In the early morning, the US and Iran reached a peace agreement. Trump stated that the free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is approved, while authorizing the immediate lifting of the US Navy's blockade on Iran. The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister also confirmed that the text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been finalized and will be officially signed this Friday in Switzerland. The market welcomed this news with cheers, Bitcoin surged to around 66,000, and Ethereum rose to near 1730. Can the subsequent market continue to maintain a bullish trend?

Today's viewpoint: The rebound is not a reversal; the strategy of holding light positions and looking for short opportunities remains unchanged. Bitcoin's smaller time frame RSI has entered a seriously overbought area, and KDJ has started to turn downwards and diverge, showing signs of a potential death cross. The Jiang Feng Capital trend-following indicator currently shows it is close to the resistance area (as shown in the image below).

Here, light positions can be tried for short trades! Specific entry points for reference:
Resistance near 66,000, as well as around 66,666 and 68,500. Or enter light positions at the current price around 65,700 directly. Support can be found at 64,000～62,500～61,800～60,000 and near 59,300, with the ultimate target looking at 53,000～45,000 (spot range)

For Ethereum, focus on resistance near 1,740, as well as around 1,777 and 1,830. Or enter light short positions directly at the current price of 1,718. Support levels to watch are around 1,666～1,620～1,580 and near 1,500, with the ultimate target looking at 1,440～1,120 (spot range)

This type of price increase driven by news is not optimistic in my view. I believe that after the rebound, the market will continue to retrace. There may be some speculative trading in the days to come, but I think the real bottoming period will be around the end of the third quarter, making it more prudent to set up long positions then!

Note that all entry and exit points mentioned above may have deviation; Bitcoin ±100 points, Ethereum ±5 points, for reference only, and profit and loss are at your own risk! Remember to participate with light positions at this critical moment!

#Bitcoin Market Analysis

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