Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina）

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010）

The World Cup has officially started, and the prediction market is welcoming an opportunity for exponential growth in trading volume.

According to the report from asset management giant Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to bring up to $10 billion in consumer trading volume for sports betting and prediction markets, as well as over $3 billion in incremental funds. Prior to this, various prediction markets and exchanges also launched incentive activities to attract attention and trading volume. With the kickoff of the group stage, surprises such as upsets, weaker teams holding strong, and dark horses emerging have continued to unfold, giving players in the prediction market their own "get-rich moments" and "massive losses." (Recommended reading “The World Cup Prediction Battle Begins, How Do Various Exchanges Compete for This Wave of Event Traffic?”, “The Second Venue of the World Cup, in the Prediction Market”.)

Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that in sports events prediction markets, various upsets are likely to occur, so please follow cautiously.

World Cup Profitable Account: 4 Wins, New Account Profit of Nearly $10 Million

First, let's look at the profit leaderboard, where new wallets have made nearly ten million dollars in profit right from the start, leaving people to wonder if there is any insider information while also marveling: “The ball is round; anything can happen on the World Cup stage.”

Player One: 4 Wins, Daily Profit of $9.24 Million

Yesterday, a savvy bettor (@mintblade) made $9.24 million in profit in one day by predicting the World Cup matches, winning all 4 of their predictions with a win rate of 100%. In the match between Iran and New Zealand, this participant invested $7.03 million predicting "Iran will not win" and made $7.34 million from that single prediction. Importantly, this user ranks first on the weekly and monthly profit leaderboard on Polymarket.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@mintblade

Player Two: First Bet Profiting $9.06 Million, Spain's Upset Makes the Biggest Winner

In the early morning of the 16th, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in an unexpected draw. A new wallet (@Fishalive) spent $4.22 million on Polymarket predicting "Spain will not win" and "Cape Verde wins with a -2.5 spread," ultimately increasing $4.22 million to $13.28 million, making a profit of $9.06 million.

It's worth mentioning that they bought about 4.7 million shares of "Spain will not win" at an average price of 9 cents, and after the match ended, settled at 100 cents, earning approximately $4.31 million on that single transaction, with a return rate of over 1000%. This user is ranked second on the weekly and monthly profit leaderboard on Polymarket with a profit of $9.06 million.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@fishalive

Player Three: 2 Transactions, Profit of $5.2 Million

On the 15th, Polymarket user @LEEEROYJENKINS invested a total of $4.73 million, predicting "Turkey will not win" and "Australia has a 1.5 spread," ultimately both transactions were successful, making a profit of $5.2 million. In one of the transactions, the user achieved a profit rate of 128%.

Notably, although their highest single profit reached $4.8 million, their overall trading still had a loss of nearly $2.58 million.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/0x99aea8f9a64d0142b6b66a4b9d02a2211d45386f

Player Four: 3rd on the Polymarket Profit List, Profited Over $7.85 Million in the Past Week

Polymarket user @endlessFate profited $4.7 million in the past week. Previously, they spent $2.48 million on the match between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, predicting "a draw," "Uruguay will not win," and "Saudi Arabia has a 1.5 spread," eventually earning $5.67 million in profit; in the "Australia vs Turkey" match, they predicted "Australia has a 1.5 spread."

In the currently ongoing match of "Colombia vs Uzbekistan," they invested nearly $7.5 million predicting "Colombia will win," currently profiting over $2.05 million. Currently, they hold the 3rd place on the Polymarket weekly profit leaderboard with over $7.85 million in profit. It's also worth mentioning that this user has been participating in predictions on Polymarket since April of this year and currently has an overall profit of over $6 million after previously incurring multiple losses.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@endlessfate

Current predictions for "Colombia vs Uzbekistan"

Account profit and loss performance in the past week

For more weekly profit accounts, details can be found in the official leaderboard: https://polymarket.com/zh/leaderboard/overall/weekly/profit.

World Cup Losing Accounts: Unexpected Loss of $1 Million, Bet on Argentina's Unvictorious Loss Exceeds $1.8 Million

In the prediction market, where there are winners, there are naturally losers, and the opposing side always exists, just in a different identity and form.

Spain VS Cape Verde: 0:0 Draw Results in Single Account Loss of $1 Million

Polymarket data shows that account @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) purchased a win for Spain in the World Cup group match against Cape Verde, but the match ended with a 0:0 draw, resulting in a loss of $999,000 for this user.

It’s worth mentioning that this user bought in at 92 cents, betting $1 million to earn a profit of $85,000, which seemed like a guaranteed win. Ultimately, the loss was due to Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper's amazing seven saves and their extremely strong defense.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@betoor619?tab=activity

Lost a watermelon, didn't even pick up a sesame

Messi's Hat Trick, Argentina Defeats Algeria, Single Loss Exceeds $1.8 Million

On the 17th, before the World Cup match between Argentina and Algeria, prediction market whale weatherman12 invested $1.81 million predicting "Argentina will not win and Algeria +1.5." If Argentina were to draw or lose, both bets would profit $2.65 million.

However, Argentina successfully defeated Algeria with three goals from Messi's hat trick, ending the match with a score of "3:0." Ultimately, the user's entire investment was lost.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@weatherman12

Odaily Planet Daily will continue to pay attention to predictions related to the World Cup events on the prediction market platform. Welcome to join the Odaily Prophet Channel.

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