1. Macro Background: Two Forces are Offsetting

In the past two weeks, two signals with opposite directions have emerged in the global macro landscape.

On June 15, the United States and Iran officially confirmed they had reached a ceasefire memorandum (the "Islamabad Memorandum"), with Brent crude oil dropping from a peak of around $120 during the conflict to below $84, indicating a reduction in the geopolitical premium on risk assets. Bitcoin rebounded over 11% from its June low, as the market had already priced in this expectation.

However, the Federal Reserve subsequently provided another signal. The first interest rate meeting chaired by Waller maintained interest rates unchanged, with the benchmark interest rate range remaining at 3.5% to 3.75%. However, the dot plot indicated that the median forecast among the 18 committee members is a rate of 3.8% by the end of 2026, which is an upward adjustment from March, and 9 members expect at least one rate hike within the year. Notably, Waller himself chose not to submit a dot plot forecast—this rare practice is itself a signal that indicates he reserves greater uncertainty about the future path, rather than simply a dovish or hawkish qualification. The market reacted somewhat negatively: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury jumped 16 basis points to 4.21%, and the dollar index recorded its largest single-day increase in nearly a year.

These two forces act in opposite directions, and the combined effect remains unclear. For high-growth, high-volatility digital asset targets, this means that pricing noise in the short term will be higher than before.

2. Market Structure Event: Does the Unlocking Bring Risk or Opportunity?

On June 17, HashKey Holdings (03887.HK) completed six months since its listing, and the lock-up period for some early investors' shares expired.

Unlocking is typically interpreted as a negative signal for market sentiment, but this judgment needs to be viewed in layers.

Hong Kong's newly listed stocks generally have small circulating shares in the early stage. Since HashKey's listing, insufficient liquidity depth has been a substantial barrier for institutional investors in building positions—there is a mismatch between position size and the acceptable bid-ask spread. If the unlocked shares can be effectively released, and trading activity and spread depth improve simultaneously, it would actually open up operational space for long-term funds that previously could not enter.

This logic is not without precedent. In the Hong Kong stock market, some high-growth targets have experienced short-term adjustments after unlocking, followed by institutional investors stepping in to complete the shift in shareholding structure—from early arbitrage positions to long-term allocations. Whether this transition occurs depends on two conditions: whether the fundamentals continue to meet expectations and whether the management has the ability to stabilize market expectations.

3. The Meaning of the Buyback Signal on June 11

On June 11, the HashKey board announced it would utilize no more than HKD 100 million in its own funds (explicitly excluding IPO fundraising) to buy back shares on the open market. Following the announcement, the stock price temporarily rose more than 8%.

The scale of the buyback itself does not constitute a decisive force relative to the total market value, but the source of the funds is noteworthy. Using its own cash rather than raised funds for buybacks indicates that management has made an active judgment about the current valuation level within the framework of normal cash flow. This is fundamentally different from "stabilizing with shareholder money," and the signal it conveys is denser.

Of course, the buyback cannot completely offset the supply pressure brought by the unlocking; it is more of a price anchoring tool than a hedging tool. Its effectiveness still depends on the market's independent judgment of the fundamentals.

4. Fundamental Level: Three Structural Developments Worth Tracking

Setting aside the short-term market structure discussion, several developments at the business level for HashKey in the past few weeks are worth separate evaluation.

Joining the Monetary Authority's Tokenized Bond Expert Group. In early June, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the establishment of a tokenized bond expert group, with HashKey joining 21 other institutions including HSBC, Bank of China, and JPMorgan Chase. This change in identity, from a compliant trading platform to a participant in RWA industry standards formulation, holds significance beyond reputation—standard-setting participants often have a sustained first-mover advantage after the channels are opened, forming a competitive barrier that is not reflected in current financial statements.

Middle East-Africa Stablecoin Payment Corridor. On June 4, HashKey MENA, authorized by Dubai VARA, announced a collaboration with Aptos and the Pan-African payment platform Daya to establish a compliant stablecoin cross-border payment corridor, initially focusing on fiat currency in and out of African local currencies. The project is still in the pilot phase, and the pace of commercialization is not yet clear. The potential impact of trade recovery in the Middle East following the reopening of Hormuz is a variable that has not been fully priced in.

Leading SignalPlus, Entering the Derivative Infrastructure. In May, HashKey Capital led an investment in the crypto derivatives platform SignalPlus with $40 million, with the listed company contributing $20 million. The institutional demand for crypto options and structured products is rapidly expanding, and this investment aims to complete the product chain from spot trading, custody to derivative tools. Whether a true ecosystem synergy can form remains to be verified by subsequent data.

5. Trading Conclusion: The Divergence of Short-Term Volatility and Long-Term Narrative

Based on the above analysis, the variables currently affecting HashKey's pricing can be divided into two ends.

Positive side: Recovery of systemic risk appetite due to the decline in geopolitical risk premiums; potential attraction of institutional allocation capital due to liquidity improvement after unlocking; buyback as a proactive statement by management regarding valuation levels; and the medium to long-term competitive barriers brought by participation in RWA standard-setting.

Risk side: The expectation of interest rate hikes heating up after Waller's debut, the substantial postponement of the rate cut timetable, suppressing valuation multiples for high-growth targets; uncertainty surrounding the actual reduction rhythm of early investors after unlocking; and the unclear timeline for the commercialization of new businesses.

The company's long-term pricing anchor depends on whether the scarcity of compliance licenses can continue to translate into actual growth in trading scale, as well as whether new businesses can complete commercialization within a foreseeable timeframe. At a node where macro and micro variables switch in sync, short-term price signal noise is significant—this is both a risk and a characteristic window that investors willing to make medium to long-term judgments typically observe closely.