Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)

In this round of the U.S. stock bull market, besides the influential "White Hair Stock God" Serenity, another independent research institution called Citrini has also gained much attention, consistently ranking first in the finance category on Substack with nearly 250,000 subscribers.

In February this year, the report titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" released by Citrini sparked a "sell-off of U.S. software stocks," exacerbating panic about rising unemployment in Silicon Valley; in April, the local report "Hormuz Strait Research Report," written by Citrini's analyst Analyst#3, drew strong reactions from the public, revealing the true nature of the conflict with firsthand experience that dispelled the layers of confusion. Recently, Citrini's semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately highlighted the importance of the copper foil industry in AI and the semiconductor sector, igniting a new wave of investment enthusiasm.

Behind this research institution is a founder without a formal finance background: James van Geelen, who holds dual degrees in Biology and Psychology from UCLA, has worked as an EMT and founded a medical company, unexpectedly diving into the investment circle and now being referred to as the "God of Investment Research." In this issue, Odaily Planet Daily will unveil James's interdisciplinary legend.

Citrini Founder: "Narrative Master" Under "Second-Order Thinking"

When it comes to Citrini, those in the crypto circle first noticed this research account perhaps due to a post he made before the listing of Cerebras (CBRS) in May this year, mentioning that "fund managers are conducting price discovery in advance on Trade.xyz (in the Hyperliquid ecosystem)." This tweet was later confirmed by Trade.xyz founder Shokun.

Citrini: The "Whistleblower" of Traditional Finance on Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz

It's no exaggeration to say that as a research account that once published the hot article "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," Citrini's influence on the traditional finance circle is evident.

Its strong affirmation of Hyperliquid ecosystem and Trade.xyz's pre-market pricing in U.S. stocks has also brought RWA platforms in the crypto market, pre-market contract platforms for U.S. stocks, and on-chain trading platforms for U.S. stocks into the limelight for many, thus propelling this year's "U.S. stock RWA asset boom" to some extent.

In a certain sense, Citrini serves as a weather vane, issuing "warning signals" to the traditional finance circle — using accurate information to warn the traditional financial market that previously inconspicuous crypto players are boldly targeting the "big cake" of traditional finance.

And behind Citrini is a founder who believes in "second-order thinking" and "long-termism" — James van Geelen.

Diverse Labels: Dual Degrees in Biology and Psychology, Medical Emergency Practitioner, "AI Panic Whistleblower"

33-year-old James van Geelen (hereinafter Geelen) probably would not have thought that a "hot post on AI discussions" could trigger a rapid evaporation of hundreds of billions in market value in the U.S. stock market; earlier, his career path had nothing to do with AI.

Public information shows that Geelen graduated from the prestigious UCLA, earning dual degrees in Biology and Psychology; he also worked as a medical technician and nurse in downtown Los Angeles. His background from a prestigious university and experience as a medical emergency practitioner shaped his character to pursue efficiency and excel in planning. As he puts it, "Without a plan, you will have a miserable life." Additionally, he considers himself a "genius musician," even though he has no notable works to speak of.

According to Geelen's original plan, he should have become a life-saving doctor, but due to twists of fate, he ventured into entrepreneurship: he first founded a healthcare company and sold it to a private equity fund, successfully breaking free from the "prestigious school - job - career manager" cycle; he then founded the current Citrini.

Additionally, it is worth mentioning that according to information he personally disclosed on the 2023 Odd Lots podcast, he co-founded one of Connecticut's first medical cannabis dispensaries. This demonstrates that he is far from the stereotypical "ordinary doctor" who follows the established path.

In 2018, after securing some starting capital, Geelen began his personal investment career under the name Citrinitas Capital, capturing early opportunities in AI (such as Nvidia) and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (such as Ozempic/Wegovy).

In 2023, Geelen officially founded Citrini Research, focusing on "investment analysis through a cross-asset, multi-dimensional approach," offering in-depth reports on thematic stock investments and global macro trading. It quickly grew into a top creator in the financial sector on the Substack platform. (Odaily Planet Daily note: there are both individual and institutional subscription models)

On May 31, 2023, the model investment portfolio Citrindex, built based on personal research, was officially established, with an annual subscription fee of $1,250. Statistics show that the portfolio has accumulated returns of over 200%, with monthly gains that often outperformed the S&P 500.

In March 2024, he boldly predicted that Trump would win the election; in July 2025, regarding the issue surrounding former Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's departure, he publicly advised over 50,000 subscribers to "buy 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds and short 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds" to hedge against policy risks.

In December 2025, according to PitchBook information, Citrini completed approximately $5.05 million in seed financing, with only about 10 employees, and the company remains privately held.

Then, in February of this year, he co-wrote the impactful report "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" with Alap Shah, who comes from a traditional finance background. Despite repeatedly emphasizing that the report is only a "thought experiment," a hypothetical scenario rather than a predictive analysis, the phenomena mentioned within, such as "mass unemployment of white-collar workers, declining consumer spending, and economic contraction (Ghost GDP)," still triggered panic and concern in the capital market, leading to sharp declines in delivery, payment, and software stocks. Among them, IBM's stock price set a record for the largest single-day drop since 2025 on February 23; American Express and Blackstone both fell more than 8%, and the entire software stock sector dropped nearly 5%, with companies like DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One, and Apollo Global Management Inc. seeing their stock prices drop by 3% at one point, causing multiple U.S. stock sectors to be swept into the sell-off, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 800 points at one point. Alap Shah subsequently publicly stated his investment stance as "shorting and going long," meaning shorting those companies he believed would be disrupted by AI while holding semiconductor tech stocks that benefit from AI.

It's no exaggeration to say that Citrini's report caused the evaporation of hundreds of billions in the U.S. stock market, directly leading to a "bloodbath," with billions of market value evaporating overnight, prompting coverage from Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and other international media outlets.

On April 6 of this year, the Citrini team’s "Analyst #3" visited the critical juncture in the U.S.-Iran conflict — the Strait of Hormuz, conducting research that unveiled many lesser-known observations from the front lines, revealing Iran's specific operational model for the "toll station" established in the strait, and offering a series of unconventional conclusions, such as: No matter how the situation develops, the shipping volume in the strait will gradually increase; Iran does not wish to close the Strait of Hormuz. Firstly, the shipping volume in the strait will continue to rise. Secondly, the diplomatic "toll station" surprisingly indicates that the order of passage in the strait is actually quite regulated. Thirdly, the escalating contradictions suggest that even if ground actions occur, the shipping volume in the strait may keep increasing. Fourthly, it is a restructuring of the situation rather than a simple win-or-lose confrontation. This conflict is not merely "a confrontation between both sides," but a multi-party game. The geographical disputes in major power games are also key subjects within Citrini's research "range."

When asked why he named the company "citrinitas," Geelen replied: "The inspiration for this name comes from financial mogul Soros's 'Financial Alchemy.' This is actually a stage in alchemy, yet what most people don't know is that during this transitional phase, lead begins to transform into gold, but hasn't completely turned into gold yet." This is also his favorite moment to "make a difference" — to see the "birth of gold" before others have noticed the changes in lead.

Investment Style: Second-Order Thinking, Narrative-Driven, Reverse Scenario

As for Citrini's investment style, benefiting from its cross-disciplinary experience and diverse labels, it strongly advocates for "second-order thinking."

As Geelen himself said: "Most investors only focus on the ball itself, but I look more at where the ball will bounce next."

From Citrini's past content and public information, this research institution focuses on long-term "super trends," such as AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics, and modern warfare, among others. In addition, the institution strives to provide executable "investment references" and tactical macro trading ideas, leaning towards long-term structural changes instead of short-term trading. On its Substack homepage, we can see its emphasis on practice, stating: "You (the reader) will no longer need to ask 'what is trading.'

Moreover, Citrini often employs "scenario assumptions" to help readers understand second-/third-order effects. Geelen once mentioned: "Don't always think about what you think will happen. Instead, consider what will inevitably happen. How will the market's reaction change the reality? What secondary effects will arise? What obstacles exist that might sustain a certain trend? Where will the funds flow to overcome these obstacles?" Previously, he boldly bought overnight funding rate call options during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, easily reaping nearly 50 times returns; in December last year, before the U.S. launched military operations in Venezuela, he had already shared views on investment opportunities in Venezuelan sovereign bonds.

This year, Citrini has consecutively brought in several independent analysts, including macro analyst Nick Reece, Korean semiconductor industry analyst @jukan05, and AI chip industry analyst @zephyr_z9, which have to some extent filled gaps in the details of industry specifics, technology processes, and changes in industry direction.Currently, this research institution still maintains a production model driven by its founder + an anonymous elite team collaboration.

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