The World Cup has already started, and rather than declining, the market is rising. The following attention will also turn to Walsh's FOMC meeting; the data releases throughout June seem to be aligning with Walsh's statements. After chatting with everyone, it turns out that many do not understand what will happen in this meeting and what impact it will have on the cryptocurrency world. Those who have been active in the financial world for a long time have a long-term need to bid farewell to several leaders of the Federal Reserve. There will be a fear of the change, as every change brings negative effects, and this time is no exception. The core concern that has been heatedly discussed by Old Cui remains the issue of balance sheet reduction. As Powell's term comes to an end, the beginning of 2026 will mark the start of a period of expanding the balance sheet, and the surge in the Federal Reserve's repurchases of U.S. stocks is related to this. Why does Old Cui think that Walsh may take action on balance sheet reduction? The issue also lies in military influences; the rise in oil prices will force the Federal Reserve to control inflation, and increasing interest rates seems unlikely. If the rates are raised, it would lead to unemployment issues that cannot be concealed.

Especially during the Biden era, the overall economy has been declining until Trump took office. The trade war has escalated, and ironically, American jobs have increased, which does not align with financial logic. Additionally, the later exposure of fabricated employment figures, with no specific numbers provided, indicates that the actual figures are likely terrifying. Therefore, the primary element of Walsh's speech is to observe his true intentions and whether there is a tendency towards balance sheet reduction. What impact would reducing the balance sheet have? The Fed's total assets are approximately $6.71 trillion; if Walsh advocates for balance sheet reduction, the risk premium on long-term treasury bonds will rise, increasing pressure on U.S. treasury auctions, potentially leading to a double whammy in both stocks and bonds. If it is hard to understand, it can be simply likened to the chain reaction caused by domestic housing prices, with the most intuitive impact being on gold. Such actions will certainly cause Trump’s interest payment pressure to increase, and gold will revert from a non-yielding asset to a risk hedging asset. The short-term performance reflects the current feeling, with pressure limiting it, while in the medium-term, it is likely to reverse and rise. (The trend in the cryptocurrency market will be similar to gold.)

If there is no balance sheet reduction, it indicates a cushion for previous risks. What problems will cushion expectations lead to? Long-term risks will sharply increase, with funds unable to choose a direction, and the stock market will still collapse accordingly. Long-term treasury bonds will be sold off, and ultimately, the Fed will need to take action. Once Walsh weakens expectations, during a panic phase, funds will rush to buy dollars and short-term treasury bonds, while gold will face sell-offs in the short term. Remember that FOMC voters, the bond market, and fiscal pressures will also constrain Walsh, making it difficult for him to shake off the role of providing a cushion. Historically, this role shapes perspectives, and he cannot abandon it. Recent statements reveal changes brought about by his role shift, with more and more instances of strategic maneuvering. Whether delaying or implementing now, this phenomenon cannot be changed; a collapse is merely a matter of time. Is there a possibility that he might lower interest rates immediately upon taking office? Would he directly abandon the principle of controlling inflation at 2%?

If he truly were to operate that way, the risks would be even greater, directly leading to a loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve, with large amounts of capital fleeing to cash out. Therefore, this path can be directly ruled out; don't think that a collapse in the U.S. stock market will lead to a rise in the cryptocurrency market. Remember, the funds in the U.S. stock market are almost the same as those in the cryptocurrency market, with the same backers. This year's trends further illustrate that an increase in U.S. stocks might actually siphon funds from the cryptocurrency market, which resembles a pumping mechanism. Old Cui's estimate is likely to follow Powell's example, adopting a seemingly tough stance against Trump, establishing a personal image to gain time and space. The most likely scenario is a wave of interest rate cuts around the end of the year, releasing bearish signals in the meantime. Thus, in the short term, both gold and the cryptocurrency market will exhibit pressure, only to see a rise once more concrete bullish news arrives. At this stage, Walsh's primary task will undoubtedly be to seek stability rather than being aggressive.

Returning to the cryptocurrency market, the current approach is more inclined towards spot trading. Old Cui’s usual strategy involves taking small positions while waiting for large trends; heavy positions can only catch small fluctuations. Before entering a trade, first consider how much loss you can accept, and then think about how much profit this trade can make. Earlier estimates indicate the restorative strength of Bitcoin, observing stability in the range of $64,000 to $65,000; once it stabilizes, there will be a short-term rebound. Even if a sharp decline occurs, there will still be a capacity for recovery. Old Cui will never look at too low a price; previously, he didn't even see it dropping below $60,000, and this remains true now. As long as Walsh seeks stability, the cryptocurrency market won't experience retaliatory declines; once he releases a signal for stability, it will actually be good news for the cryptocurrency market. Recently, the competition for funds is primarily due to the World Cup and the emergence of quality stocks in the U.S. stock market. Everyone should be cautious about the U.S. stock market; the current speculation has some fluff, and the profitability of space companies requires serious monitoring, as they may not be able to realize profits in the short term. The restoration of the cryptocurrency market won't soar too high.

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