Academician of the Cryptocurrency Circle: The downward trend of Bitcoin on the daily chart has not changed as of June 17, 4-hour box trading strategy? Latest market analysis and trading suggestions

Bitcoin's current price is 65600. From a cyclical perspective, BTC is currently in a weak corrective consolidation phase after a decline. The daily chart's downward structure has not been repaired, and the 4-hour box trading is converging, with volatility continuing to compress, making it difficult to establish a one-sided trend in the short term. Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts fall into the misconception of treating oversold rebounds as reversal signals, blindly increasing positions to bet on significant rises, while neglecting the pressure from moving averages and Fibonacci resistance zones. The core idea in a consolidation market is to operate within a range, laying out positions only at the upper and lower bounds of the box, and minimizing trades in the middle section to avoid futile transactions that consume both capital and mindset.

The daily candlestick chart has entered a narrow consolidation grinding phase. The moving average system is arranged downward, with the first major resistance at 73445, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downwave, making it difficult to break through in a single attempt in the short term. The MACD's downward momentum has slightly weakened but has not reversed; the Bollinger Bands are continuing to close down, with the middle band at 74911 acting as strong resistance, and the lower band at 57212 providing long-term support. On the daily structure, the low point of 59080 has completed a rebound from a bottom test, but the rebound strength is weak and has failed to break above short-term moving averages, meaning the larger downward trend has not changed, and the consolidation recovery is merely a rest on the way down.

The 4-hour fast line is extremely balanced in the struggle between bulls and bears. 66484 is the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level and also the area of concentrated short-term moving average pressure, which the coin price has attempted to test multiple times without establishing a firm standing. The MACD's short-term downward momentum is depleted, but there are no signals for a substantial upward movement. The Bollinger Bands are closing simultaneously, with the upper band at 67412 and the lower band at 63398, completely locking the short-term consolidation range. The 4-hour chart has seen a recovery rebound from the low point of 59080; however, the height of the rebound is gradually decreasing, with the peaks continuously moving down, indicating a weak rebound pattern, and the upward movement lacks the impetus of incremental funds, strictly limiting the rebound space.

Short-term strategy reference: Follow the major cycle trend, with small stop losses and quick entries and exits.

For a move upward from 65000 to 64500, stop loss at 64000, target looking at 66500 to 67500.

For a move downward from 67000 to 67500, stop loss at 68000, target looking at 66000 to 65500.

The specific operations should be based on real-time data from the market. For more information, feel free to consult the author; there may be delays in article publication, and suggestions are for reference only at your own risk.

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