Yesterday at this time, I was still lamenting Israel's meddling, still lamenting that what Trump said about signing the agreement on Sunday would not come true. I really believed Iran when they said they would not sign on Sunday, but in the end, Trump was right this time. Although looking at the terms published by Iran, it seems the U.S. is actually quite passive and it's also entangled with war reparations, from Trump's attitude, it seems that he did not acknowledge that the agreement announced by Iran is final.

However, the problem is not too big now. Trump's intention is to announce all the terms after the signing on Friday. We will see then. Actually, for the vast majority of investors, the content of the agreement is not important, as long as this agreement can fully open the Strait of Hormuz. I think Trump also understands this reasoning very well; only with the Strait of Hormuz open can the U.S. quickly emerge from high inflation.

After all, there are less than five months until the midterm elections. Currently, it is still very difficult for the Republican Party to control both houses, and Trump's approval rating is continuously declining. Therefore, for Trump, ending the war between the U.S. and Iran as soon as possible would allow him to free up time to find ways to stimulate the market. So, regardless of the circumstances, unless the peace treaty cannot be signed normally on Friday, the matter between the U.S. and Iran is basically over.

This is good news for the risk market. By today, the S&P and Nasdaq futures have already returned to new highs. It is estimated that both indices can re-break new highs within the week. Affected by this, the probability of Bitcoin returning to $70,000 is still quite high. Of course, the focus will also be on the Federal Reserve's meeting in the early hours of Thursday. This meeting has too many key points; on one hand, we need to see Waller's attitude, and on the other hand, we need to look at the dot plot.

For the time being, I am not worried about the price of bitcoin:native. Unfortunately, this time around $60,000, there has been trading in oil, while Bitcoin is only involved in dual currency trading. It seems that the probability of being able to buy in is quite low, which is rather annoying.

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