Space X's listing is undoubtedly a major highlight in recent times. The company's stock price has performed remarkably in the days following its IPO, rising from $135 to over $200.

Many domestic and foreign content creators have stated: no matter how the company's future performance turns out, they will buy at least one share, "paying respects first" ------ honoring this company and its achievements that create miracles for humanity and push human boundaries.

Space X is one of the greatest technology companies in the last century.

Years from now, when future generations write the list of notable figures in the history of human space exploration, Musk should be listed alongside Gagarin, Tereshkova, and Armstrong as a hero.

However, enthusiasm always fades, and rationality will return. From an investment perspective, the question is how Space X's business model holds up, which is a topic that investors care more about.

Some well-known investors believe Space X is the new generation's East India Company, a pioneer in expanding the commercial frontiers of humanity.

In this regard, I actually agree more with a technology blogger's view:

Space X is not the East India Company; the two have distinctly different business models.

Before the establishment of the East India Company, Europe had a huge market demand for silk, tea, and porcelain from the East, but due to geographical barriers, this demand could not be met, leading to a significant supply-demand contradiction. The establishment of the East India Company effectively addressed this pressing need for Europe, resulting in remarkable trade revenues.

Currently, Space X's business is mainly focused on deploying communication networks in space, and this demand is rapidly growing, but it is not as urgent; regarding its envisioned future of deploying AI, energy, etc., in space, this need is not an urgent requirement on Earth right now either.

Furthermore, Space X currently has no other resources that it can bring back from space to Earth.

Thus, Space X's business model does not directly address an already existing urgent necessity like the East India Company did, but is more about focusing on the future needs that will arise for humanity, such as massive space power stations, huge space data centers, and large-scale space AI infrastructure.

This is also the general view of many overseas investment banks regarding Space X's business model.

Among various investment banks, Goldman Sachs has provided a rather optimistic estimate:

It predicts that by 2030, Space X's annual revenue (note: revenue, not net profit) will reach $474 billion.

Using this optimistic estimate, let's roughly calculate its value.

If we assume NVIDIA's net profit margin is 50%, then the annual revenue of $474 billion corresponds to a net profit of $240 billion. If we estimate a P/E of 20 times, then the valuation for 2030 is approximately $4.8 trillion.

Just recently, Duan Yongping also expressed his views on Space X on Xueqiu (essentially saying):

If in 5 to 10 years (2031-2036), Space X's annual revenue reaches $150 billion, then a valuation of $3 trillion is not too absurd.

Based on his wording habits in the Q&A, the annual revenue he refers to is likely the net profit, that is, an annual net profit of $150 billion. If we also calculate using a P/E of 20, the valuation corresponding to this net profit would be $3 trillion.

Therefore, Space X's possible valuation in 5 to 10 years could be between $3 trillion and $4.8 trillion.

Is this valuation reasonable?

We can analyze by working backward from profit to revenue.

Assuming the net profit margin is 50%, the annual revenue corresponding to a net profit of $150 billion would be $300 billion.

Thus, according to Duan Yongping and Goldman Sachs, Space X's estimated annual revenue in 5 to 10 years is likely around $300 billion to $474 billion.

Again, based on Goldman Sachs' estimate, the revenue from AI is expected to account for about 68% of Space X's total revenue at that time, which would be approximately $204 billion to $322 billion.

These AI revenues may come from those giants currently heavily investing in AI infrastructure or with significant demand for AI computing power.

According to estimates for AI, the expenditure on computing power demand in the U.S. in 2026 is about $810 billion to $910 billion. If that expenditure doubles in five years, then the annual expenditure would be $1.62 trillion to $1.82 trillion.

This means that if in five years Space X's independently developed space AI computing power can capture one-fifth to one-third of the U.S. market's demand for computing power, then the aforementioned valuation range isn't too far-fetched.

Five years isn't too long from now. How big Space X can grow by then and whether it can achieve commercial feats beyond technology remains to be seen.

We hope it succeeds.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。