Recently, I gathered a coincidental truth: the essence of finance is a performative means for capital to carry out its harvesting!

Have you ever felt this way:

While clearly watching the candlestick chart, you feel that there is an invisible hand controlling the market? It’s as if the timing is calculated, every time the market panics to the point where you want to cut losses, it just happens to be the bottom? Every time you finally can’t help but rush in to chase the rise, it just happens to be the peak?
You’ve cursed yourself as chives, cursed the whales, cursed that this market is unreasonable.

But today, I want to talk to you about a deeper truth—this market is not unreasonable. It is too reasonable.
Its reasoning is written in a script called "Bitcoin Halving." And you, I, and even those well-known institutions, exchanges, and top players are just actors in this script.

1. A well-written calendar: The precise rhythm of the halving cycle

First, let’s look at a set of undeniable facts: Bitcoin halves every four years. The block reward is cut in half. And each time, the market rhythm is almost identical: last October, a pinned article discussed the Bitcoin halving cycle, clearly stating that 126,200 was the top for this cycle, and now it has been validated!

After the halving in November 2012, the peak was reached in November 2013, a 600-fold increase. Then it plummeted, hitting the bottom in January 2015. After the halving in July 2016, the peak was in December 2017, a 133-fold increase. Then it plummeted, hitting the bottom in December 2018. After the halving in May 2020, the peak was in November 2021, a 21-fold increase. Then it plummeted, hitting the bottom in November 2022. (Those who do not believe in cycles are still outside the script)

Have you noticed?

The peak occurs 12-18 months after halving, and the bottom occurs 25-30 months after halving. This is not some mysterious mysticism. This is a calendar that has been repeatedly validated. Three times, one time is coincidence, two times is chance, three times, you tell me, what is this? It is a pattern.
And it is a pattern that becomes more precise each time.

2. The People in the Script: Institutions and Big Players believe this cycle more than you do

Some say this time is different, institutions have entered, and the cycle will change. But have you considered a more terrifying possibility—that institutions are not here to break the cycle but to utilize the cycle to complete their harvesting tasks?

Let’s review what happened in the last cycle:
In November 2022, Bitcoin fell to $15,400.
What happened that month? FTX collapsed. The second-largest exchange in the world went to zero overnight. SBF was arrested, and tens of billions evaporated. The panic in the entire market reached its peak. Did you cut losses? You might have already given up your chips under the pressure.

But please take a look at the calendar: November 2022 happens to be the 30th month after the halving in May 2020.
The "bear market bottom time window" of the halving cycle is just there. You say, was FTX's collapse a coincidence, or was it arranged? (Creating the panic of a zero, forcing you to hand over your bloody chips at the bottom—some might ask, why detonate it at the bottom? If not at the bottom, would it explode when prices hit 100,000? Detonating it at the bottom minimizes the damage while completing the big reshuffle.)

In March 2023, the market tested the bottom again.
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, Signature Bank was shut down, and USDC de-pegged. These just happened to be the traditional banking interfaces that the crypto world relied on the most. Panic swept the market again. Did you fire your last bullet? Were you scared?

But look at the calendar again: In March 2023, it was the 35th month post-halving. Historically, this position is the last fear-inducing washout. You say, is the bank collapse at that time a coincidence, or a plot necessity?

In April 2024, Bitcoin will halve.
As a result, a month before the halving, in March 2024, Bitcoin surpassed the previous cycle's all-time high of $69,000. This is the first time in history. Breaking the previous high before the halving. Did you think this time it’s “different”? Have you considered that this is actually a changed script, but the director hasn’t changed.

Institutions are eagerly pushing up the price before the halving for what purpose? To make the world pay attention to the "halving rally." To get everyone to rush in. To make FOMO (fear of missing out) the hottest sentiment in 2024.

And then? In October 2025, Bitcoin surged to around $126,200. Do you remember what happened during that time?

Let me help you recall:
A certain exchange suddenly had its management shaken up, with several executives taken for investigation. The wallet from Mt. Gox, which had been dormant for ten years, transferred a large amount of Bitcoin again. The entire market was shouting, “This time it’s different, the super cycle is coming, looking at 300,000.” (I was desperately warning everyone that we had already peaked, but everyone believed the so-called big players who said: This time it’s different, the super cycle is here, and we should keep going.) Is it possible that they are all unloading, creating some smokescreens to confuse everyone? The market reacted too violently; to prevent everybody from losing faith, are they using their influence to propagate the super cycle? To carry out a justified harvesting?

Then, it crashed. Look at the calendar: October 2025 is exactly the 18th month after the halving in April 2024. The "bull market top time window" of the halving cycle, flawless.

Do you still think those news pieces appeared by coincidence?
Those so-called big players, being bearish at the bottom and overly bullish at the top, the exchanges crashing, heavy-handed regulation, or even conflicts between nations—they are like props in a precisely controlled play, appearing just at the needed positions in the cycle, these are worth our deep reflection, this is the essence of finance!

3. You've seen through the truth, but can the truth help you make money?
I know what you’re thinking now. If you've seen through everything, you might feel angry: “So we retail investors have been designed from the start?” I was angry too, but later I understood. This cycle script was not written specifically to harm you. It is also the only script that can help you turn your fortunes around.

Why? Because institutions and whales can create volatility, create news, create panic and greed. But they cannot change the fact of Bitcoin halving. They cannot alter the code that halves the block reward every four years. They cannot change human greed and fear. The cycle is the timing. Events are the geographical advantages. Human nature is the people involved. They can weave a grand play using these three elements, but they cannot destroy the cycle itself.

If you know when the next show starts, you can find a seat in advance. Instead of rushing into the theater when most of the audience is leaving.

4. Now, which station are you at in the cycle?
Friend, the current date is June 2026. If the halving occurs in April 2024, according to historical patterns: Bull market top window: May-October 2025 (already realized) Bear market bottom window: May-October 2026 (we are standing here)
You are experiencing: The 26th to 28th month after halving. Historically, the most desperate bottom area. All the news making you afraid in the market—a certain exchange being fined, a certain project collapsing, a certain big player being arrested—do they have any substantial differences from the FTX of 2022 or the bank collapses of 2023?

No. They are all props in the same play; the props have changed, but the script hasn’t. In November 2022, you looked at Bitcoin at 15,400 and thought, “It might drop more, let’s wait.” Then it went up. In October 2025, you looked at Bitcoin at 126,200 and thought, “It might rise more, let’s see.” Then it went down. (Some are enticing with the super cycle coming)

Now, in June 2026, what are you thinking? Is it “Let’s wait, it might drop”? It might retrace slightly, reaching nearby strong support at 4.5 or 4.3, so I have also been emphasizing that all short positions should participate lightly, focus on short-term trades, and truly what we need to do is wait for another extreme bearish news event or release a panic-inducing message, then we can bold start picking up those bloody chips to escape the fate of being chives, to achieve a turnaround, rather than blindly following suit with the crowd. In the financial world, we need to develop the ability to think in the opposite direction!

5. I don’t want to pump you full of clichés; I just want to ask you three questions
The first question:
If you believe this market is manipulated by an invisible hand, then why doesn’t this hand push you away directly at the bottom and pull you in at the top? In truth, they are doing just that. The fear you feel now still needs a more extreme panic event, letting everyone become utterly hopeless and helplessly dump their bloody chips, and that is when the real reversal begins!

The second question:
If the halving cycle has failed, then why has every top and bottom time been accurate to the month for four consecutive times? Calculate the probability of this mathematically; you figure it out.

The third question:
If now is indeed the bottom area (whether it's 50,000 or 40,000 specifically), with your hard-earned capital, do you choose to cut losses here, or do you choose to endure for another six months?

6. Turning over a new leaf isn’t about luck
I am writing this article not to tell you when and at what price Bitcoin will drop. I am telling you: dawn is approaching. I know you’re tired. I know you’re doubtful. To be honest, when I analyzed last October that 126,000 was the top, I also doubted my judgment. I know you might have lost a lot of money, seen too many scammers, and heard enough slogans.

But today, please remember one thing: you are not chives. You are just the person who temporarily hasn’t gotten the script. Now the script is in your hands. History won’t repeat perfectly, but it will rhyme similarly. The halving cycle’s rhyme has already been emphatically observed four times. The fifth time, it probably won’t be absent.

What you need to do now is not to predict specific price points, but to think clearly: when the bottom truly arrives, do you have the courage to pick up those bloody chips according to the plan you had written long ago?

I choose to believe in the cycle. What about you? Finally, I want to hear your story~
During that bear market bottom in 2022, what were you doing? Did you cut losses or did you buy the dip? Or, at the peak of the bull market in 2025, did you run away? Or did you rush in?

Come and chat in the comment section. There is no mockery here, just people who have experienced the same war. Waiting for you.

Note that this article is just my sudden inspiration to write a counter-thinking piece. The extreme events and information mentioned in the article come from the market’s previously disclosed information; I just rearranged the events according to the time nodes of halving cycle patterns, but it happens to be so coincidental and so magical. There are many uncertain factors, so please treat it rationally!

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