only reflects investor attitudes toward a preferred stock but also reflects market confidence in the entire capital operation model of Strategy.
In Strategy's balance sheet expansion closed loop, STRC is not just an ordinary financing tool but the strongest engine in the current Strategy capital flywheel. Through the closed loop of "issuing STRC ➡️ raising fiat ➡️ buying BTC ➡️ enhancing company net assets ➡️ boosting STRC credibility," Strategy has successfully built a seemingly endlessly circulating capital flywheel. However, the key prerequisite for this flywheel to operate smoothly is that STRC must maintain around its $100 par value.
The failure of the dividend correction effect means the risk that the market is pricing has exceeded the yield of STRC itself. First, there are superficial technical factors. Some market participants believe that recent declines are mostly due to concentrated liquidation by arbitrage capital during deleveraging. Deeper concerns lie in the state of Strategy's liquidity reserves.
Annualized 15%-25%, Is BlackRock's Bitcoin Income ETF an Opportunity or a Trap?
BITA relies on BlackRock's spot Bitcoin fund IBIT, by selling covered call options to earn stable options premium income for investors, but at the cost of sacrificing part of Bitcoin's significant upside. This income-generating Bitcoin fund is specifically designed for investors and institutions pursuing stable cash flow, addressing the pain point of institutions being unable to hold zero-yield assets.
The fund's capital flow will provide the ultimate answer. If BITA and IBIT continue to absorb Bitcoin while Bitcoin stabilizes around the $65,000 range, it indicates that institutional real buy orders have sustainability; conversely, if the income-generating ETF only reallocates existing funds from the spot fund, the short "income trap" judgment will be validated.
Ethereum and Scalability
Sharplink CEO: A Million Ethereum Developers, Who Competes?
Ethereum's core advantage is not speed, but the aggregation of the largest and most deep talent pool; the real moat lies in the long-term ecosystem built by composability, standard-setting, and trustworthy neutrality; these builders are focusing on scalability and quantum resistance and continue to solidify Ethereum's position as the default operating system of the financial internet.
This Week's Hotspot Quick Recap
Policy and Macro Market
Iranian media released detailed terms of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, including the reopening of the Hormuz seafood market and the release of $24 billion of Iran's frozen funds;
The United States and Iran announced an immediate and permanent end to military actions on all fronts;
The US-Iran agreement was confirmed, leading to a surge in crypto and gold, while oil plummeted;
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected but remained overall hawkish, with significant changes to the policy statement;
Bipartisan US lawmakers jointly proposed pressure: to prohibit presidential pardons or sentence reductions for SBF;
Anthropic: suspended access for foreign citizens to Fable 5 and Mythos 5, and Amazon was accused of being the "behind-the-scenes driver" provoking regulatory intervention;
SpaceX acquired Cursor;
Liuliu Mei (06658.HK) saw its stock price surge sharply on its first day of listing due to its name sounding like "LLM" (large language model) (recap);
Opinions and Voices
Arthur Hayes: AI is draining the market, and Bitcoin is unlikely to reach 100K by the end of the year;
a16z crypto: The crypto industry has entered the Show Me era, with narratives shifting towards data validation;
Strive vice president: If Strategy cannot pay STRC dividends, Bitcoin may perish;
Institutions, Large Companies, and Leading Projects
BTTInferGrid is building a decentralized AI inference computing power network...
Attached is the series of Weekly Editorial Selection. See you next time~
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